LEADER 09316oam 22015014 450 001 9910826248003321 005 20240405021933.0 010 $a1-4983-3578-0 010 $a1-4983-2070-8 010 $a1-4983-1196-2 035 $a(CKB)2550000001345668 035 $a(EBL)1770307 035 $a(OCoLC)888748878 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001398956 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11776919 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001398956 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11446246 035 $a(PQKB)11433527 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1770307 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10913246 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL638374 035 $a(IMF)1CHNEE2014001 035 $a(IMF)1CHNEA2014001 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1770307 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000001345668 100 $a20020129d2014 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aPeople?s Republic of China : $eStaff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2014. 215 $a1 online resource (116 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Staff Country Reports 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4983-0857-0 311 $a1-322-07123-3 327 $a""Cover""; ""CONTENTS""; ""SETTING""; ""A. Background""; ""B. Developments and Outlook""; ""RISKS AND BUFFERS""; ""A. Domestic Vulnerabilities""; ""B. Domestic Risk Assessment""; ""C. External Risks""; ""SUSTAINING GROWTH AND MANAGING RISKS""; ""A. Transition to a New Growth Model""; ""B. Addressing Vulnerabilities and Managing Demand""; ""SCENARIOS AND SPILLOVERS""; ""STAFF APPRAISAL""; ""A. Revised Estimate on Augmented Balance and Debt""; ""B. LGFVs: Government Units or Nonfinancial Public Corporations?""; ""C. Technical Details on Augmented Estimates:""; ""BOXES"" 327 $a""1. Real Estate: Impact of a Market Correction""""2. Corporate Leverage in China""; ""3. Local Government Finances""; ""4. Rapid Growth in Shadow Banking and Internet Finance""; ""5. International Perspective on China's Credit Boom""; ""6. Fiscal Options: Reducing the Deficit and Promoting Inclusive Growth""; ""7. Fiscal Policy for Greener Growth""; ""8. RMB Internationalization""; ""9. External Assessment""; ""10. Potential Growth and Output Gap""; ""11. Giving Credit for China's Slowdowna???The Third-Plenum Reform Blueprint""; ""FIGURES""; ""1. Growth and Inflation"" 327 $a""2. Financial Sector Development""""3. Rebalancing""; ""4. Balance of Payments""; ""5. Banking Sector""; ""TABLES""; ""1. Selected Economic Indicators""; ""2. Balance of Payments""; ""3. Indicators of External Vulnerability""; ""4. Monetary Developments""; ""5. General Government Fiscal Data""; ""6. Illustrative Medium-Term Scenario""; ""APPENDICES""; ""I. Summary of Staff Recommendations and Announced Reform Initiatives Following the Third Plenum""; ""II. Progress on Key Recommendations of the FSAP, 2013a???2014""; ""III. Augmented Fiscal Data""; ""IV. Risk Assessment Matrix"" 327 $a""V. Debt Sustainability Analysis""""CONTENTS""; ""FUND RELATIONS""; ""WORLD BANK-IMF COLLABORATION""; ""RELATIONS WITH THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK""; ""STATISTICAL ISSUES""; ""TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE"" 330 3 $aKEY ISSUES Context. After three decades of remarkable growth, the economy has been slowing. Much of the slowdown has been structural, reflecting the natural convergence process and waning dividends from past reforms; weak global growth has also contributed. Moreover, since the global financial crisis, growth has relied too much on investment and credit, which is not sustainable and has created rising vulnerabilities. Growth was 7.7 percent in 2013, and is expected to slow to around 7½ percent this year and decline further over the medium term. Focus. The pattern of growth since the global financial crisis is not sustainable and has resulted in rising vulnerabilities. The discussions focused on assessing the risks posed by the continued build-up of vulnerabilities; reforms to unleash new, sustainable engines of growth and reduce vulnerabilities; and how to best manage aggregate demand in this context, as growth is slowing yet risks are still rising. A key takeaway is that to secure a safer development path, accommodative policies need to be carefully unwound, accompanied by decisive implementation of the announced reform agenda to promote rebalancing. The result will be somewhat slower but safer growth in the near term, with the significant long-run benefit of securing more inclusive, environment-friendly, and sustainable growth. Risks. Credit and ?shadow banking,? local government finances, and the corporate sector? particularly real estate?are the key, and interlinked, areas of rising vulnerability. In the near term, the risk of a hard landing is still considered low as the government has the capacity to combat potential shocks. However, without a change in the pattern of growth, the hard-landing risk continues to rise and is assessed to be medium-likely over the medium term. Reform agenda. The authorities have announced a comprehensive and ambitious blueprint of reforms. Successful implementation should achieve the desired transformation of the economy, but will also be challenging. Demand management. Reining in credit growth, local government borrowing, and investment will address the risks, but also slow growth. Macro support should be calibrated to allow needed adjustments to take place, while preventing growth from slowing too much. Scenarios and spillovers. With faster adjustment and reform implementation, growth will be somewhat lower in the near term, with moderate spillovers for trading partners. However, in the medium term, income and consumption will both be higher?a result that is good for China and good for the global economy. 410 0$aIMF Staff Country Reports; Country Report ;$vNo. 2014/235 606 $aInternational economic relations 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aMoney and Monetary Policy$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aStatistics$2imf 606 $aCriminology$2imf 606 $aData Collection and Data Estimation Methodology$2imf 606 $aComputer Programs: Other$2imf 606 $aDebt$2imf 606 $aDebt Management$2imf 606 $aSovereign Debt$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General$2imf 606 $aIllegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law$2imf 606 $aBanks$2imf 606 $aDepository Institutions$2imf 606 $aMicro Finance Institutions$2imf 606 $aMortgages$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aMonetary economics$2imf 606 $aCorporate crime$2imf 606 $awhite-collar crime$2imf 606 $aBanking$2imf 606 $aPublic debt$2imf 606 $aAnti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT)$2imf 606 $aShadow banking$2imf 606 $aCredit$2imf 606 $aFinancial statistics$2imf 606 $aCrime$2imf 606 $aMoney$2imf 606 $aFinancial services$2imf 606 $aEconomic and financial statistics$2imf 606 $aDebts, Public$2imf 606 $aMoney laundering$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aNonbank financial institutions$2imf 606 $aLaw and legislation$2imf 607 $aChina$xEconomic conditions 607 $aChina$xSocial conditions 607 $aChina, People's Republic of$2imf 615 0$aInternational economic relations. 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aMoney and Monetary Policy 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aStatistics 615 7$aCriminology 615 7$aData Collection and Data Estimation Methodology 615 7$aComputer Programs: Other 615 7$aDebt 615 7$aDebt Management 615 7$aSovereign Debt 615 7$aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General 615 7$aIllegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law 615 7$aBanks 615 7$aDepository Institutions 615 7$aMicro Finance Institutions 615 7$aMortgages 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aMonetary economics 615 7$aCorporate crime 615 7$awhite-collar crime 615 7$aBanking 615 7$aPublic debt 615 7$aAnti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) 615 7$aShadow banking 615 7$aCredit 615 7$aFinancial statistics 615 7$aCrime 615 7$aMoney 615 7$aFinancial services 615 7$aEconomic and financial statistics 615 7$aDebts, Public 615 7$aMoney laundering 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aNonbank financial institutions 615 7$aLaw and legislation 676 $a330.951 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910826248003321 996 $aPeople's Republic of China$91145746 997 $aUNINA