LEADER 05246oam 22012134 450 001 9910957188403321 005 20250426110454.0 010 $a9786612842863 010 $a9781462314409 010 $a1462314406 010 $a9781282842861 010 $a1282842862 010 $a9781451872125 010 $a1451872127 010 $a9781451995343 010 $a1451995342 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055230 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940118 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11576141 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940118 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10946290 035 $a(PQKB)11211696 035 $a(OCoLC)550683377 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009065 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1605895 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2009065 035 $aWPIEA2009065 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055230 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aDeveloping a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT) /$fDouglas Laxton, Alasdair Scott, David Rose 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a65 p. $cill 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph 311 08$a9781451916478 311 08$a1451916477 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aIntro -- CONTENTS -- I. Introduction -- II. Developing a Decision-Making Process -- III. Benefits of a Successful IFT Regime -- IV. Critical Path For Developing A Structured FPAS -- V. The Quarterly Projection Exercise -- VI. The Core Model -- VII. The Role of Models in the FPAS -- VIII. On the Evolution and Development of the FPAS -- Text Figures -- 1. The Role of Models in the Forecast Process -- 2. From Policy Issues to Policy Recommendations -- 3. How Several Models can be Combined to Impose Consistency -- Appendix Figures -- 4. A Possible Reporting Structure -- 5. Links Between Different Databases -- 6. The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism -- 7. Inflation Expectations 10-Years-Ahead in the United Kingdom -- Appendix Tables -- 1. Estimation of a Model with Model-Consistent Measures of Potential GDP -- 2. Notation: Time Periods Correspond to Calendar Quarters. 330 3 $aThis paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/065 606 $aEconomic forecasting 606 $aInflation targeting 606 $aCommunications in revenue administration$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aEconomic Forecasting$2imf 606 $aEconomic forecasting$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aForecasting$2imf 606 $aGeneral Aggregative Models: General$2imf 606 $aIncome economics$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aLabor economics$2imf 606 $aLabor Economics: General$2imf 606 $aLabor$2imf 606 $aLabour$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aNational accounts$2imf 606 $aNational income$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aRevenue$2imf 606 $aTaxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General$2imf 615 0$aEconomic forecasting. 615 0$aInflation targeting. 615 7$aCommunications in revenue administration 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aEconomic Forecasting 615 7$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aForecasting 615 7$aGeneral Aggregative Models: General 615 7$aIncome economics 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aLabor economics 615 7$aLabor Economics: General 615 7$aLabor 615 7$aLabour 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aNational accounts 615 7$aNational income 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aRevenue 615 7$aTaxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General 676 $a338.102368 700 $aLaxton$b Douglas$01594457 701 $aRose$b David$01816496 701 $aScott$b Alasdair$01815607 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910957188403321 996 $aDeveloping a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)$94372609 997 $aUNINA