LEADER 04421nam 2200709Ia 450 001 9910954396803321 005 20251116215330.0 010 $a9786610704903 010 $a9780309180535 010 $a0309180538 010 $a9781280704901 010 $a128070490X 010 $a9780309662611 010 $a0309662613 035 $a(CKB)1000000000469279 035 $a(EBL)3378150 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000127205 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)12027617 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000127205 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10052260 035 $a(PQKB)11502133 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3378150 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10150103 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL70490 035 $a(OCoLC)923277260 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3378150 035 $a(Perlego)4736394 035 $a(BIP)13620780 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000469279 100 $a20061026d2006 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 00$aCompleting the forecast $echaracterizing and communicating uncertainty for better decisions using weather and climate forecasts /$fCommittee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aWashington, D.C. $cNational Academies Press$dc2006 215 $a1 online resource (125 p.) 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 08$a9780309102551 311 08$a0309102553 320 $aIncludes bibliographic references (p. 102-106) 327 $a""Front Matter""; ""Preface""; ""Acknowledgments""; ""Contents""; ""Summary""; ""1 Introduction""; ""2 Uncertainty in Decision Making""; ""3 Estimating and Validating Uncertainty""; ""4 Communicating Forecast Uncertainty""; ""5 Overarching Recommendations""; ""References""; ""Appendixes""; ""Appendix A Acronyms and Initialisms""; ""Appendix B List of Presenters and Other Contributors to the Study Process""; ""Appendix C Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff"" 330 $aUncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (TM)s National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition. 606 $aWeather 606 $aWeather forecasting 606 $aClimatic changes 615 0$aWeather. 615 0$aWeather forecasting. 615 0$aClimatic changes. 676 $a551.63 712 02$aNational Research Council (U.S.).$bCommittee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts. 712 02$aNational Research Council (U.S.).$bBoard on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. 712 02$aNational Academies Press (U.S.) 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910954396803321 996 $aCompleting the forecast$94366361 997 $aUNINA