LEADER 06262oam 22012974 450 001 9910828514403321 005 20240402044756.0 010 $a1-4623-5374-6 010 $a1-4518-7385-9 010 $a1-4527-0465-1 010 $a1-282-84439-3 010 $a9786612844393 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055380 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000942131 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11585701 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942131 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10972022 035 $a(PQKB)10257164 035 $a(OCoLC)680613638 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1605955 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009238 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055380 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aMonetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : $eA Panel Unobserved Components Approach /$fFrancis Vitek 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a42 p. $cill 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"October 2009." 311 $a1-4519-1803-8 327 $aIntro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. The Panel Unobserved Components Model -- A. Cyclical Components -- B. Trend Components -- III. Estimation -- A. Estimation Procedure -- B. Estimation Results -- IV. Monetary Policy Analysis -- A. Vector Autocorrelations -- B. Impulse Response Functions -- C. Forecast Error Variance Decompositions -- D. Historical Decompositions -- V. Forecasting -- A. Forecasting Procedure -- B. Forecasting Results -- VI. Conclusion -- Tables -- 1. Parameter Estimation Results -- Figures -- 1. Output Gap Estimates -- 2. Monetary Conditions Gap Estimates -- 3. Vector Autocorrelations -- 4. Impulse Responses to a Domestic Supply Shock -- 5. Impulse Responses to a Foreign Supply Shock -- 6. Impulse Responses to a Domestic Demand Shock -- 7. Impulse Responses to a Foreign Demand Shock -- 8. Impulse Responses to a Domestic Monetary Policy Shock -- 9. Impulse Responses to a Foreign Monetary Policy Shock -- 10. Impulse Responses to a World Commodity Price Shock -- 11. Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of Inflation -- 12. Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of the Output Gap -- 13. Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of the Monetary Conditions Gap -- 14. Historical Decompositions of Inflation -- 15. Historical Decompositions of the Output Gap -- 16. Historical Decompositions of the Monetary Conditions Gap -- 17. Conditional Forecasts of Inflation -- 18. Conditional Forecasts of Output Growth -- Appendix. Description of the Data Set -- References. 330 3 $aThis paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a novel Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/238 606 $aMonetary policy$xEconometric models 606 $aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aProduction and Operations Management$2imf 606 $aBayesian Analysis: General$2imf 606 $aMultiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data$2imf 606 $aModel Construction and Estimation$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aBusiness Fluctuations$2imf 606 $aCycles$2imf 606 $aFinancial Markets and the Macroeconomy$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy$2imf 606 $aOpen Economy Macroeconomics$2imf 606 $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aShort term interest rates$2imf 606 $aOutput gap$2imf 606 $aReal effective exchange rates$2imf 606 $aLong term interest rates$2imf 606 $aFinancial services$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aInterest rates$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aMonetary policy$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aProduction and Operations Management 615 7$aBayesian Analysis: General 615 7$aMultiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data 615 7$aModel Construction and Estimation 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aBusiness Fluctuations 615 7$aCycles 615 7$aFinancial Markets and the Macroeconomy 615 7$aMonetary Policy 615 7$aOpen Economy Macroeconomics 615 7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aShort term interest rates 615 7$aOutput gap 615 7$aReal effective exchange rates 615 7$aLong term interest rates 615 7$aFinancial services 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aInterest rates 615 7$aEconomic theory 676 $a338.192358 700 $aVitek$b Francis$01631308 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bStrategy, Policy, and Review Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910828514403321 996 $aMonetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy$94091271 997 $aUNINA