LEADER 05541nam 2200637Ia 450 001 9910830599903321 005 20170809172956.0 010 $a1-283-29514-8 010 $a9786613295149 010 $a1-118-15058-9 010 $a1-118-18644-3 035 $a(CKB)2550000000056666 035 $a(EBL)819091 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000566799 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11352785 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000566799 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10552500 035 $a(PQKB)10663217 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC819091 035 $a(OCoLC)761319825 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000056666 100 $a19951019d1996 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 12$aA probabilistic analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti evidence$b[electronic resource] /$fJoseph B. Kadane, David A. Schum 210 $aNew York $cWiley$dc1996 215 $a1 online resource (392 p.) 225 1 $aWiley series in probability and statistics. Applied probability and statistics 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a0-471-14182-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 351-358) and indexes. 327 $aA Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence; Contents; Preface; Acknowledgments; 1 Different Wine in an Old Bottle; 1.1 The South Braintree Crime; 1.2 The Arrest and Charging of Sacco and Vanzetti; 1.3 The Trial and Its Aftermath; 1.4 Disputes about the Verdict in Commonwealth v. Sacco and Vanzetti; 1.5 Two Probabilists Take an Interest in the Dispute; 1.6 Probability and Chains of Reasoning: Bayes and Wigmore; 2 A Standpoint for Our Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence; 2.1 The Importance of Declaring Standpoint in Inference-Related Tasks 327 $a2.1.1 Our Standpoint for Analyzing the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence2.2 Some Thoughts about a Historical Standpoint; 2.2.1 Our Legacy from Historians; 2.2.2 Probability and History; 2.2.3 Final Thoughts about Historical Standpoints; 2.3 Legal Scholarship and the Credentials of Evidence; 2.3.1 A Legacy from Evidence Scholarship in Law; 2.3.2 On the Relevance of Evidence; 2.3.3 On the Credibility of Various Forms of Evidence; 2.3.4 Law and Probability: The Probative Force of Evidence; 3 Chains of Reasoning from a Mass of Evidence; 3.1 Wigmore's Methods of Analysis and Synthesis 327 $a3.1.1 Wigmore's Original Methods3.1.2 A ""User-Friendly"" Version of Wigmore's Methods; 3.1.3 Wigmore and Modern Inference Networks; 3.2 Chains of Reasoning and Discovery; 3.2.1 Abduction and Chains of Reasoning; 3.2.2 Discovering Sources of Reasonable Doubt; 3.3 Marshaling the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence; 3.3.1 The First Stages of Marshaling the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence; 3.3.2 Chart Construction and the Marshaling of Evidence; 3.4 Evidence-Charting Conventions; 3.4.1 Node and Arc Symbols; 3.4.2 Charting Ancillary Evidence; 3.4.3 Charting by Sectors; 3.4.4 Generalizations 327 $a3.4.5 On Credibility-Related Links in a Chain of Reasoning3.5 Evidence Chart Synopses; 3.5.1 The Evidence and Arguments on Penultimate Probandum ?1; 3.5.2 The Evidence and Arguments on Penultimate Probandum ?2; 3.5.3 The Evidence and Arguments on Penultimate Probandum ?3; 4 Grading the Probative Force of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence; 4.1 A Probabilistic Standpoint; 4.2 Bayes's Rule and the Probative Force of Evidence; 4.2.1 Hypotheses, Priors, and Some Controversy; 4.2.2 Two Classes of Hypotheses Regarding Sacco and Vanzetti; 4.2.3 Likelihoods, Likelihood Ratios, and Bayes's Rule 327 $a4.2.4 Likelihood Ratios and the Aggregate Force of Evidence4.2.5 Likelihood Ratios for Subsets of Evidence; 4.2.6 Likelihood Ratios for Individual Evidence Items; 4.2.7 Wigmore, Bayes, and the Trapping of Evidential Subtleties in Individual Items and Combinations of Evidence; 4.3 Other Insights about the Probative Force of Evidence; 4.3.1 Baconian Probability and the Completeness of Evidential Coverage; 4.3.2 Thought Experiments, Arguments, and Belief Functions; 4.3.3 Fuzzy Inferences; 4.4 Likelihood Ratios, FRE 401, and the Probability Debates in Law 327 $a5 Probabilistic Analyses: Issues and Methods 330 $aA Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence is a Bayesian analysis of the trial and post-trial evidence in the Sacco and Vanzetti case, based on subjectively determined probabilities and assumed relationships among evidential events. It applies the ideas of charting evidence and probabilistic assessment to this case, which is perhaps the ranking cause celebre in all of American legal history. Modern computation methods applied to inference networks are used to show how the inferential force of evidence in a complicated case can be graded. The authors employ probabilistic assess 410 0$aWiley series in probability and statistics.$pApplied probability and statistics. 606 $aEvidence (Law)$zUnited States$xStatistical methods$vCase studies 606 $aSacco-Vanzetti Trial, Dedham, Mass., 1921 615 0$aEvidence (Law)$xStatistical methods 615 0$aSacco-Vanzetti Trial, Dedham, Mass., 1921. 676 $a519.2 700 $aKadane$b Joseph B$0105057 701 $aSchum$b David A$01691065 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910830599903321 996 $aA probabilistic analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti evidence$94067197 997 $aUNINA