LEADER 06038oam 22013814 450 001 9910973991103321 005 20250426110137.0 010 $a9786612844201 010 $a9781462375943 010 $a1462375944 010 $a9781282844209 010 $a1282844202 010 $a9781452728872 010 $a1452728879 010 $a9781451873610 010 $a1451873611 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055361 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940095 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11528466 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940095 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10949251 035 $a(PQKB)10175152 035 $a(OCoLC)694140988 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009214 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608844 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2009214 035 $aWPIEA2009214 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055361 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aConstructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis /$fKevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a23 p. $cill 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"September 2009." 311 08$a9781451917833 311 08$a145191783X 327 $aIntro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Model Structure -- 2.1 Overview -- 2.2 Model components -- 2.2.1 Variable definitions -- 2.2.2 Underlying equilibrium values and stochastic processes -- 2.2.3 Bank lending tightening -- 2.2.4 Output gap -- 2.2.5 Unemployment -- 2.2.6 Inflation -- 2.2.7 Policy rule for the interest rate -- 2.2.8 Exchange rate -- 2.2.9 Variance and coviariance of disturbances -- III. GPM-Generated Confidence Bands -- 3.1 Construction -- 3.2 U.S. inflation -- 3.3 U.S. interest rate -- 3.4 U.S. output gap -- 3.5 Bank lending tightening -- IV. Conclusions -- References -- Figures -- 1. U.S. Year-on Year CPI Inflation -- 2. U.S. Interest Rate -- 3. U.S. Output Gap -- 4. Bank Lending Tightening -- 5. Oil Price. 330 3 $aWe derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period, and that severe credit conditions might persist. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/214 606 $aGlobal Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 606 $aFinancial crises$zUnited States$xEconometric models 606 $aFinancial crises$zEuropean Union countries$xEconometric models 606 $aFinancial crises$zJapan$xEconometric models 606 $aPetroleum products$xPrices$zUnited States$xEconometric models 606 $aPetroleum products$xPrices$zEuropean Union countries$xEconometric models 606 $aPetroleum products$xPrices$zJapan$xEconometric models 606 $aInterest rates$zUnited States$xEconometric models 606 $aInterest rates$zEuropean Union countries$xEconometric models 606 $aInterest rates$zJapan$xEconometric models 606 $aBank loans$zUnited States$xEconometric models 606 $aBank loans$zEuropean Union countries$xEconometric models 606 $aBank loans$zJapan$xEconometric models 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aOutput gap$2imf 606 $aPotential output$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aProduction and Operations Management$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aReal exchange rates$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aGlobal Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. 615 0$aFinancial crises$xEconometric models. 615 0$aFinancial crises$xEconometric models. 615 0$aFinancial crises$xEconometric models. 615 0$aPetroleum products$xPrices$xEconometric models. 615 0$aPetroleum products$xPrices$xEconometric models. 615 0$aPetroleum products$xPrices$xEconometric models. 615 0$aInterest rates$xEconometric models. 615 0$aInterest rates$xEconometric models. 615 0$aInterest rates$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBank loans$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBank loans$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBank loans$xEconometric models. 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEconomic theory 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aOutput gap 615 7$aPotential output 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aProduction and Operations Management 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aReal exchange rates 676 $a330.9;330.90511 700 $aClinton$b Kevin$0185170 701 $aChen$b Huigang$01815876 701 $aJohnson$b Marianne$01816509 701 $aKamenik$b Ondrej$01815841 701 $aLaxton$b Douglas$01594457 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910973991103321 996 $aConstructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis$94372637 997 $aUNINA LEADER 06603nam 22008175 450 001 9910484249403321 005 20251226195900.0 010 $a3-662-44522-0 024 7 $a10.1007/978-3-662-44522-8 035 $a(CKB)3710000000219541 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001338778 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11860058 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001338778 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11345531 035 $a(PQKB)10363168 035 $a(DE-He213)978-3-662-44522-8 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC5578961 035 $a(PPN)180626167 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000219541 100 $a20140812d2014 u| 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurnn#008mamaa 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aMathematical Foundations of Computer Science 2014 $e39th International Symposium, MFCS 2014, Budapest, Hungary, August 26-29, 2014. Proceedings, Part I /$fedited by Ersébet Csuhaj-Varjú, Martin Dietzfelbinger, Zoltán Ésik 205 $a1st ed. 2014. 