LEADER 06461oam 22013814 450 001 9910961191803321 005 20250426110742.0 010 $a9786612844393 010 $a9781462353743 010 $a1462353746 010 $a9781451873856 010 $a1451873859 010 $a9781452704654 010 $a1452704651 010 $a9781282844391 010 $a1282844393 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055380 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000942131 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11585701 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942131 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10972022 035 $a(PQKB)10257164 035 $a(OCoLC)680613638 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1605955 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009238 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2009238 035 $aWPIEA2009238 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055380 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aMonetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : $eA Panel Unobserved Components Approach /$fFrancis Vitek 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a42 p. $cill 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"October 2009." 311 08$a9781451918038 311 08$a1451918038 327 $aIntro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. The Panel Unobserved Components Model -- A. Cyclical Components -- B. Trend Components -- III. Estimation -- A. Estimation Procedure -- B. Estimation Results -- IV. Monetary Policy Analysis -- A. Vector Autocorrelations -- B. Impulse Response Functions -- C. Forecast Error Variance Decompositions -- D. Historical Decompositions -- V. Forecasting -- A. Forecasting Procedure -- B. Forecasting Results -- VI. Conclusion -- Tables -- 1. Parameter Estimation Results -- Figures -- 1. Output Gap Estimates -- 2. Monetary Conditions Gap Estimates -- 3. Vector Autocorrelations -- 4. Impulse Responses to a Domestic Supply Shock -- 5. Impulse Responses to a Foreign Supply Shock -- 6. Impulse Responses to a Domestic Demand Shock -- 7. Impulse Responses to a Foreign Demand Shock -- 8. Impulse Responses to a Domestic Monetary Policy Shock -- 9. Impulse Responses to a Foreign Monetary Policy Shock -- 10. Impulse Responses to a World Commodity Price Shock -- 11. Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of Inflation -- 12. Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of the Output Gap -- 13. Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of the Monetary Conditions Gap -- 14. Historical Decompositions of Inflation -- 15. Historical Decompositions of the Output Gap -- 16. Historical Decompositions of the Monetary Conditions Gap -- 17. Conditional Forecasts of Inflation -- 18. Conditional Forecasts of Output Growth -- Appendix. Description of the Data Set -- References. 330 3 $aThis paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a novel Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/238 606 $aMonetary policy$xEconometric models 606 $aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aBayesian Analysis: General$2imf 606 $aBusiness Fluctuations$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aCycles$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aFinancial Markets and the Macroeconomy$2imf 606 $aFinancial services$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aInterest rates$2imf 606 $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf 606 $aLong term interest rates$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aModel Construction and Estimation$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy$2imf 606 $aMultiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data$2imf 606 $aOpen Economy Macroeconomics$2imf 606 $aOutput gap$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aProduction and Operations Management$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aReal effective exchange rates$2imf 606 $aShort term interest rates$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aMonetary policy$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aBayesian Analysis: General 615 7$aBusiness Fluctuations 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aCycles 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEconomic theory 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aFinancial Markets and the Macroeconomy 615 7$aFinancial services 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aInterest rates 615 7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 615 7$aLong term interest rates 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aModel Construction and Estimation 615 7$aMonetary Policy 615 7$aMultiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data 615 7$aOpen Economy Macroeconomics 615 7$aOutput gap 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aProduction and Operations Management 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aReal effective exchange rates 615 7$aShort term interest rates 676 $a338.192358 700 $aVitek$b Francis$01815613 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bStrategy, Policy, and Review Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910961191803321 996 $aMonetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy$94371074 997 $aUNINA