LEADER 01484nas 2200493- 450 001 996198713203316 005 20240118213020.0 011 $a1810-7591 035 $a(DE-599)ZDB2164214-X 035 $a(OCoLC)318934730 035 $a(CKB)1000000000525923 035 $a(CONSER)--2022242367 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000525923 100 $a20090421a20029999 --- - 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurun||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 00$aCriminology in Europe $enewsletter of the European Society of Criminology /$fESC 210 1$aCambridge :$cEuropean Society of Criminology 215 $a1 online resource 311 $a1729-8164 517 1 $aNewsletter of the European Society of Criminology 531 1 $aCriminol. Eur. 606 $aCriminology$zEurope$vPeriodicals 606 $aCriminologie$zEurope$vPériodiques 606 $aCriminology$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst00883566 607 $aEurope$2fast 608 $aperiodicals.$2aat 608 $aPeriodicals.$2fast 608 $aZeitschrift.$2gnd-content 608 $aPeriodicals.$2lcgft 608 $aPériodiques.$2rvmgf 615 0$aCriminology 615 6$aCriminologie 615 7$aCriminology. 676 $a364.09405 686 $a2,1$2ssgn 712 02$aEuropean Society of Criminology, 906 $aJOURNAL 912 $a996198713203316 996 $aCriminology in Europe$92021524 997 $aUNISA LEADER 04971oam 22011774 450 001 9910964633703321 005 20250426110544.0 010 $a9786613830142 010 $a9781462361908 010 $a1462361900 010 $a9781452715834 010 $a1452715831 010 $a9781283517690 010 $a1283517698 010 $a9781451992021 010 $a1451992025 035 $a(CKB)3360000000443939 035 $a(EBL)3014539 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000942124 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11582406 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942124 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10971517 035 $a(PQKB)10551543 035 $a(OCoLC)694141244 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3014539 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2006197 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2006197 035 $aWPIEA2006197 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443939 100 $a20020129d2006 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aMeasures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area : $eAssessment and Role for Informing Monetary Policy /$fEmil Stavrev 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2006. 215 $a1 online resource (37 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"August 2006." 311 08$a9781451864571 311 08$a1451864574 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. TAXONOMY OF UNDERLYING INFLATION INDICATORS""; ""III. FEATURES OF THE INDICATORS""; ""IV. FORECASTING METHODOLOGY AND ASSESSMENT OF FORECASTING PERFORMANCE""; ""V. CONCLUDING REMARKS""; ""References"" 330 3 $aThe paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors resulting from forecasting of exogenous variables. Also, measures derived using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means, although weaker than GDFM indicators, have good forecasting performance, while indicators by permanent exclusion underperform but provide useful information about short-term dynamics. The forecasting performance of theoretically-founded models that relate monetary aggregates, the output gap, and inflation improves with the time horizon but generally falls short of that of the GDFM. A composite measure of underlying inflation, derived by averaging the statistical indicators and the model-based estimates, improves forecast accuracy by eliminating bias and offers valuable insight about the distribution of risks. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2006/197 606 $aInflation (Finance)$zEurope 606 $aMonetary policy$zEurope 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEconomic Forecasting$2imf 606 $aEconomic forecasting$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aExchange rates$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aForecasting$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aModel Construction and Estimation$2imf 606 $aModel Evaluation and Selection$2imf 606 $aMonetary aggregates$2imf 606 $aMonetary economics$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General$2imf 606 $aMoney and Monetary Policy$2imf 606 $aMoney supply$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 615 0$aInflation (Finance) 615 0$aMonetary policy 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEconomic Forecasting 615 7$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aExchange rates 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aForecasting 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aModel Construction and Estimation 615 7$aModel Evaluation and Selection 615 7$aMonetary aggregates 615 7$aMonetary economics 615 7$aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General 615 7$aMoney and Monetary Policy 615 7$aMoney supply 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aPrices 700 $aStavrev$b Emil$01815673 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910964633703321 996 $aMeasures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area$94372034 997 $aUNINA