LEADER 05450oam 22012014 450 001 9910970756303321 005 20250426110117.0 010 $a9786612840951 010 $a9781462380015 010 $a1462380018 010 $a9781452781372 010 $a1452781370 010 $a9781451870022 010 $a1451870027 010 $a9781282840959 010 $a1282840959 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055038 035 $a(EBL)1607890 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000943268 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11523888 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943268 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10977403 035 $a(PQKB)11311479 035 $a(OCoLC)568151216 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607890 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2008144 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2008144 035 $aWPIEA2008144 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055038 100 $a20020129d2008 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aSudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance /$fJun Kim 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008. 215 $a1 online resource (36 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"June 2008." 311 08$a9781451914559 311 08$a1451914555 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 34). 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; III. Model Calibration; IV. Concluding Remarks; Text Tables; 1. Actual and Calibrated Optimal Reserves for Selected EM Countries: 1993-2006; 2. Implied Probability of a Sudden Stop for Selected EM Countries: 1994-2007; 3. IMF Arrangements for Selected EM Countries: 1993-2006; Text Figures; 1. Actual and Calibrated Optimal Reserves for Selected EM Countries: 1993-; A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey; 2. Implied Probability of a Sudden Stop for Selected EM Countries: 1994-; A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey 327 $a3. Actual ? and Default Threshold ?* for Selected EM Countries: 1993-A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey; 4. Sources of Reserve Accumulation for Selected EM Countries: 1993-; A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey; Appendix: Creditor Coordination Problem; References 330 3 $aThis paper presents a simple model of optimal reserves that can be easily calibrated to compute optimal reserves as well as the implied probability of a sudden stop for given reserves. The model builds upon the global games framework of Morris and Shin to establish a unique relationship between the probability of a sudden stop and the level of reserves. The calibration results for 15 selected emerging market countries in Latin America, Asia and other regions over the sample period of 1993-2006 suggest that the risk of sudden stops may have declined to a low level in recent years in all countries in the sample. The results also suggest that Asia and Russia may have been significantly over insured since early 2000s with estimated excess reserves of US$ 1 trillion in total at end-2006. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2008/144 606 $aBank reserves$zDeveloping countries$xEconometric models 606 $aFinancial crises$zDeveloping countries$xEconometric models 606 $aBalance of payments$2imf 606 $aBanking$2imf 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aCapital account crisis$2imf 606 $aCapital movements$2imf 606 $aCurrent Account Adjustment$2imf 606 $aCurrent account$2imf 606 $aEmerging and frontier financial markets$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aFinance: General$2imf 606 $aFinancial services industry$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange reserves$2imf 606 $aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aInternational Investment$2imf 606 $aLong-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy$2imf 606 $aReserves accumulation$2imf 606 $aShort-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aSudden stops$2imf 607 $aTurkey$2imf 615 0$aBank reserves$xEconometric models. 615 0$aFinancial crises$xEconometric models. 615 7$aBalance of payments 615 7$aBanking 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aCapital account crisis 615 7$aCapital movements 615 7$aCurrent Account Adjustment 615 7$aCurrent account 615 7$aEmerging and frontier financial markets 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aFinance: General 615 7$aFinancial services industry 615 7$aForeign exchange reserves 615 7$aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aInternational Investment 615 7$aLong-term Capital Movements 615 7$aMonetary Policy 615 7$aReserves accumulation 615 7$aShort-term Capital Movements 615 7$aSudden stops 676 $a338.28310 700 $aKim$b Jun$01647813 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910970756303321 996 $aSudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance$94372579 997 $aUNINA