LEADER 05695oam 22007695 450 001 9910958044503321 005 20240516131938.0 010 $a9786613491848 010 $a9781283491846 010 $a1283491842 010 $a9780821389546 010 $a0821389548 024 7 $a10.1596/978-0-8213-8981-2 035 $a(CKB)3460000000023799 035 $a(EBL)868315 035 $a(OCoLC)778459780 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000661566 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)12241530 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000661566 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10711435 035 $a(PQKB)11770039 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC868315 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL868315 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10530608 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL349184 035 $a(The World Bank)2011048299 035 $a(US-djbf)17070785 035 $a(Perlego)1483878 035 $a(EXLCZ)993460000000023799 100 $a20111205d2011 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 00$aKnowing, when you don't know : $eusing microsimulation models to assess the poverty and distributional impacts of macroeconomic shocks /$fedited by Ambar Narayan, Carolina Sanchez-Peramo 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cWorld Bank,$dc2011. 215 $apages cm 225 1 $aWorld Bank studies 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 08$a9780821389812 311 08$a0821389815 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; List of Contributors; Acknowledgments; Foreword; 1. Assessing the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of the Financial Crisis with Microsimulations: An Overview of Country Studies; Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Poverty; Evaluating the Impact of the Crisis; The Methodology to Estimate Impacts Ex Ante; How the Approach Works; Defining the "Impact": Two Types of Countries; Simulating the Impact of Policy Changes; Caveats to the Approach; Results from Micro-Macro Simulations for Four Countries; Results for Type I Countries; Results for Type II Countries 327 $aSimulating the Impact of Policy ResponsesConclusion; 2. On Economy-Wide Shocks, Models and Politics; When Are Second-Round and Systemic Effects a First-Order Concern?; Implications; When Can Information Affect Government Behavior?; Conclusion and a Note on the World Bank; 3. The Distributional Consequences of the Economic and Financial Crisis of 2008-09: A Comment; Backdrop to the Issue of Distributional Consequences; Thinking about the Problem; The Guts of the U.S. Story; Some Basic Generalizations; The Current Crisis in Perspective; Results of Quick Post Crisis Surveys 327 $aTakeaway Observations of Relevance for Policy4. Stress Testing for the Poverty Impacts of the Next Crisis; Introduction; The Need for a Social Protection Assessment Program (SPAP); An Overview of the Workshop Papers and Presentations; An Assessment, and What's Missing; Conclusion; References; Figures; Figure 1.1: Scheme of the modeling process; Figure 1.2: Impacts in Type I and Type II countries; Figure 1.3: Percent change in sectoral employment between benchmark and crisis (2010); Figure 1.4: Percent change in household income between benchmark and crisis scenarios (2010) 327 $aFigure 1.5: Percent change in poverty/inequality indicators between crisis and benchmarkFigure 1.6: Percent losses in income for the general population (left) and the crisis-vulnerable (right); Figure 1.7: Percentage of poor and crisis-vulnerable households in rural areas; Figure 1.8: Percentage of households with low-skilled heads; Figure 1.9: Growth incidence curves: percent change in income (relative to the benchmark) due to crisis; Figure 1.10: Transitions across deciles of per capita income (percent of households in each decile) 327 $aFigure 1.11: Macroeconomic projections for Mexico (2008-09 are actual observations 2010-11 are forecasts); Figure 1.12: Growth incidence curve for Mexico (2008-09); Figure 1.13: Transitions across deciles in Mexico; Figure 1.14: Growth incidence curves for Mexico (2010-11); Figure 1.15: Transitions across deciles for the period 2010-11; Figure 2.1: The welfare impact of food price changes in the 1997 Indonesian crisis across households; Figure 2.2: The pattern of change in deposits, by size and ownership of deposits, in the lead up to the Argentine financial crisis 327 $aFigure 3.1: The top percentile (1%) of U.S. income (incomes above US368,000 in 2008) 330 $aEconomists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks willaffect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easilyavailable when crises strike. But policy action requires not onlyunderstanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifyingwhich households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) thecrisis.A popular solution is to extrapolate the welfare impact of a shockfrom the historical response of income or consumption poverty tochanges in output, by estimating an 'elasticity' of poverty togrowth. Although this method provides an estimate for the agg 410 0$aWorld Bank e-Library. 606 $aDepressions 606 $aPoverty 606 $aEconomics 615 0$aDepressions. 615 0$aPoverty. 615 0$aEconomics. 676 $a339.4/6015195 701 $aNarayan$b Ambar$01805414 701 $aSa?nchez-Pa?ramo$b Carolina$01805415 801 0$bDLC 801 1$bDLC 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910958044503321 996 $aKnowing, when you don't know$94353989 997 $aUNINA