LEADER 04179nam 2200733 a 450 001 996320211603316 005 20210209220943.0 010 $a1-282-03321-2 010 $a9786612033216 010 $a0-8330-4636-5 035 $a(CKB)1000000000718893 035 $a(EBL)423171 035 $a(OCoLC)476261212 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000134744 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11147981 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000134744 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10076876 035 $a(PQKB)11696745 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC423171 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4970017 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL4970017 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL203321 035 $a(OCoLC)1027164475 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000718893 100 $a20080606d2008 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 00$aDangerous thresholds$b[electronic resource] $emanaging escalation in the 21st century /$fForrest E. Morgan ... [et al.] 210 $aSanta Monica, CA $cRAND Project Air Force$d2008 215 $a1 online resource (275 p.) 225 1 $aRand Corporation monograph series 300 $a"MG-614-AF"--P. [4] of cover. 300 $a"Prepared for the United States Air Force." 311 $a0-8330-4213-0 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 225-245). 327 $aCover; Preface; Contents; Figures; Summary; Acknowledgments; Glossary; CHAPTER ONE- Introduction; Background; Contemporary Challenges; Purpose of This Monograph; Organization and Approach; CHAPTER TWO- The Nature of Escalation; Understanding Escalation; Dimensions of Escalation: Vertical, Horizontal, and Political; Escalation Mechanisms; Complexity in Escalation; Motives for Escalation; Dynamics of Escalation; Escalation and Instability in the 21st Century; Anticipating and Managing Escalation; CHAPTER THREE- China's Thinking on Escalation: Evidence from Chinese Military Writings 327 $aIntroduction Background and Conceptual Issues; Understanding Chinese Views on Escalation and War Control; Assessing Chinese Escalation Behavior Through the Lens of the Second Artillery Doctrine; Second Artillery Nuclear Operations and Escalation; Second Artillery Conventional Missile Strike Campaigns; Chinese Views on Space Warfare and Escalation; Conclusion; CHAPTER FOUR- Regional Nuclear Powers; Escalation Risks Inherent in Emergent Nuclear Capability; Sources of Regional Instability; Conclusion; CHAPTER FIVE- Escalation in Irregular Warfare; Irregular Warfare's Many Paths of Escalation 327 $aEscalation in Stability Operations: Two Illustrative Cases Escalation in the Global Jihad; Escalation Management in the Struggle Against Global Jihad; Conclusion; CHAPTER SIX- Managing Escalation in a Complex World; The First Step in Managing Escalation Is Understanding Its Nature; Managing Escalation Risks in Today's World; Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force; APPENDIX A- China, Force, and Escalation: Continuities Between Historical Behavior and Contemporary Writings; APPENDIX B- Case Studies of Escalation in Stability Operations; APPENDIX C- Modified Method for Delphi Analyses 327 $aBibliography 330 $aThis analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global Jihad to inform escalation-related decision making. 410 0$aRand Corporation monograph series. 606 $aEscalation (Military science) 606 $aConflict management 606 $aSecurity, International$y21st century 606 $aWorld politics$y21st century 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aEscalation (Military science) 615 0$aConflict management. 615 0$aSecurity, International 615 0$aWorld politics 676 $a355.02 701 $aMorgan$b Forrest E$0879915 712 02$aProject Air Force (U.S.) 712 02$aUnited States.$bAir Force. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a996320211603316 996 $aDangerous thresholds$92874367 997 $aUNISA