LEADER 06383oam 2200661 a 450 001 9910965957303321 005 20010404122632.0 010 $a9798400649516 010 $a9780313002779 010 $a0313002770 024 7 $a10.5040/9798400649516 035 $a(CKB)111056485429170 035 $a(OCoLC)614715171 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebrary10020882 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000152941 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11165177 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000152941 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10392569 035 $a(PQKB)10479271 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3000750 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10020882 035 $a(OCoLC)55143237 035 $a(OCoLC)43555357 035 $a(DLC)BP9798400649516BC 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3000750 035 $a(Perlego)4202277 035 $a(EXLCZ)99111056485429170 100 $a20000210e20002024 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aFailing the crystal ball test $ethe Carter administration and the fundamentalist revolution in Iran /$fOfira Seliktar 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWestport, Conn. :$cPraeger,$d2000. 210 2$aLondon :$cBloomsbury Publishing,$d2024 215 $a1 online resource (xxi, 245 pages) 300 $aBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph 311 08$a9780275968724 311 08$a0275968723 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [195]-225) and index. 327 $aCover -- Failing the Crystal Ball Test -- Contents -- Preface -- Abbreviations -- Introduction: The Theory and Practice of Predicting Political Change -- 1 Theories of Political Change and Predictions of Change: Methodological Problems -- METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF TRACKING CHANGES IN A COLLECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEM -- THE DIMENSIONS OF A COLLECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEM: EXISTENTIAL IMPERATIVES AS VALIDITY CLAIMS -- THE PROCESS OF LEGITIMIZING A COLLECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEM: THE DISCURSIVE APPROACH -- THE PROCESS OF DELEGITIMATION: THE SYSTEMIC AND INDIVIDUAL LEVEL VIEW -- Systemic Level Mechanisms -- Individual Level Mechanisms -- ACTIVATING THE PROCESS OF DELEGITIMATION: TRIGGER CONDITIONS OF CHANGE -- THE NATURE OF THE DELEGITIMATION DISCOURSE: SYMBOLS AND SUBSTANCE -- THE TIMETABLE OF THE DELEGITIMATION DISCOURSE: CONTINUOUS AND REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE -- THE PROCESS OF TRANSVALUATION: REFORMIST AND RADICAL -- 2 Paradigmatic Views of Political Change: Developmentalism vs. Dependency -- THE DEVELOPMENTAL VIEW OF CHANGE: LINEAR PROGRESSION TOWARD THE WEST -- THE DEPENDENCY VIEW OF CHANGE: LINEAR PROGRESSION TOWARD A SOCIALIST UTOPIA -- HEADED TOWARD CONVERGENCE: REDEFINING THE DIRECTION OF POLITICAL CHANGE -- LEANING TO THE LEFT: THE MYTH AND REALITY OF THE OBJECTIVE SOCIAL SCIENTIST -- FROM REALPOLITIK TO MORALPOLITIK: THE INTELLECTUAL BASE OF NEW INTERNATIONALISM -- 3 Road Testing New Internationalism: The Iran Policy of the Carter Administration -- CRUSADING AGAINST REALPOLITIK: MAINSTREAMING THE NEW INTERNATIONALISM VISION -- THE UNLIKELY CRUSADER: JIMMY CARTER AND THE EMBRACE OF NEW INTERNATIONALISM -- A COAT OF MANY COLORS: THE SHAPING OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S IRANIAN POLICY -- THE RESURGENT CONGRESS: THE AWACS SALE AS A REFERENDUM ON THE SHAH'S LEGITIMACY -- BACK HOME: THE SHAH AND THE OPPOSITION TAKE MEASURE OF THE "CARTER REVOLUTION" IN FOREIGN POLICY. 327 $aWASHINGTON'S CHALLENGE: THE POLITICS OF THE PREDICTIVE PROCESS -- 4 In the Eye of the Storm: The Carter Administration and the Iranian Revolution -- THE CYCLICAL RIOTS: THE VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE CYCLICAL RIOTS: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- THE MASS PROTEST: THE VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE MASS PROTEST: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- THE GENERAL STRIKES: THE VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE GENERAL STRIKES: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- THE ENDGAME: A VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE ENDGAME: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- 5 Dealing with Chaos: The Carter Administration and the Successor Regime in Iran -- THE SHORT SPRING OF THE MODERATES: THE EMERGENCE OF A DUAL GOVERNMENT -- MAKING SENSE OF THE REVOLUTIONARY AFTERMATH: WASHINGTON'S GUIDE FOR THE PERPLEXED -- THE HOT SUMMER: THE FUNDAMENTALIST TAKEOVER -- WHAT'S IN A NAME?: WASHINGTON BETS ON THE MODERATES -- THE LONG FALL: THE PUSH FOR A FUNDAMENTALIST HEGEMONY -- THE UNWELCOME VISITOR: THE POLITICS OF THE SHAH'S ADMISSION TO THE UNITED STATES AND THE SEIZURE OF THE EMBASSY -- 6 Reflections on Predictive Failures -- PARADIGMATIC FAILURE -- POLICY FAILURE -- INTELLIGENCE FAILURE -- UNDERSTANDING THE "GREAT UNKNOWN": THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION AND PREDICTING POLITICAL CHANGE IN THE FUTURE -- References -- Index -- About the Author. 330 8 $aWith the Iranian revolution as her focal point, Seliktar offers a systematic analysis of predictive failure in foreign policy at the paradigmatic, policy, and intelligence levels. Seliktar first examines how social science paradigms determine conceptualizations of political change, and then applies that analysis to understanding New Internationalism, the Carter administration's foreign policy philosophy at the time of the Shah's fall from power. Based in part on classified documents seized during the takeover of the American embassy, Failing the Crystal Ball Test is a valuable addition to Middle Eastern studies, international relations, and comparative politics collections. Seliktar engages in a general discussion of the problems entailed in correctly assessing the political legitimacy of foreign regimes, and describes the origins of New Internationalism as influenced by the New Left dependency theories. Examining President Carter's application of New Internationalism to Iran, Seliktar presents an account first of political influences on the predictive process during the early stages of revolution, and then of the administration's misreading of the likelihood of a fundamentalist regime in Teheran. 606 $aIslamic fundamentalism$zIran 607 $aUnited States$xForeign relations$zIran 607 $aIran$xForeign relations$zUnited States 615 0$aIslamic fundamentalism 676 $a327.73055/09/047 700 $aSeliktar$b Ofira$0659156 801 0$bDLC 801 1$bDLC 801 2$bDLC 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910965957303321 996 $aFailing the crystal ball test$94338582 997 $aUNINA