LEADER 03927nam 2200709Ia 450 001 9910966157603321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a9780262291620 010 $a0262291622 010 $a9780262283878 010 $a0262283875 010 $a9781435654990 010 $a1435654994 035 $a(CKB)1000000000536337 035 $a(OCoLC)463189465 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebrary10235152 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000163204 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11167012 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000163204 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10108497 035 $a(PQKB)10733619 035 $a(OCoLC)244795966$z(OCoLC)991920208 035 $a(OCoLC-P)244795966 035 $a(MaCbMITP)7582 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3338904 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10235152 035 $a(PPN)170238792 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3338904 035 $a(FR-PaCSA)88800132 035 $a(FRCYB88800132)88800132 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000536337 100 $a20071109d2008 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aGlobal catastrophes and trends $ethe next fifty years /$fVaclav Smil 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aCambridge, MA $cMIT Press$dc2008 215 $a1 online resource (322 p.) 300 $aBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph 311 08$a9780262518222 311 08$a0262518228 311 08$a9780262195867 311 08$a0262195860 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and indexes. 327 $aIntro -- Contents -- Preface -- 1 How (Not) to Look Ahead -- 2 Fatal Discontinuities -- 3 Unfolding Trends -- 4 Environmental Change -- 5 Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty -- Appendix A Units and Abbreviations, Prefixes -- Appendix B Acronyms -- References -- Name Index -- Subject Index. 330 $aFrom the Publisher: Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to, and plan for, the consequences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long-term trends. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance: the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, the United States, and Islamic nations; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change-in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change-and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, relying on long-term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe. 606 $aEnvironmental risk assessment 606 $aNatural disasters 615 0$aEnvironmental risk assessment. 615 0$aNatural disasters. 676 $a363.34 700 $aSmil$b Vaclav$0140188 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910966157603321 996 $aGlobal catastrophes and trends$94335790 997 $aUNINA