LEADER 03957nam 22006734a 450 001 9910974606503321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a9780674039162 010 $a0674039165 024 7 $a10.4159/9780674039162 035 $a(CKB)1000000000786819 035 $a(OCoLC)435542327 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebrary10314232 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000217153 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11197960 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000217153 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10202411 035 $a(PQKB)11687814 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3300223 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3300223 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10314232 035 $a(OCoLC)923109664 035 $a(DE-B1597)589746 035 $a(DE-B1597)9780674039162 035 $a(OCoLC)1322125707 035 $a(Perlego)1146953 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000786819 100 $a20040420d2004 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aOverconfidence and war $ethe havoc and glory of positive illusions /$fDominic D.P. Johnson 210 $aCambridge, Mass. $cHarvard University Press$d2004 215 $a1 online resource (289 p.) 300 $aBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph 311 08$a9780674015760 311 08$a0674015762 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 239-269) and index. 327 $tFrontmatter -- $tContents -- $t1 War and Illusions -- $t2 Looking for Illusions -- $t3 World War I -- $t4 The Munich Crisis -- $t5 The Cuban Missile Crisis -- $t6 Vietnam -- $t7 Vanity Dies Hard -- $t8 Iraq, 2003 -- $tAppendix -- $tNotes -- $tAcknowledgments -- $tIndex 330 $aOpponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War, states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war. Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century history: two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions. The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly. 606 $aWar$xPsychological aspects 606 $aWar$xCauses 606 $aMilitary history, Modern$y20th century 606 $aMilitary history, Modern$y21st century 615 0$aWar$xPsychological aspects. 615 0$aWar$xCauses. 615 0$aMilitary history, Modern 615 0$aMilitary history, Modern 676 $a355.02/7 700 $aJohnson$b Dominic D. P.$f1974-$01808321 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910974606503321 996 $aOverconfidence and war$94364368 997 $aUNINA LEADER 01086nam0-2200277 --450 001 9911043826103321 005 20251205112050.0 010 $a978-88-288-5790-7 100 $a20251205d2025----kmuy0itay5050 ba 101 0 $aita 102 $aIT 105 $a 001yy 200 1 $aStrumenti di tutela del padre nella separazione e nel divorzio$ele novità del correttivo Cartabia (d.lgs. n. 164/2024), l'addebito della separazione, la revoca del mantenimento, la restituzione della casa coniugale, la tutela dei diritti genitoriali del padre$fdi Vito Amendolagine e Maurizio Tarantino 210 $aMilano$cGiuffrè$d2025 215 $a77 p.$d28 225 1 $aOfficina del diritto. Famiglia e successioni 676 $a346.450166$v23$zita 700 1$aAmendolagine,$bVito$0517543 701 1$aTarantino,$bMaurizio$0184077 801 0$aIT$bUNINA$gREICAT$2UNIMARC 901 $aBK 912 $a9911043826103321 952 $aVIII C 441 (17)$b2025/1887$fFGBC 959 $aFGBC 996 $aStrumenti di tutela del padre nella separazione e nel divorzio$94463917 997 $aUNINA