LEADER 05844oam 22007575 450 001 9910959866303321 005 20240313182652.0 010 $a9780821398630 010 $a0821398636 024 7 $a10.1596/978-0-8213-9861-6 035 $a(CKB)2670000000340148 035 $a(EBL)1154775 035 $a(OCoLC)831117436 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000834548 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11460197 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000834548 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10980801 035 $a(PQKB)11059470 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1154775 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10796129 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL464610 035 $a(The World Bank)17641763 035 $a(US-djbf)17641763 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1154775 035 $a(Perlego)1483472 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000340148 100 $a20130228d2013 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $2rdacontent 182 $2rdamedia 183 $2rdacarrier 200 10$aAfghanistan in transition $elooking beyond 2014 /$fRichard Hogg, Claudia Nassif, Camilo Gomez Osorio, William Byrd, and Andrew Beath 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cThe World Bank,$d[2013] 215 $a1 online resource (pages cm) 225 1 $aDirections in development : countries and regions 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 08$a9780821398616 311 08$a082139861X 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aC1; C2; Contents; Preface; Acknowledgments; About the Authors; Abbreviations; Overview; Aid and the Challenge of Transition; Figures; Figure O.1 Aid Trends in Afghanistan; International Experience and Afghanistan's History; Figure O.2 External and Core Budgets, 2010/11; Assessing and Managing the Economic Effects of Transition; Figure O.3 Real and Agricultural GDP Growth since 2003/04; Figure O.4 Decomposition of Growth in GDP at Factor Cost, by Activity and Scenario, 2010/11-2018/19; Tables; Table O.1 Real Macro Indicators, by Simulation, 2010/11-2018/19 327 $aAnalyzing the Employment and Poverty Impacts of Transition Responding to the Fiscal Impact of Declining Aid; Figure O.5 Core Budget Projections to 2021/22; Figure O.6 Projected Expenditure by 2021/22; Figure O.7 Operating and Total Core Financing Gap; Boosting Government Capacity; Figure O.8 Core Operating and Development Budget Execution, 2005/06-2010/11; Delivering Services and Maintaining Infrastructure; Figure O.9 Share of EFS in Eight Ministries and One Agency, 2011; Table O.2 Budget, Donor Funding, and O&M Needs for Five Core Sectors, 2011/12; Key Conclusions and Recommendations; Note 327 $aReferences Chapter 1 Lessons from History: Afghanistan and Elsewhere; Some History; International Comparisons; Table 1.1 Afghanistan's Performance Relative to the "Strong Performers" Cluster; Figure 1.1 Trends in Per Capita GDP Growth, Afghanistan and Three Clusters; Figure 1.2 Extremely High and Growing Aid Dependence; Box 1.1 Somalia's Experience; Boxes; Figure 1.3 Changes in Life Expectancy and Under-Five Mortality; Figure 1.4 Deteriorating Rule of Law and Government Effectiveness Indicators; Figure 1.5 Deteriorating Political Stability Indicator; Conclusions and Recommendations; Notes 327 $aReferences Chapter 2 The Economic Impacts of Transition; The Economy; Figure 2.1 Real and Agricultural GDP Growth since 2003/04; Figure 2.2 Aid Trends in Afghanistan; Figure 2.3 Sector Growth Rates, 2003/04-2010/11; Table 2.1 Sector Shares in GDP; Figure 2.4 Sector Contribution to GDP Growth; Box 2.1 The Opium Economy; Aid Dependency; Box 2.2 Mining as a Potential Source of Growth; Figure 2.5 Aid versus GDP per Capita, Average of 2006-08; Table 2.2 Donor Assistance; Figure 2.6 Government Consumption versus GDP per Capita, Average of 2006-08; Impact of Transition on Economic Growth 327 $aTable 2.3 Domestic Economic Content of Aid, 2010/11 Box 2.3 Overview of Scenarios and Assumptions; Table 2.4 Real Macro Indicators by Simulation, 2010/11-2018/19; Risks to Macroeconomic Stability; Figure 2.7 Decomposition of GDP at Factor Cost, by Activity and Simulation, 2010/11-2018/19; Box 2.4 Limitations of the Model; Figure 2.8 Balance of Payments, 2002/03-2010/11; Figure 2.9 Money Reserves, 2002/03-2010/11; Impact of Transition on Employment; Figure 2.10 Unemployment and Underemployment, by Province; Figure 2.11 Distribution of the Employed Population, by Economic Sector, 2007/08 327 $aImpact of Transition on Poverty 330 $aThe withdrawal of most international troops by 2014 will have a profound and lasting impact on the country's economic and development fabric. This book explores some of these ramifications. Development progress since 2001 has been mixed. The country has recorded some major achievements such as rapid economic growth, relatively low inflation, better public financial management, and gains in basic health and education. Key social indicators, including life expectancy and maternal mortality, have improved markedly, and women are participating more in the economy. 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