LEADER 05460oam 22012134 450 001 9910971217203321 005 20250426110708.0 010 $a9786612844386 010 $a9781462316410 010 $a1462316417 010 $a9781452706672 010 $a1452706670 010 $a9781451873849 010 $a1451873840 010 $a9781282844384 010 $a1282844385 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055378 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940822 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11967053 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940822 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10955591 035 $a(PQKB)11297535 035 $a(OCoLC)694140991 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009237 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608858 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2009237 035 $aWPIEA2009237 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055378 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aFiscal Deficits and Current Account Deficits /$fMichael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a23 p. $cill 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"October 2009". 311 08$a9781451918021 311 08$a145191802X 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- 1. IMF WEO and CBO Baseline Deficit and Debt Projections for the United States -- 2. CBO Long-Term Projections for U.S. Fiscal Deficits and Debt -- II. The Model -- A. Households -- 3. Dissaving and the Role of the Planning Horizon -- B. Firms -- 1. Manufacturers -- 2. Distributors -- 3. Retailers -- C. Government -- 1. Budget Constraint -- 2. Fiscal Policy -- 3. Monetary Policy -- D. Equilibrium and Balance of Payments -- III. Calibration -- IV. Permanent Increases in Fiscal Deficits -- A. U.S. Fiscal Deficits -- 4. One Percentage Point Deficit Shock, Instrument = Taxation, Part I -- 5. One Percentage Point Deficit Shock, Instrument = Taxation, Part II -- 6. One Percentage Point Deficit Shock, Instrument = Taxation, Part III -- 7. Current Account Deficit and the Planning Horizon -- 8. Real Interest Rate and the Planning Horizon -- B. Sensitivity Analysis -- C. Small Open Economies -- 9. One Percentage Point Deficit Shock in a Small Open Economy -- 10. Large Open Economy Dissaving -- 11. Small Open Economy Dissaving -- V. Conclusion -- References -- Footnotes. 330 3 $aThe effectiveness of recent fiscal stimulus packages significantly depends on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, fiscal deficits can have worrisome implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they significantly raise the world real interest rate. Second, they cause a short run current account deterioration equal to around 50 percent of the fiscal deficit deterioration. Third, the longer run current account deterioration equals almost 75 percent for a large economy such as the United States, and almost 100 percent for a small open economy. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/237 606 $aFinance, Public$xEconometric models 606 $aDebts, Public 606 $aAccounts current 606 $aFiscal policy 606 $aBalance of payments$2imf 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aCurrent Account Adjustment$2imf 606 $aCurrent account deficits$2imf 606 $aCurrent account$2imf 606 $aDebt Management$2imf 606 $aDebt$2imf 606 $aDebts, Public$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aGovernment debt management$2imf 606 $aInterest rates$2imf 606 $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aPublic debt$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aReal interest rates$2imf 606 $aShort-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aSovereign Debt$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aFinance, Public$xEconometric models. 615 0$aDebts, Public. 615 0$aAccounts current. 615 0$aFiscal policy. 615 7$aBalance of payments 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aCurrent Account Adjustment 615 7$aCurrent account deficits 615 7$aCurrent account 615 7$aDebt Management 615 7$aDebt 615 7$aDebts, Public 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aGovernment debt management 615 7$aInterest rates 615 7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aPublic debt 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aReal interest rates 615 7$aShort-term Capital Movements 615 7$aSovereign Debt 676 $a338.973 700 $aKumhof$b Michael$01815645 701 $aLaxton$b Douglas$01594457 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910971217203321 996 $aFiscal Deficits and Current Account Deficits$94372880 997 $aUNINA