LEADER 05851oam 22011174 450 001 9910828556403321 005 20240402051411.0 010 $a1-4623-6182-X 010 $a1-4527-4300-2 010 $a1-282-84368-0 010 $a1-4518-7302-6 010 $a9786612843686 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055307 035 $a(EBL)1608370 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000943254 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11484314 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943254 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10974831 035 $a(PQKB)11287967 035 $a(OCoLC)642044575 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608370 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009155 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055307 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aSpillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (22 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"July 2009." 311 $a1-4519-1730-9 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. World Growth Spillovers; Figures; 1. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Rest of the World: Real GDP Growth; II. Previous Studies; III. Channels of Transmission; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Merchandise Exports by Destinations, 1985 to 2008; 3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Destination of Exports; IV. Quantitative Estimates of Spillovers; 4. Capital Inflows in Sub-Saharan Africa; 5. 3-month Libor to Treasury Bill Rate Spreads and the VIX Index; Tables; 1. GMM Regression Output for SSA Real GDP Growth 327 $a6. Selection of the Optimal Size of Shock for the Absolute Value of Income Effect of Oil Price Changes 7. Percent of Non-Zeros in Variable Measuring Income Effect of Oil Price Changes Greater than 5 Percent; 8. Recursive Estimators of the GMM Model; V. Applications to Sub-Saharan African Countries; 9. Out-of-Sample Forecast: Changes in Growth as Forecasted by WEO and by the Spillover Model for 2008 to 09; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Out-of-Sample Real GDP Growth as Forecasted in the WEO and the GMM Model; 10. Spillovers Model and WEO Forecasts Vs. Actual 2008 Real Growth 327 $a11. Forecasting Errors in WEO and Spillover Model for 2008 VI. Conclusions; Box; References 330 3 $aThis paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external demand for their exports, declines in commodity prices and the terms of trade, and tighter financial conditions abroad. The last, proxied by the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills, is to our knowledge one of the first applications of such a measure of financial conditions for countries in the region. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/155 606 $aStocks$xPrices$zAfrica, Sub-Saharan$xEconometric models 606 $aCapital stock$zAfrica, Sub-Saharan$xEconometric models 606 $aBank loans$zAfrica, Sub-Saharan$xEconometric models 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMultiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data$2imf 606 $aInternational Finance Forecasting and Simulation$2imf 606 $aEconomic Growth of Open Economies$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation$2imf 606 $aCommodity Markets$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aEmpirical Studies of Trade$2imf 606 $aTrade: General$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aCommodity prices$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aCommodity price fluctuations$2imf 606 $aTerms of trade$2imf 606 $aExports$2imf 606 $aInternational trade$2imf 606 $aEconomic policy$2imf 606 $anternational cooperation$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aStocks$xPrices$xEconometric models. 615 0$aCapital stock$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBank loans$xEconometric models. 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMultiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data 615 7$aInternational Finance Forecasting and Simulation 615 7$aEconomic Growth of Open Economies 615 7$aMacroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation 615 7$aCommodity Markets 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aEmpirical Studies of Trade 615 7$aTrade: General 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aCommodity prices 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aCommodity price fluctuations 615 7$aTerms of trade 615 7$aExports 615 7$aInternational trade 615 7$aEconomic policy 615 7$anternational cooperation 676 $a341.27 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bAfrican Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910828556403321 996 $aSpillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries$94117266 997 $aUNINA