LEADER 06038oam 22013814 450 001 9910973991103321 005 20250426110137.0 010 $a9786612844201 010 $a9781462375943 010 $a1462375944 010 $a9781282844209 010 $a1282844202 010 $a9781452728872 010 $a1452728879 010 $a9781451873610 010 $a1451873611 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055361 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940095 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11528466 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940095 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10949251 035 $a(PQKB)10175152 035 $a(OCoLC)694140988 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009214 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608844 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2009214 035 $aWPIEA2009214 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055361 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aConstructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis /$fKevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a23 p. $cill 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"September 2009." 311 08$a9781451917833 311 08$a145191783X 327 $aIntro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Model Structure -- 2.1 Overview -- 2.2 Model components -- 2.2.1 Variable definitions -- 2.2.2 Underlying equilibrium values and stochastic processes -- 2.2.3 Bank lending tightening -- 2.2.4 Output gap -- 2.2.5 Unemployment -- 2.2.6 Inflation -- 2.2.7 Policy rule for the interest rate -- 2.2.8 Exchange rate -- 2.2.9 Variance and coviariance of disturbances -- III. GPM-Generated Confidence Bands -- 3.1 Construction -- 3.2 U.S. inflation -- 3.3 U.S. interest rate -- 3.4 U.S. output gap -- 3.5 Bank lending tightening -- IV. Conclusions -- References -- Figures -- 1. U.S. Year-on Year CPI Inflation -- 2. U.S. Interest Rate -- 3. U.S. Output Gap -- 4. Bank Lending Tightening -- 5. Oil Price. 330 3 $aWe derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period, and that severe credit conditions might persist. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/214 606 $aGlobal Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 606 $aFinancial crises$zUnited States$xEconometric models 606 $aFinancial crises$zEuropean Union countries$xEconometric models 606 $aFinancial crises$zJapan$xEconometric models 606 $aPetroleum products$xPrices$zUnited States$xEconometric models 606 $aPetroleum products$xPrices$zEuropean Union countries$xEconometric models 606 $aPetroleum products$xPrices$zJapan$xEconometric models 606 $aInterest rates$zUnited States$xEconometric models 606 $aInterest rates$zEuropean Union countries$xEconometric models 606 $aInterest rates$zJapan$xEconometric models 606 $aBank loans$zUnited States$xEconometric models 606 $aBank loans$zEuropean Union countries$xEconometric models 606 $aBank loans$zJapan$xEconometric models 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aOutput gap$2imf 606 $aPotential output$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aProduction and Operations Management$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aReal exchange rates$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aGlobal Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. 615 0$aFinancial crises$xEconometric models. 615 0$aFinancial crises$xEconometric models. 615 0$aFinancial crises$xEconometric models. 615 0$aPetroleum products$xPrices$xEconometric models. 615 0$aPetroleum products$xPrices$xEconometric models. 615 0$aPetroleum products$xPrices$xEconometric models. 615 0$aInterest rates$xEconometric models. 615 0$aInterest rates$xEconometric models. 615 0$aInterest rates$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBank loans$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBank loans$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBank loans$xEconometric models. 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEconomic theory 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aOutput gap 615 7$aPotential output 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aProduction and Operations Management 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aReal exchange rates 676 $a330.9;330.90511 700 $aClinton$b Kevin$0185170 701 $aChen$b Huigang$01815876 701 $aJohnson$b Marianne$01816509 701 $aKamenik$b Ondrej$01815841 701 $aLaxton$b Douglas$01594457 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910973991103321 996 $aConstructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis$94372637 997 $aUNINA