210 1$aBerlin, Heidelberg :$cSpringer Berlin Heidelberg :$cImprint: Springer,$d2014. 215 $a1 online resource (XXVI, 561 p. 65 illus.) 225 1 $aTheoretical Computer Science and General Issues,$x2512-2029 ;$v8634 300 $aBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph 311 08$a3-662-44521-2 320 $aIncludes bibliographic references and index. 327 $aTable of Contents - Volume I.-Invited contributions -- Partial-Observation Stochastic Reachability and Parity Games -- Every graph is easy or hard: dichotomy theorems for graph problems -- Computer Poker and Computational Game Theory -- Random Deterministic Automata -- Communication Complexity Theory: Thirty-Five Years of Set Disjointness -- What does the local structure of a planar graph tell us about its global structure? -- Logic, Semantics, Automata and Theory of Programming -- Choiceless Polynomial Time on structures with small Abelian colour Classes -- Sofic-Dyck shifts -- A Logical Characterization of Timed (non-)Regular Languages -- Asymptotic Monadic Second-Order Logic -- Towards Efficient Reasoning Under Guarded-based Disjunctive Existential Rules -- Alternating Parity Krivine Automata -- Advances in Parametric Real-Time Reasoning -- Universal Lyndon Words -- Subword complexity and decomposition of the set of factors -- Cyclic Complexity of Words -- Classifying Recognizable Infinitary Trace Languages Using Word Automata -- Bounded variable logic, parameterized logarithmic space, and Savitch?s Theorem -- An algebraic characterization of unary two-way transducers -- Size-Change Abstraction and Max-Plus Automata -- Alternating Vector Addition Systems with States -- Information Rate of Some Classes of Non-regular Languages: An Automata-theoretic Approach -- Relating Nominal and Higher-Order Rewriting -- Expressivity and Succinctness of Order-Invariant Logics on Depth-Bounded Structures -- Two Recursively Inseparable Problems for Probabilistic Automata -- Monadic Second-Order Logic with Arbitrary Monadic Predicates -- Transforming two-way alternating finite automata to one-way nondeterministic automata -- Measure Properties of Game Tree Languages -- On Upper and Lower Bounds on the Length of Alternating Towers -- LaxF: Side Conditions and External Evidence as Monads -- The monoid of queue actions -- Undecidable properties of self-affine sets and multi-tape automata -- Complexity andExpressivity of Uniform One-Dimensional Fragment with Equality -- A Unifying Approach for Multistack Pushdown Automata -- Definability and Transformations for Cost Logics and Automatic Structures -- Generalised Lyndon-Schützenberger Equations -- Complexity of Equivalence and Learning for Multiplicity Tree Automata -- Monadic datalog and regular tree pattern queries -- Model Checking Concurrent Recursive Programs using Temporal Logics -- Decidability of the interval temporal logic AABB over the rationals -- Reachability in Pushdown Register Automata -- A Generalization of the ?os-Tarski Preservation Theorem over Classes of Finite Structures -- Determinising Parity Automata -- Tight Bounds for Complementing Parity Automata -- On Infinite Words Determined by Indexed Languages -- A Pumping Lemma for Two-Way Finite Transducers -- Tractability Frontier for Dually-Closed Ord-Horn Quantified Constraint Satisfaction Problems -- The Dynamic Descriptive Complexity of k-Clique. 330 $aThis two volume set LNCS 8634 and LNCS 8635 constitutes the refereed conference proceedings of the 39th International Symposium on Mathematical Foundations of Computer Science, MFCS 2014, held in Budapest, Hungary, in August 2014. The 95 revised full papers presented together with 6 invited talks were carefully selected from 270 submissions. The focus of the conference was on following topics: Logic, Semantics, Automata, Theory of Programming, Algorithms, Complexity,  Parallel and Distributed Computing, Quantum Computing, Automata, Grammars and Formal Languages, Combinatorics on Words, Trees and Games. 410 0$aTheoretical Computer Science and General Issues,$x2512-2029 ;$v8634 606 $aAlgorithms 606 $aComputer science$xMathematics 606 $aDiscrete mathematics 606 $aNumerical analysis 606 $aArtificial intelligence$xData processing 606 $aMachine theory 606 $aAlgorithms 606 $aDiscrete Mathematics in Computer Science 606 $aNumerical Analysis 606 $aData Science 606 $aFormal Languages and Automata Theory 606 $aMathematical Applications in Computer Science 615 0$aAlgorithms. 615 0$aComputer science$xMathematics. 615 0$aDiscrete mathematics. 615 0$aNumerical analysis. 615 0$aArtificial intelligence$xData processing. 615 0$aMachine theory. 615 14$aAlgorithms. 615 24$aDiscrete Mathematics in Computer Science. 615 24$aNumerical Analysis. 615 24$aData Science. 615 24$aFormal Languages and Automata Theory. 615 24$aMathematical Applications in Computer Science. 676 $a004.0151 702 $aCsuhaj-Varju?$b E$4edt$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/edt 702 $aDietzfelbinger$b Martin$4edt$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/edt 702 $aE?sik$b Zolta?n$f1951-$4edt$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/edt 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910484249403321 996 $aMathematical Foundations of Computer Science 2014$92829787 997 $aUNINA