LEADER 05880oam 22012854 450 001 9910968946203321 005 20251117064034.0 010 $a9786612844232 010 $a9781462361816 010 $a1462361811 010 $a9781452796475 010 $a1452796475 010 $a9781451873665 010 $a1451873662 010 $a9781282844230 010 $a1282844237 024 8 $a10.1596/1813-9450-4995 035 $a(CKB)1000000000798242 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000939941 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11502258 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939941 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10946028 035 $a(PQKB)11019991 035 $a(OCoLC)694141002 035 $a(US-djbf)4995 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009219 035 $a(The World Bank)4995 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1605937 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2009219 035 $aWPIEA2009219 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000798242 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 14$aThe Uncertainty Channel of Contagion /$fPrakash Kannan, Fritzi Köhler-Geib 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (38 pages) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"October 2009." 311 08$a9781451917864 311 08$a1451917864 327 $aIntro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Related Literature -- III. Model -- A. Environment -- B. Information Structure -- C. Timing -- D. Investor's Problem -- E. Firm's Problem -- F. Endogenizing the Share of Informed Investors -- G. Summary of Model and Testable Hypotheses -- IV. Empirical Analysis -- A. Methodology -- B. Data -- C. Results -- V. Conclusion -- VI. Appendix -- References -- Tables -- 1. Step 1- Effect of Crisis in "Country A" on Uncertainty in "Country B" -- 2. Step 2-Effect of Uncertainty on Probability of Crisis, all Initial Crisis Countries -- 3. Step 2-Effect of uncertainty on probability of crisis, without any interaction -- 4. Marginal Effect of Uncertainty on the Probablity of a Crisis -- 5. Sample of Countries -- 6. List of Variables -- 7. Step 2-Effect of Uncertainty on the Probablity of a Crisis, Restricting Attention to the Mexican, Russian and Thai Crises -- 8. Step 2-Effect of Uncertainty on the Probablity of a Crisis, Additional Control for Common Overexposed Fund Investors -- Figures -- 1. Uncertainty Around the Period of the Thai Crisis -- 2. Uncertainty Around the Period of the Argentine Crisis. 330 3 $aThe 2007 subprime crisis in the U.S. triggered a succession of financial crises around the globe, reigniting interest in the contagion phenomenon. Not all crises, however, are contagious. This paper models a new channel of contagion where the degree of anticipation of crises, through its impact on investor uncertainty, determines the occurrence of contagion. Incidences of surprise crises lead investors to doubt the accuracy of their informationgathering technology, which endogenously increases the probability of crises elsewhere. Anticipated crisis, instead, have the opposite effect. Importantly, this channel is empirically shown to have an independent effect beyond other contagion channels. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/219 606 $aFinancial crises$xEconometric models 606 $aContagion (Social psychology)$xEconomic aspects 606 $aAsset prices$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEconomic & financial crises & disasters$2imf 606 $aEmerging and frontier financial markets$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aFinance: General$2imf 606 $aFinancial Crises$2imf 606 $aFinancial crises$2imf 606 $aFinancial markets$2imf 606 $aFinancial Risk Management$2imf 606 $aFinancial services industry$2imf 606 $aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aGeneral issues$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aInnovation$2imf 606 $aIntellectual Property Rights: General$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aResearch and Development$2imf 606 $aStock exchanges$2imf 606 $aStock markets$2imf 606 $aTechnological Change$2imf 606 $aTechnology$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aFinancial crises$xEconometric models. 615 0$aContagion (Social psychology)$xEconomic aspects. 615 7$aAsset prices 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEconomic & financial crises & disasters 615 7$aEmerging and frontier financial markets 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aFinance: General 615 7$aFinancial Crises 615 7$aFinancial crises 615 7$aFinancial markets 615 7$aFinancial Risk Management 615 7$aFinancial services industry 615 7$aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aGeneral issues 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aInnovation 615 7$aIntellectual Property Rights: General 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aResearch and Development 615 7$aStock exchanges 615 7$aStock markets 615 7$aTechnological Change 615 7$aTechnology 676 $a338.951 700 $aKannan$b Prakash$01800219 701 $aKo?hler-Geib$b Fritzi$01815825 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Department. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910968946203321 996 $aThe Uncertainty Channel of Contagion$94371357 997 $aUNINA