LEADER 06566oam 22012974 450 001 9910828616903321 005 20240402023720.0 010 $a1-4843-9170-5 010 $a1-4843-0277-X 010 $a1-4843-2538-9 035 $a(CKB)2670000000420296 035 $a(EBL)1587881 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001076479 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11696889 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001076479 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11028492 035 $a(PQKB)10711174 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1587881 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1587881 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10739541 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL490369 035 $a(OCoLC)837732387 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2013087 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2013087 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000420296 100 $a20020129d2013 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aGPM6 : $eThe Global Projection Model with 6 Regions /$fIoan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Petar Manchev 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2013. 215 $a1 online resource (80 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4843-1894-3 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Background to the Model Specification; III. The specification of the model; A. Data definitions; B. Stochastic processes; 1. Potential Output; 2. NAIRU; 3. Equilibrium real interest rate; 4. Real exchange rate; C. Behavioral equations for the G3 economies; 1. Output Gap; 2. Inflation; 3. Policy Interest Rate; 4. Medium-term Interest Rate; 5. Uncovered Interest Parity; 6. Unemployment Rate; D. Differences in specification of behavioral equations for the emerging economies; 1. Output Gap; 2. Uncovered Interest Parity; 3. Unemployment Rate 327 $aIV. Confronting the Model with the DataA. Bayesian estimation; 1. General approach; 2. Calibration and estimation in the GPM6 model; B. Results; 1. Estimated and calibrated coefficients; 2. Root Mean Squared Errors; 3. Variance decompositions; 4. Impulse response functions; 5. A global demand shock; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendix 1: GPM6 Data Definitions; Tables; 1. GPM6 Parameters Table; 2. Results from estimation of parameters in GPM6 (sample 1994Q1-2007Q4); 3. GPM6 Trade and Spillovers Table; 4. GPM6 Trade and Spillovers Table[2] 327 $a5. Results from estimation - standard deviation of structural shocks[1]6. Results from estimation - standard deviation of structural shocks[2]; 7. Root Mean Squared Errors 1999Q1-2007Q4 .; 8. Variance Decomposition[1]; 9. Variance Decomposition[2]; Figures; 1. Shock to (Omitted); 2. Shock to (Omitted); 3. Shock to (Omitted); 4. Shock to (Omitted); 5. Shock to (Omitted); 6. Shock to (Omitted); 7. Shock to (Omitted); 8. Shock to (Omitted); 9. Shock to (Omitted); 10. Shock to (Omitted); 11. Shock to (Omitted); 12. Shock to (Omitted); 13. Shock to (Omitted); 14. Shock to (Omitted) 327 $a15. Shock to (Omitted)16. Shock to (Omitted); 17. Shock to (Omitted); 18. Shock to (Omitted); 19. Shock to (Omitted); 20. Shock to (Omitted); 21. Shock to (Omitted); 22. Shock to (Omitted); 23. Global Demand Shock 330 3 $aThis is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add three more regions and make a number of other changes to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2013/087 606 $aEconomic policy$xMathematical models 606 $aEconomics$xMathematical models 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aProduction and Operations Management$2imf 606 $aModel Construction and Estimation$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy$2imf 606 $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aBanking$2imf 606 $aReal exchange rates$2imf 606 $aOutput gap$2imf 606 $aReal interest rates$2imf 606 $aCentral bank policy rate$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aFinancial services$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aInterest rates$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aEconomic policy$xMathematical models. 615 0$aEconomics$xMathematical models. 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aProduction and Operations Management 615 7$aModel Construction and Estimation 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aMonetary Policy 615 7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aBanking 615 7$aReal exchange rates 615 7$aOutput gap 615 7$aReal interest rates 615 7$aCentral bank policy rate 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aFinancial services 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aInterest rates 615 7$aEconomic theory 676 $a332.152 700 $aCarabenciov$b Ioan$01594898 701 $aFreedman$b Charles$01139411 701 $aGarcia-Saltos$b Roberto$01374858 701 $aLaxton$b Douglas$01594457 701 $aKamenik$b Ondrej$01594899 701 $aManchev$b Petar$01594900 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910828616903321 996 $aGPM6$93915611 997 $aUNINA