LEADER 06494nam 22008293n 450 001 9910968334403321 005 20251116214729.0 010 $a0-19-773738-2 010 $a1-280-52629-7 010 $a9786610526291 010 $a0-19-974874-8 010 $a1-4237-6354-8 024 7 $a10.1093/oso/9780195076417.001.0001 035 $a(CKB)1000000000460483 035 $a(OCoLC)226376720 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebrary10142098 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000100610 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11109008 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000100610 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10036673 035 $a(PQKB)10543556 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3052048 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10142098 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL52629 035 $a(OCoLC)922952733 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3052048 035 $a(OCoLC)1406782508 035 $a(StDuBDS)9780197737385 035 $a(OCoLC)27151516 035 $a(FINmELB)ELB163682 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000460483 100 $a19940315e20231994 |y | 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aAIDS epidemiology $ea quantitative approach /$fRon Brookmeyer, Mitchell H. Gail 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aNew York ;$cOxford University Press,$d2023. 215 $a1 online resource (371 p.) 225 1 $aOxford scholarship online 300 $aPreviously issued in print: 1994. 311 08$a0-19-507641-9 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $aIntro -- Contents -- 1. INTRODUCTION -- 1.1 Brief History -- 1.2 HIV Virus and Its Clinical Effects -- 1.3 Measuring the Epidemic -- 1.4 Worldwide Scope of the Epidemic -- 2. RISK FACTORS FOR INFECTION AND THE PROBABILITY OF HIV TRANSMISSION -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Studies of AIDS Patients -- 2.3 Case-Control and Cohort Studies to Identify Risk Factors -- 2.4 Risks from Point Exposures -- 2.5 Sexual Transmission and Partner Studies -- 3. SURVEYS TO DETERMINE SEROPREVALENCE AND SEROINCIDENCE -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Estimating Seroprevalence Rates from Representative (Probability-Based) Samples -- 3.3 Surveys of Selected Subpopulations -- 3.4 Estimating National Seroprevalence from Surveys of Selected Subpopulations -- 3.5 Estimating HIV Incidence from Survey Data -- 4. THE INCUBATION PERIOD DISTRIBUTION -- 4.1 Introduction and Historical Overview -- 4.2 Mathematical Models for the Incubation Period Distribution -- 4.3 Retrospective Data on AIDS Cases -- 4.4 Prevalent Cohort Studies -- 4.5 Studies with Doubly Censored and Interval Censored Data -- 4.6 Deconvolution Methods (Back-Calculating the Incubation Distribution) -- 4.7 Duration of the Pre-Antibody Phase -- 4.8 Synthesis of Knowledge of the Incubation Period Distribution -- 5. COFACTORS AND MARKERS -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Cofactors and Doubly Censored Data -- 5.3 Cofactors and Prevalent Cohort Studies -- 5.4 Cofactors and Retrospective Studies of Cases -- 5.5 Markers as Prognostic Factors -- 5.6 The Marker Trajectory -- 5.7 Other Uses of Markers -- 5.8 Variability of Markers -- 5.9 Synthesis of Knowledge of Cofactors and Markers -- 6. SCREENING AND ACCURACY OF TESTS FOR HIV -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Sensitivity, Specificity, and Related Measures of Accuracy for Diagnostic Tests -- 6.3 Screening Applications and Positive Predictive Value -- 6.4 Safety of the Blood Supply. 327 $a6.5 Assays for Live Virus, for HIV Antigen, and for HIV Genome -- 7. STATISTICAL ISSUES IN SURVEILLANCE OF AIDS INCIDENCE -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 AIDS Incidence Data -- 7.3 Statistical Analysis of Reporting Delays -- 7.4 Underreporting of AIDS Cases -- 7.5 Changes in the Surveillance Definition -- 7.6 Empirical Extrapolation of AIDS Incidence -- 8. BACK-CALCULATION -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Deterministic Deconvolution -- 8.3 Statistical Deconvolution -- 8.4 Uncertainty in Back-Calculation -- 8.5 Back-Calculation for Investigating Hypotheses About the Infection Rate -- 8.6 Generalized Back-Calculation: Extension to Account for Nonstationary Incubation Distributions -- 8.7 Application to the U.S. AIDS Epidemic -- 8.8 Technical Notes -- 9. EPIDEMIC TRANSMISSION MODELS -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 A Closed Two-Compartment Model -- 9.3 Generalizations of the Closed Two-Compartment Model -- 9.4 Heterogeneous Subgroups and the Importance of Mixing Patterns -- 9.5 Evaluating Prevention Strategies -- 9.6 Stochastic Epidemic Models -- 9.7 Comparing Parameters in Epidemic Models with Empirical Estimates of Doubling Times and HIV Prevalence Ratios -- 9.8 Discussion -- 10. SYNTHESIZING DATA SOURCES AND METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE SCOPE OF THE EPIDEMIC -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Combining Data and Methods -- 10.3 Forecasting in Developing Countries -- 10.4 Forecasting Pediatric AIDS -- 10.5 Forecasting for Small Areas -- 11. DEVELOPING AND EVALUATING NEW THERAPIES AND VACCINES -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 History of the Development of AZT -- 11.3 Approaches to Therapy Based on the Pathophysiology of HIV Disease -- 11.4 Observational Studies -- 11.5 Special Problems and Design Issues in Clinical Trials for HIV Disease -- 11.6 Vaccine Trials -- References -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- U. 327 $aV -- W -- Z. 330 8 $aConfronting problems unique to AIDS research, this study focuses on the creation of methods for the design and analysis of epidemiological data, the natural history of AIDS, methods for tracking and projecting the course of the epidemic, and statistical issues on therapeutic trials. 410 0$aMonographs in epidemiology and biostatistics ;$v22. 410 0$aOxford scholarship online. 606 $aAIDS (Disease)$xEpidemiology 606 $aBiometry 606 $aEpidemiology$xStatistical methods 606 $aAcquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome$xepidemiology 606 $aEpidemiologic Methods 615 0$aAIDS (Disease)$xEpidemiology. 615 0$aBiometry. 615 0$aEpidemiology$xStatistical methods. 615 2$aAcquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome$xepidemiology. 615 2$aEpidemiologic Methods. 676 $a614.5/993 700 $aBrookmeyer$b Ron$01887489 702 $aGail$b Mitchell H. 801 0$bUk 801 1$bUk 801 2$bStDuBDSZ 801 2$bStDuBDSZ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910968334403321 996 $aAIDS epidemiology$94524352 997 $aUNINA