LEADER 05507nam 2200757 a 450 001 9911020126603321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a9786611744328 010 $a9781281744326 010 $a1281744328 010 $a9780470399453 010 $a0470399457 010 $a9780470399446 010 $a0470399449 035 $a(CKB)1000000000550967 035 $a(EBL)706537 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000354131 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11277466 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000354131 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10302769 035 $a(PQKB)10121889 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000388426 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11288960 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000388426 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10423426 035 $a(PQKB)11413667 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC706537 035 $a(OCoLC)264621084 035 $a(Perlego)2758401 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000550967 100 $a20080417d2008 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 00$aElections and exit polling /$f[edited by] Fritz J. Scheuren, Wendy Alvey 210 $aHoboken, N.J. $cJohn Wiley & Sons$dc2008 215 $a1 online resource (333 p.) 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 08$a9780470291160 311 08$a0470291168 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and indexes. 327 $aElections and Exit Polling; Contents; Preface; Acknowledgments; Contributors; 1 Introduction; 1.1 INTRODUCTION; 1.2 DEFINITIONS; 1.3 BRIEF HISTORY; 1.4 A DAY IN THE LIFE OF AN EXIT POLL; 1.4.1 Excerpt from Election Night Estimation; 1.5 THEORY AND METHODOLOGY; 1.6 RECENT ELECTORAL APPLICATIONS; 1.7 SOME MAJOR LIMITATIONS; 1.8 RECOMMENDATIONS AND A FEW PREDICTIONS; 1.9 REFERENCES; 2 The Infamous 2000 Election; 2.1 INTRODUCTION; 2.2 ANALYSIS: LOOKING BACK; 2.2.1 Excerpt from: Reliability of the Uncertified Ballots in the 2000 Presidential Elections in Florida 327 $a2.2.2 Excerpt from: Predicting the Bus/Gore Election from the Press: The Cost to George W. Bush of His November Surprise of an Old Arrest2.3 DATA QUALITY; 2.3.1 Applying AAPOR's Final Disposition Codes and Outcome Rates to the 2000 Utah Colleges' Exit Poll; 2.3.2 Party Identification Weighting: Experiments to Improve Survey Quality; 2.4 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS; 3 2004: Fraudulent Election?; 3.1 INTRODUCTION; 3.2 THE GREAT ELECTION DEBATE; 3.2.1 Excerpt from: Evaluation of Ediso/Mitofsky Election System 2004; 3.2.2 The Argument for Fraud 327 $a3.2.3 Excerpt from: Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism: Surveying the 2004 Election Debate3.3 CONFIDENTIALITY-ANOTHER SIDE OF THE CONTROVERSY; 3.3.1 Excerpt from: Explaining Discrepancies between Official Votes and Exit Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election; 3.4 FURTHER RESEARCH; 3.4.1 Ohio Election Analysis; 3.5 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS; 4 Mid-Term Elections: 2006; 4.1 INTRODUCTION; 4.2 PRE-ELECTION POLLS; 4.2.1 Poll and Races: The Impact of Methods and Conditions on the Accuracy of 2006 Pre-Election Polls 327 $a4.2.2 Excerpt from: A New Age Solution for an Age-old Problem: Mining Data for Likely Voters4.2.3 Excerpt from: Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls; 4.3 REFERENDA ON THE BALLOT; 4.3.1 The Role of Direct Democracy in California Governance: Public Opinion on Making Policy at the Ballot Box; 4.4 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS; 5 Globe-trotting Consultant; 5.1 INTRODUCTION; 5.2 A HISTORICAL LOOK AT EXIT POLLS FROM A MEXICAN PERSPECTIVE; 5.2.1 Excerpt from: Exit Polls as Valuable Tools to Understand Voting Behavior: Using an Advanced Design in Mexico-History 327 $a5.3 MUSLIM OPINIONS ON POLITICAL REFORM5.3.1 Excerpt From: Muslims and Democracy: Stability and Change in Public Opinions; 5.4 A MEXICAN CASE STUDY; 5.4.1 Excerpt from: Nonresponse in Exit Poll Methodology: A Case Study in Mexico-Mixed Modes; 5.4.2 Excerpt from: Nonresponse in Exit Poll Methodology: A Case Study in Mexico-Nonignorable Response; 5.4.3 Excerpt from: Exit Polls as Valuable Tools to Understand Voting Behavior: Using an Advanced Design in Mexico-Measurement Error; 5.5 PRE-ELECTION POLLING IN NAGANO, JAPAN 327 $a5.5.1 Differently Administered Questionnaires: Findings from Surveys of Asahi Shimbun for the 2006 Nagano Gubernatorial Election 330 $a""An understanding of the relationship between the product and the process in election polling is often lost. This edited volume unites ideas and researchers, with quality playing the central role.""--J. Michael Brick, PhD, Director of the Survey Methods Unit, Westat, Inc.Elections and Exit Polling is a truly unique examination of the specialized surveys that are currently used to track and collect data on elections and voter preferences. Employing modern research from the past decade and a series of interviews with famed American pollster Warren Mitofsky (1934-2006), this volume p 606 $aExit polling (Elections) 606 $aVoting research 606 $aElection forecasting$xData processing 615 0$aExit polling (Elections) 615 0$aVoting research. 615 0$aElection forecasting$xData processing. 676 $a324.973 701 $aScheuren$b Fritz$01838031 701 $aAlvey$b Wendy$01838032 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9911020126603321 996 $aElections and exit polling$94416923 997 $aUNINA