LEADER 05085oam 22009854 450 001 9910970501103321 005 20251116183845.0 010 $a9786613821560 010 $a9781462370948 010 $a1462370942 010 $a9781452714790 010 $a1452714797 010 $a9781282448377 010 $a1282448374 010 $a9781451913187 010 $a1451913184 035 $a(CKB)3360000000443194 035 $a(EBL)1607684 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000948650 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11602667 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000948650 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10951190 035 $a(PQKB)10568120 035 $a(OCoLC)535146989 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2008003 035 $a(CaOOCEL)251002 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607684 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2008003 035 $a(CaBNVSL)gtp00528135 035 $a(VaAlCD)20.500.12592/5f7rmx 035 $aWPIEA2008003 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443194 071 60$a251002$bCaOOCEL$q(Public Documents) 100 $a20020129d2008 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aSpillovers Across NAFTA /$fTamim Bayoumi, Andrew Swiston 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008. 215 $a1 online resource (34 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"January 2008." 311 08$a9781451868654 311 08$a1451868650 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 18-19). 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Identifying Spillovers in a Vector Autoregression; III. Where do Shocks to Canada and Mexico Originate?; A. The Evolution of Domestic Shocks and Correlations Over Time; B. Size of Spillovers to Canada; C. Size of Spillovers to Mexico; IV. By What Channels Are Spillovers Transmitted?; A. Measuring the Channels; B. Sources of Spillovers to Canada; C. Sources of Spillovers to Mexico; V. Conclusions; References; Tables; 1. Canada: Correlations, Variances, and Covariances of VAR Residuals; 2. Mexico: Correlations, Variances, and Covariances of VAR Residuals 327 $a3. Canada: Variance Decompositions of Real GDP4. Mexico: Variance Decompositions of Real GDP; Figures; 1. Measures of U.S. Integration with Canada and Mexico; 2. Canada: Spillovers Across Eight VARs; 3. Canada: Spillovers Across Eight VARs by Subsample; 4. Domestic Shocks and Canadian Responses by Subsample; 5. Mexico: Spillovers Across Eight VARs; 6. Mexico: Spillovers Across Eight VARs, 1996-2007; 7. Domestic Shocks and Mexican Responses by Subsample; 8. Canada: Decomposition of Spillovers; 9. Canada: Decomposition of Spillovers by Subsample; 10. Mexico: Decomposition of Spillovers 330 3 $aThis paper examines linkages across North America by estimating the size of spillovers from the major regions of the world-the United States, euro area, Japan, and the rest of the world-to Canada and Mexico, and decomposing the impact of these spillovers into trade, commodity price, and financial market channels. For Canada, a one percent shock to U.S. real GDP shifts Canadian real GDP by some ¾ of a percentage point in the same direction- with financial spillovers more important than trade in recent decades. Thus, a large proportion of the reduction in Canadian output volatility since the 1980s can be accounted for by the "Great Moderation" in U.S. growth. Before 1996, domestic volatility in Mexico swamped the contribution of external factors to the business cycle. After 1996, the response of Mexican GDP is 1½ times the size of the U.S. shock-"when the U.S. sneezes, Mexico catches a cold". These spillovers are transmitted through both trade and financial channels. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2008/003 606 $aFiscal policy$zCanada 606 $aBusiness cycle$2Iptcnc 606 $aCholesky decomposition$2Iptcnc 606 $aEconomics$2Iptcnc 606 $aEconomy$2Iptcnc 606 $aGross domestic product$2Iptcnc 606 $aNorth american free trade agreement$2Iptcnc 606 $aUnited states$2Iptcnc 606 $aVariance$2Iptcnc 606 $aVector autoregression$2Iptcnc 606 $aWeighted arithmetic mean$2Iptcnc 607 $aNorth America$xEconomic integration 607 $aNorth America$xCommercial treaties 615 0$aFiscal policy 615 7$aBusiness cycle 615 7$aCholesky decomposition 615 7$aEconomics 615 7$aEconomy 615 7$aGross domestic product 615 7$aNorth american free trade agreement 615 7$aUnited states 615 7$aVariance 615 7$aVector autoregression 615 7$aWeighted arithmetic mean 676 $a338.9171073 700 $aBayoumi$b Tamim$0122763 701 $aSwiston$b Andrew$01815877 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bWestern Hemisphere Department. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910970501103321 996 $aSpillovers Across NAFTA$94371486 997 $aUNINA