LEADER 05481oam 22014414 450 001 9910975151503321 005 20250426110808.0 010 $a9786613830029 010 $a9781462330645 010 $a1462330649 010 $a9781452701721 010 $a1452701725 010 $a9781283517577 010 $a1283517574 010 $a9781451908374 010 $a1451908377 035 $a(CKB)3360000000443928 035 $a(EBL)3014395 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940842 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11545386 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940842 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10955968 035 $a(PQKB)10296634 035 $a(OCoLC)698585661 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2006041 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3014395 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2006041 035 $aWPIEA2006041 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443928 100 $a20020129d2006 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aForecasting ECB Monetary Policy : $eAccuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography /$fMichael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, Helge Berger 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2006. 215 $a1 online resource (42 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"February 2006". 311 08$a9781451863017 311 08$a1451863012 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. DATA AND SOME STYLIZED FACTS""; ""III. THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHY, MACRO CONDITIONS, AND HISTORY""; ""IV. DECOMPOSITION OF THE FORECASTING ERRORS""; ""V. CONCLUSIONS""; ""References"" 330 3 $aMonetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2006/041 606 $aMonetary policy$zEuropean Union countries 606 $aBanking$2imf 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aBanks and banking$2imf 606 $aBanks$2imf 606 $aCentral bank autonomy$2imf 606 $aCentral bank policy rate$2imf 606 $aCentral Banks and Their Policies$2imf 606 $aCentral banks$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aDepository Institutions$2imf 606 $aEvent Studies$2imf 606 $aFinancial services$2imf 606 $aIncome economics$2imf 606 $aIndustrial production$2imf 606 $aIndustries$2imf 606 $aIndustries: General$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aInformation and Market Efficiency$2imf 606 $aInterest rates$2imf 606 $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf 606 $aLabor$2imf 606 $aLabour$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aMicro Finance Institutions$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy$2imf 606 $aMortgages$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aUnemployment$2imf 606 $aUnemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search$2imf 607 $aEuropean Union countries$xEconomic policy 607 $aUnited Kingdom$2imf 615 0$aMonetary policy 615 7$aBanking 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aBanks and banking 615 7$aBanks 615 7$aCentral bank autonomy 615 7$aCentral bank policy rate 615 7$aCentral Banks and Their Policies 615 7$aCentral banks 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aDepository Institutions 615 7$aEvent Studies 615 7$aFinancial services 615 7$aIncome economics 615 7$aIndustrial production 615 7$aIndustries 615 7$aIndustries: General 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aInformation and Market Efficiency 615 7$aInterest rates 615 7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 615 7$aLabor 615 7$aLabour 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aMicro Finance Institutions 615 7$aMonetary Policy 615 7$aMortgages 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aUnemployment 615 7$aUnemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search 700 $aEhrmann$b Michael$0146600 701 $aBerger$b Helge$01803593 701 $aFratzscher$b Marcel$01815660 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910975151503321 996 $aForecasting ECB Monetary Policy$94371127 997 $aUNINA