LEADER 05904oam 22011054 450 001 9910827088903321 005 20240402050945.0 010 $a1-4623-6082-3 010 $a1-4527-7126-X 010 $a9786612842559 010 $a1-4518-7180-5 010 $a1-282-84255-2 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055199 035 $a(EBL)1608168 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940107 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11553620 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940107 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10948124 035 $a(PQKB)11080533 035 $a(OCoLC)680613576 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608168 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009033 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055199 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aCurrent Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources /$fRudolfs Bems, Irineu de Carvalho Filho 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (40 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1616-7 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Modeling Framework; A. Small Open Endowment Economy; B. Optimal Solution; Deterministic case, ?t = 0; Stochastic case, ?t > 0; III. Parameterization and Baseline Model Results; A. Model Parameterization; B. Baseline Model Results; Norway; Other exporters of exhaustible resources; IV. Sensitivity Analysis; A. Preference Parameters; B. Growth in Non-Exhaustible Resource Output; C. Path and Lifespan of Exhaustible Resource Extraction; D. Process for Exhaustible Resource Prices; V. Extension to Time-Series of Optimal outcomes; A. Setup and Parameterization 327 $aB. ResultsVI. Conclusions; References; Appendix A: Solution Method (case of n=0); Tables; 1. Country-Specific Model Parameters and Initial Values; 2. Optimal 2006 Current Accounts in the Baseline Model; 3. Summary of Sensitivity Analysis for Current Account Components; 4. Optimal Current Account with Constant Extraction Quantities; Figures; 1. Output Volatility and Oil Balance; 2. Projected Production of Liquids (oil and gas); 3. Optimal Model Solution for Norway, t0=2006; 4. 'Output at Risk': Expected Share of Exhaustible Resource Revenues in GDP 327 $a5. Actual and Model-Based 2006 Current Account Balances (in percent of GDP)6. Price of Exhaustible Resources, in 2006 Dollars; 7. Proven Reserves of Oil and Gas for Norway; 8. Time-Series of Optimal Outcomes for Norway, t0={1975, 1976,; 9. Comparison of Norway's CA and NFA in the Model and Data 330 3 $aExporters of exhaustible resources have historically exhibited higher income volatility than other economies, suggesting a heightened role for precautionary savings. This paper uses a parameterized small open economy model to quantify the role of precautionary savings in economies with exhaustible resources, when the only source of uncertainty is the price of the exhaustible resource. Results show that the precautionary motive can generate sizable external sector savings. When aggregated over the sample countries, precautionary savings in 2006 add up to 3.2 percent of GDP. The quantitative importance of the precautionary motive varies considerably across the sample countries and is driven primarily by the weight of exhaustible resource revenues in future income. The parameterized model fares well at capturing current account balances in both cross-section and time-series data. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/033 606 $aSaving and investment$xMathematical models 606 $aNonrenewable natural resources$xEconometric models 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aNatural Resources$2imf 606 $aNonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Consumption$2imf 606 $aSaving$2imf 606 $aWealth$2imf 606 $aCurrent Account Adjustment$2imf 606 $aShort-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aEnvironmental management$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aNon-renewable resources$2imf 606 $aPrecautionary savings$2imf 606 $aCurrent account$2imf 606 $aConsumption$2imf 606 $aCurrent account balance$2imf 606 $aNatural resources$2imf 606 $aSaving and investment$2imf 606 $aBalance of payments$2imf 606 $aEconomics$2imf 607 $aNorway$2imf 615 0$aSaving and investment$xMathematical models. 615 0$aNonrenewable natural resources$xEconometric models. 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aNatural Resources 615 7$aNonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Consumption 615 7$aSaving 615 7$aWealth 615 7$aCurrent Account Adjustment 615 7$aShort-term Capital Movements 615 7$aEnvironmental management 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aNon-renewable resources 615 7$aPrecautionary savings 615 7$aCurrent account 615 7$aConsumption 615 7$aCurrent account balance 615 7$aNatural resources 615 7$aSaving and investment 615 7$aBalance of payments 615 7$aEconomics 676 $a332.024;332.02401 700 $aBems$b Rudolfs$01636353 701 $ade Carvalho Filho$b Irineu$01610173 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910827088903321 996 $aCurrent Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources$94006376 997 $aUNINA