LEADER 08325oam 22011894 450 001 9910971216303321 005 20250426110946.0 010 $a9786612844928 010 $a9781462393091 010 $a1462393098 010 $a9781282844926 010 $a128284492X 010 $a9781451942026 010 $a1451942028 010 $a9781452756110 010 $a1452756112 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055393 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001477863 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11902602 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477863 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11453293 035 $a(PQKB)11758370 035 $a(OCoLC)680613482 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009260 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1605984 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2009260 035 $aWPIEA2009260 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055393 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aImproving Surveillance Across the CEMAC Region /$fPlamen Iossifov, Misa Takebe, Zaijin Zhan, Noriaki Kinoshita, Robert York 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a57 p. $cill 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"November 2009." 311 08$a9781451918212 311 08$a1451918216 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aIntro -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- I. Introduction -- II. Institutional Background and Features -- A. Macroeconomic Policies in the CEMAC Region -- B. Policy Coordination and Surveillance -- III. Improving the Measures of Fiscal Surveillance -- A. Fiscal Policy Objectives and Indicators -- B. Indicators of Policy Stance and Policy Change -- C. Indicators of Sustainability -- D. Implications for Fiscal Surveillance -- IV. External Shocks and the Convergence Criteria -- A. External Shocks and Growth -- B. The Efficacy of Fiscal Policies in Mitigating Shocks -- C. Implications for Regional Surveillance -- V. External Stability Considerations and Regional Surveillance -- A. Consistency of the CEMAC Fiscal Convergence Criteria with External Stability -- B. The Desirability of a Foreign Reserves Target -- C. Long-run Considerations in Regional Surveillance -- VI. Summary and Policy Implications -- Boxes -- 1. Brief Economic History of the Central African CFA Zone -- 2. Overview of the Optimum Currency Area Literature -- 3. BEAC Monetary Programming -- 4. Characteristics of Oil Revenue in the CEMAC -- 5. CEMAC Convergence Criteria -- 6. Fiscal Stance and Fiscal Impulse -- 7. The Primary Gap Measure -- 8. Constant Fiscal Expenditure Rule for Oil Producing Countries -- 9. Measuring the Impact of Exogenous Shocks on the Non-oil Economy -- 10. Measuring the Impact of Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policies on the Non-oil Economy -- Tables -- 1. CEMAC Fiscal Developments and the Fiscal Convergence Criteria, 1998-2008 -- 2. A Comparison of CEMAC Fiscal Indicators, 2000-08 (in percent of GDP) -- 3. A Comparison of CEMAC Fiscal Indicators, 2000- -- 4. Primary Gap Measures Across the CEMAC, 1998-2008 -- 5. CEMAC Long-term Macroeconomic Assumptions -- 6. CEMAC Average Sustainable Non-oil Primary Deficit Under Different Fiscal Rules, 2009-48. 327 $a7. Real Non-oil GDP Growth in CEMAC Countries, 1980-2008 -- 8. Correlation of Real GDP Growth Among CEMAC Countries, 1980-2008 -- 9. Triggers of Recessions in CEMAC Countries, selected periods -- 10. Correlation Between Non-oil Real GDP and External Factors, 1980-2008 -- 11. Correlation Between GDP, Public Expenditure, and Non-oil Revenue -- 12. Average Share of Non-oil Revenue and Expenditure in Non-oil GDP, 1980-2008 -- 13. Variance Decomposition of Real GDP by Types of Shocks -- 14. CEMAC Share of Oil Revenue in Total Revenue and Correlation Between Fiscal and External Balances -- 15. CEMAC Currency Coverage Ratio, 2000-08 -- 16. CEMAC Gross Official Reserves, 2000-08 -- Figures -- 1. CEMAC Real and Fiscal Developments, 1969-2008 -- 2. CEMAC Terms of Trade and Balance of Payments Developments, 1969-2008 -- 3. CEMAC Net International Reserve Coverage of Imports, 1995-2008 -- 4. CEMAC Fiscal Policy and Procyclicality vis-à-vis Oil Revenue, 1980-2008 -- 5. Nominal and Real Crude Oil (Spot) Prices, 1970-2014 -- 6. CEMAC Non-oil Real GDP Growth and the Fiscal Impulse, 1995-2008 -- 7. CEMAC External Debt and the Primary Gap, 1998-2008 -- 8. CEMAC Sustainable Non-oil Primary Deficit Under Different Fiscal Rules, 2009-13 -- 9. CEMAC Sensitivity of the Sustainable Non-oil Primary Deficit to Oil Prices Under a Permanent Income Hypothesis, 2009-13 -- 10. Terms of Trade and Real Effective Exchange Rates, 1980-2008 -- 11. Impulse Response of Output to a One Standard Deviation Change in Terms of Trade and Real Effective Exchange Rate Shocks -- 12. Impulse Response of Output to a One Standard Deviation Change in Revenue and Spending Shocks -- 13. CEMAC Overall Fiscal Balance and External Current Account Balance, 1996-2008 -- 14. CEMAC Countries Overall Fiscal Balance and External Current Account Balance, 1996-2008. 327 $a15. CEMAC Foreign Assets of BEAC and Government Deposits at BEAC, 1995-2008 -- Appendix -- Linkages Between Fiscal and Monetary Policies in a Non-Renewable Resource Producer under a Fixed Exchange Rate -- References. 330 3 $aIn this paper, we consider the design of the surveillance, and, in particular, the fiscal criteria in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) with the view to ensuring they are consistent with internal and external sustainability. This consistency is important within a monetary union because fiscal policy is the primary instrument through which national governments can influence macroeconomic performance. We comment on how surveillance might be improved by broadening the region's current criteria through alternative fiscal indicators, some focus on the scope and nature of external shocks, and attention to the consistency of policies in assuring the viability of the union and its fixed exchange rate regime. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/260 606 $aMonetary policy$zAfrica, Central 606 $aMonetary unions$zAfrica, Central 606 $aBanks and banking$zAfrica, Central 606 $aBusiness Taxes and Subsidies$2imf 606 $aEnergy: General$2imf 606 $aExpenditure$2imf 606 $aExpenditures, Public$2imf 606 $aFiscal Policy$2imf 606 $aFiscal policy$2imf 606 $aFiscal stance$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aInvestments: Energy$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General$2imf 606 $aOil$2imf 606 $aOil, gas and mining taxes$2imf 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aTaxation$2imf 607 $aAfrica, Central$xEconomic integration$xHistory 607 $aEquatorial Guinea, Republic of$2imf 615 0$aMonetary policy 615 0$aMonetary unions 615 0$aBanks and banking 615 7$aBusiness Taxes and Subsidies 615 7$aEnergy: General 615 7$aExpenditure 615 7$aExpenditures, Public 615 7$aFiscal Policy 615 7$aFiscal policy 615 7$aFiscal stance 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aInvestments: Energy 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General 615 7$aOil 615 7$aOil, gas and mining taxes 615 7$aPetroleum industry and trade 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aTaxation 676 $a332.4;332.496751 700 $aIossifov$b Plamen$01815849 701 $aKinoshita$b Noriaki$01815850 701 $aTakebe$b Misa$01815851 701 $aYork$b Robert$01092056 701 $aZhan$b Zaijin$01599358 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bAfrican Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910971216303321 996 $aImproving Surveillance Across the CEMAC Region$94371382 997 $aUNINA