LEADER 03642nam 2200769 a 450 001 9910828315103321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-281-43112-5 010 $a9786611431129 010 $a0-226-77474-0 024 7 $a10.7208/9780226774749 035 $a(CKB)1000000000409872 035 $a(EBL)408200 035 $a(OCoLC)476227911 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000116138 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11125109 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000116138 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10033391 035 $a(PQKB)10034829 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC408200 035 $a(DE-B1597)535685 035 $a(OCoLC)1058444031 035 $a(DE-B1597)9780226774749 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL408200 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10230055 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL143112 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000409872 100 $a19930405d1993 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurun#---|u||u 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 00$aBusiness cycles, indicators, and forecasting /$fedited by James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aChicago $cUniversity of Chicago Press$dc1993 215 $a1 online resource (350 p.) 225 1 $aStudies in business cycles ;$vv. 28 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 0 $a0-226-77488-0 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and indexes. 327 $tFront matter --$tRelation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the National Bureau of Economic Research --$tContents --$tAcknowledgments --$tIntroduction --$t1. Twenty-two Years of the NBERASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance --$t2. A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience --$t3. Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation --$t4. A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model --$t5. Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity? --$t6. Further Evidence on Business- Cycle Duration Dependence --$t7. A Dynamic Index Model for Large Cross Sections --$t8. Modeling Nonlinearity over the Business Cycle --$tContributors --$tAuthor Index --$tSubject Index 330 $aThe inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis. 410 0$aStudies in business cycles ;$vno. 28. 606 $aEconomic forecasting$vCongresses 606 $aEconomic indicators$vCongresses 606 $aBusiness cycles$vCongresses 606 $aEconomic forecasting$zUnited States$vCongresses 606 $aEconomic indicators$zUnited States$vCongresses 606 $aBusiness cycles$zUnited States$vCongresses 607 $aUnited States$xEconomic conditions$vCongresses 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 615 0$aEconomic indicators 615 0$aBusiness cycles 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 615 0$aEconomic indicators 615 0$aBusiness cycles 676 $a338.5/42 701 $aStock$b James H$0122895 701 $aWatson$b Mark W$0119533 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910828315103321 996 $aBusiness cycles, indicators, and forecasting$93976610 997 $aUNINA