LEADER 04144nam 2200673Ia 450 001 9910954517903321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a9786612554612 010 $a9780309150330 010 $a0309150337 010 $a9781282554610 010 $a1282554611 010 $a9780309116619 010 $a0309116619 035 $a(CKB)2550000000010443 035 $a(EBL)3378585 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000425113 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11292301 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000425113 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10476298 035 $a(PQKB)11651260 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3378585 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3378585 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10367638 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL255461 035 $a(OCoLC)923281405 035 $a(Perlego)4738186 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000010443 100 $a20091021d2010 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aPersistent forecasting of disruptive technologies /$fCommittee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council of the National Academies 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aWashington, D.C. $cNational Academies Press$dc2010 215 $a1 online resource (137 p.) 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 08$a9780309116602 311 08$a0309116600 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $a""Front Matter""; ""Preface""; ""Acknowledgment of Reviewers""; ""Contents""; ""Acronyms and Abbreviations""; ""Glossary""; ""Summary""; ""1 Need for Persistent Long-Term Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies""; ""2 Existing Technology Forecasting Methodologies""; ""3 The Nature of Disruptive Technologies""; ""4 Reducing Forecasting Ignorance and Bias""; ""5 Ideal Attributes of a Disruptive Technology Forecasting System""; ""6 Evaluating Existing Persistent Forecasting Systems""; ""7 Conclusion""; ""Appendixes""; ""Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members"" 327 $a""Appendix B: Meetings and Speakers"" 330 $a"Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation."--Publisher's description. 606 $aDisruptive technologies 606 $aTechnological forecasting 606 $aTechnological innovations 615 0$aDisruptive technologies. 615 0$aTechnological forecasting. 615 0$aTechnological innovations. 676 $a601.12 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910954517903321 996 $aPersistent forecasting of disruptive technologies$94116544 997 $aUNINA