LEADER 05299nam 2200745Ia 450 001 996320213003316 005 20230120032440.0 010 $a1-283-13586-8 010 $a9786613135865 010 $a0-8330-5308-6 035 $a(CKB)2670000000095386 035 $a(EBL)726846 035 $a(OCoLC)735601867 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000523556 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11340869 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000523556 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10539895 035 $a(PQKB)10872421 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL726846 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10478463 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL4969962 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL313586 035 $a(OCoLC)743413600 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC726846 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000095386 100 $a20110503d2011 ua 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 00$aIran's nuclear future $ecritical U.S. policy choices /$fLynn E. Davis [et al.] 210 $aSanta Monica, CA $cRAND$d2011 215 $a1 online resource (xxv, 125 pages) $cillustrations, color maps (digital, PDF file) 225 1 $aRand Corporation monograph series ;$vMG-1087-AF 300 $a"MG-1087-AF". 300 $a"Prepared for the United States Air Force." 300 $a"RAND Project Air Force." 311 1 $a0-8330-5175-X 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; Chapter One Introduction; Study Objectives and Scope; Analysis Framework for the New Strategic Environment; Step 1: Conduct Regional Analyses; Step 2: Define Ways to Achieve U.S. Goals for Nuclear Dissuasion,Deterrence, and Reassurance; Step 3: Define and Assess Critical U.S. Policy Choices; Step 4: Describe U.S. Air Force Contributions; How Our Analytical Approach Differs from Others; Organization of This Monograph; Chapter Two Influencing Iran; Iran's National Security Interests 327 $aEnsuring Regime Survival Protecting the Homeland Against All External Threats; Expanding Regional Influence; Can Iran Be Expected to Act Rationally?; Iran's Nuclear Program: Prospects and Uncertainties; Internal Debate on the Future of Iran's Nuclear Program; Chapter Three Dissuading Iran from Nuclear Weaponization; Iranian Actions That the United States Wishes to Dissuade; Current U.S. Policies Toward Iran's Nuclear Program; Critical U.S. Policy Choices; Raise Costs; Provide Incentives; Conclusion; Chapter Four Deterring a Nuclear-Armed Iran; Iran's Military Behavior and Planning 327 $aHistorical Military Behavior Military Doctrine; Conventional Capabilities; Military Exercises; Paths to Conflict; Conflict in Response to International Pressures and Actions Perceived as Acts of War; Conflict in Response to a U.S. or Israeli Attack Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities; Conflict to Expand Regional Influence or Consolidate Domestic Power; Iran's Potential Use of Nuclear Weapons; Current U.S. Policies and Capabilities; Policy Choices for Deterring Iran's Use of Nuclear Weapons Against U.S. Military Forces; Deter by Managing Conflict Escalation 327 $aDeter by Raising the Costs of Using Nuclear Weapons by Threat of Retaliation Deter by Denying Iran the Benefits of Using Nuclear Weapons; Policy Choices for Deterring Iran's Use of Nuclear Weapons Against U.S. Regional Partners; Conclusion; Chapter Five Reassuring U.S. Regional Partners; The Setting; Views of the GCC States; Views of Israel; Current U.S. Policies for Reassurance; U.S. Reassurance Goal: Ensure Confidence in Credibility of a U.S. Nuclear Deterrent; Explicit and Public Security Guarantees; U.S. Conventional Forces; U.S. Nuclear-Related Military Activities; U.S. Nuclear Guarantee 327 $aConclusion Chapter Four Approaches to Influencing Iran; Approaches to Influencing Iran; Chapter : 7; Air Force Contributions and Preparing for the Future; The Way Ahead; Appendixes; A. Context for U.S. Reassurance Strategies: GCC; B. Context for U.S. Reassurance Strategies: Israel; Bibliography 330 $aAs Iran's nuclear program evolves, U.S. decision makers will confront a series of critical policy choices involving complex considerations and policy trade-offs. These policy choices could involve dissuading Iran from developing nuclear weapons; deterring Iran from using its nuclear weapons, if it were to acquire them; and reassuring U.S. regional partners. The U.S. Air Force will need to prepare to carry out whatever policies are chosen. 410 0$aRand Corporation monograph series. 606 $aNuclear arms control$zIran 606 $aNuclear weapons$zIran 607 $aIran$xForeign relations$zUnited States 607 $aIran$xStrategic aspects 607 $aUnited States$xForeign relations$zIran 607 $aUnited States$xMilitary policy 615 0$aNuclear arms control 615 0$aNuclear weapons 676 $a355.02/170955 700 $aDavis$b Lynn E$g(Lynn Etheridge),$f1943-$0247573 712 02$aProject Air Force (U.S.) 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a996320213003316 996 $aIran's nuclear future$92448171 997 $aUNISA