LEADER 05834oam 22011894 450 001 9910965778803321 005 20250426110706.0 010 $a9781475557602 010 $a1475557604 010 $a9781475586466 010 $a1475586469 035 $a(CKB)2670000000278826 035 $a(EBL)1606837 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000952360 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11522103 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000952360 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10905647 035 $a(PQKB)10391029 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606837 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1606837 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10627047 035 $a(OCoLC)800095393 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012177 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012177 035 $aWPIEA2012177 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000278826 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aEstimating the Implicit Inflation Target of the South African Reserve Bank /$fNir Klein 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (17 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 08$a9781475520866 311 08$a1475520867 311 08$a9781475505252 311 08$a1475505256 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Inflation Targets in Selected Emerging Markets; II. The Empirical Model; 2. South Africa: Output Gap by Hodric-Presscot Filter; III. Estimation Results under a Constant Natural Real Rate Empirical Model; 3. Inflation and Inflation Expectations; Tables; 1. Estimated Response Function of the SARB; 4. The Estimated Implicit Inflation Target; IV. The Sensitivity of the Results to the Pre-determined Parameters; A. A Random Walk or a Stationary Process?; B. A Different (constant) Natural Real Rate; C. Alternative Signal-to-Noise Ratios 327 $a2. Estimated Response Function with a Relaxation of the Random Walk Assumption5. The Estimated Implicit Inflation Target with Different Levels of Natural Real Rate; V. Time-Varying Natural Real Rate; 3. Estimated Response Function with Different Signal-to-Noise Ratios; 6. The Estimated Implicit Inflation Target with Alternative Signal-to-Noise Ratios; 7. The Estimated Time-Varying Natural Interest Rate; 8. The Estimated Implicit Inflation Target with Time-Varying Natural Interest Rate; VI. The Actual versus the Predicted Policy Rate 327 $a4. Estimated response function with time-varying natural real rate9. Actual and Predicted Policy Rate; VII. Conclusions; References; Appendix: Table; 1.A Labor Descriptive Statistics, 2001-Q1-2011-Q4; Appendix: Figures; 1.A The Estimated Implicit Inflation Target; 2A. The SARB's Policy Rate 330 3 $aThis paper applies a state-space approach to estimate the implicit inflation target of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) since the adoption of the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework. The paper's findings are two. First, although the official inflation target range is 3.6 percent, in practice, the SARB seems to have aimed for the upper segment of the band (41.2 .6 percent) for most of the period, despite the substantial variation of the output gap. Second, the estimation results show that the implicit inflation target varied over time, and in recent years it has shifted toward the upper limit of the inflation target range. This perhaps suggests that since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the SARB's tolerance for higher inflation has somewhat increased to better support economic activity. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/177 606 $aAnti-inflationary policies$zSouth Africa 606 $aBanking$2imf 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aCentral bank policy rate$2imf 606 $aCentral Banks and Their Policies$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory$2imf 606 $aFinancial services$2imf 606 $aInflation targeting$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aInterest rates$2imf 606 $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aMonetary economics$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy$2imf 606 $aMonetary policy$2imf 606 $aMoney and Monetary Policy$2imf 606 $aOutput gap$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aProduction and Operations Management$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 607 $aSouth Africa$2imf 615 0$aAnti-inflationary policies 615 7$aBanking 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aCentral bank policy rate 615 7$aCentral Banks and Their Policies 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEconomic theory 615 7$aFinancial services 615 7$aInflation targeting 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aInterest rates 615 7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aMonetary economics 615 7$aMonetary Policy 615 7$aMonetary policy 615 7$aMoney and Monetary Policy 615 7$aOutput gap 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aProduction and Operations Management 615 7$aProduction 676 $a332.1/52 700 $aKlein$b Nir$01122405 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910965778803321 996 $aEstimating the Implicit Inflation Target of the South African Reserve Bank$94372029 997 $aUNINA