LEADER 00986nam a2200265 i 4500 001 991001911299707536 005 20020508183622.0 008 010514s1956 fr ||| | fre 035 $ab10931314-39ule_inst 035 $aPARLA151064$9ExL 040 $aDip.to Filosofia$bita 082 0 $a282.092 100 1 $aPacaut, Marcel$0160492 245 10$aAlexandre 3. :$bétude sur la conception du pouvoir pontifical dans sa pensée et dans son oeuvre /$cpar Marcel Pacaut 260 $aParis :$bVrin,$c1956 300 $a416 p. ;$c25 cm. 440 2$aL'église et l'état au moyen age ;$v11 600 04$aAlessandro$c 650 4$aChiesa cattolica romana - 1159-1181 907 $a.b10931314$b02-04-14$c28-06-02 912 $a991001911299707536 945 $aLE005IF II B 29$g1$iLE005IFA-8913 B$lle005$o-$pE0.00$q-$rl$s- $t0$u0$v0$w0$x0$y.i11036424$z28-06-02 996 $aAlexandre 3.$9919849 997 $aUNISALENTO 998 $ale005$b01-01-01$cm$da $e-$ffre$gfr $h0$i1 LEADER 04730oam 22010094 450 001 9910961121403321 005 20250426110702.0 010 $a9786612840852 010 $a9781462390106 010 $a1462390102 010 $a9781451996371 010 $a1451996373 010 $a9781282840850 010 $a1282840851 010 $a9781451869927 010 $a1451869924 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055033 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000944009 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11544308 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000944009 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10982172 035 $a(PQKB)10539268 035 $a(OCoLC)252906501 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1605815 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2008133 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2008133 035 $aWPIEA2008133 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055033 100 $a20020129d2008 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aCrude Oil Prices : $eTrends and Forecast /$fNoureddine Krichene 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008. 215 $a1 online resource (25 pages) $cillustrations 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/08/133 300 $aBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph 311 08$a9781451914450 311 08$a1451914458 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aIntro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Recent Evolution of Oil Prices -- III. Modeling Oil Prices as Levy Process -- IV. Oil Price Process as Normal Inverse Gaussian Process -- V. Estimation of Oil Price Process as a Normal Inverse Gaussian Process -- VI. Market Incompleteness and Esscher Transform -- VII. Density Forecast of Crude Oil Prices: The Inverse Problem -- VIII. Conclusions -- Tables -- 1. Descriptive Statistics for Oil Price Returns -- 2. Oil Price as Normal Inverse Distribution, Parameterization -- 3. Oil Price as Normal Inverse Distribution, Parameterization -- Figures -- 1. Oil Daily Futures Prices, January 2000-October 2007 -- 2a. Empirical Distribution of Oil Price Returns 2000M1-2003M4 -- 2b. Empirical Distribution of Oil Price Returns, 2003M5-2007M10 -- 3. Oil Price Returns GARCH(1.1) Volatility, January 2000-October 2007 -- References. 330 3 $aFollowing record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of observed trends, as market fundamentals and underlying monetary policies were supportive of these trends. Market expectations derived from option prices anticipated further surge in oil prices and allowed significant probability for right tail events. Given explosive trends in other commodities prices, depreciating currencies, and weakening financial conditions, recent trends in oil prices might not persist further without triggering world economic recession, regressive oil supply, as oil producers became wary about inflation. Restoring stable oil markets, through restraining monetary policy, is essential for durable growth and price stability. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2008/133 606 $aPetroleum products$xPrices$xForecasting 606 $aAsset prices$2imf 606 $aCommodity Markets$2imf 606 $aCommodity prices$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aEnergy: General$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aInvestments: Energy$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aOil$2imf 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aPetroleum products$xPrices$xForecasting. 615 7$aAsset prices 615 7$aCommodity Markets 615 7$aCommodity prices 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aEnergy: General 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aInvestments: Energy 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aOil 615 7$aPetroleum industry and trade 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aPrices 676 $a338.232820112 700 $aKrichene$b Noureddine$0861994 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910961121403321 996 $aCrude Oil Prices$94372337 997 $aUNINA