LEADER 04488oam 22010454 450 001 9910959809203321 005 20250426110619.0 010 $a9786613822376 010 $a9781462375028 010 $a1462375022 010 $a9781451983302 010 $a1451983301 010 $a9781282558243 010 $a1282558242 010 $a9781451987102 010 $a1451987102 035 $a(CKB)3360000000443272 035 $a(EBL)3014393 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000939933 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11596387 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939933 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10939185 035 $a(PQKB)10949693 035 $a(OCoLC)698585655 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3014393 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2006175 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2006175 035 $aWPIEA2006175 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443272 100 $a20020129d2006 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting /$fFrancis Kumah 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2006. 215 $a1 online resource (27 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"July 2006". 311 08$a9781451864359 311 08$a1451864353 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC""; ""III. SEASONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMER PRICES""; ""IV. MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLATION""; ""V. CONCLUDING REMARKS""; ""References""; ""Appendix. Further Empirical Results"" 330 3 $aAdequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where seasonal fluctuations of economic activity and prices are pronounced. In an application of the framework, the paper characterizes and investigates the stability of the seasonal pattern of consumer prices in the Kyrgyz Republic and estimates optimal money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad specifications of an augmented error-correction model-with and without seasonal components. Findings from the paper confirm empirical superiority (in terms of information content and contributions to policymaking) of augmented error-correction models of inflation over single-equation, Box-Jenkins-type general autoregressive seasonal models. Simulations of the estimated errorcorrection models yield optimal monetary policy paths for achieving inflation targets and demonstrate the empirical significance of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2006/175 606 $aInflation (Finance)$xForecasting 606 $aMonetary policy 606 $aConsumer price indexes$2imf 606 $aConsumer prices$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEconomic Forecasting$2imf 606 $aEconomic forecasting$2imf 606 $aExchange rates$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aForecasting$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aPrice indexes$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 607 $aKyrgyz Republic$2imf 615 0$aInflation (Finance)$xForecasting. 615 0$aMonetary policy. 615 7$aConsumer price indexes 615 7$aConsumer prices 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEconomic Forecasting 615 7$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aExchange rates 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aForecasting 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aPrice indexes 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aPrices 700 $aKumah$b Francis$01815690 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910959809203321 996 $aThe Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting$94371160 997 $aUNINA