LEADER 04671nam 2200673Ia 450 001 9910826197203321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-4755-7926-8 010 $a1-4755-1366-6 035 $a(CKB)2670000000278881 035 $a(EBL)1606970 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000949366 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11485485 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000949366 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10996404 035 $a(PQKB)11099566 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1606970 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10627102 035 $a(OCoLC)870245044 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012219 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012219 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606970 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000278881 100 $a20121206d2012 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aDissecting savings dynamics $emeasuring wealth, precautionary, and credit effects /$fprepared by Christopher Carroll, Jiri Slacalek and Martin Sommer 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aWashington, D.C. $cInternational Monetary Fund$dc2012 215 $a1 online resource (48 p.) 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/219 300 $a"September 2012." 311 $a1-4755-9434-8 311 $a1-4755-0569-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Personal Saving Rate in 2007-2011 and Previous Recessions; II. Theory: Target Wealth and Credit Conditions; 2. Consumption Function (Stable Arm of Phase Diagram); 3. A Wealth Shock; 4. Relaxation of a Natural Borrowing Constraint from 0 to h; 5. Dynamics of the Saving Rate after an Increase in Unemployment Risk; III. Data and Measurement Issues; 6. Net Worth-Disposable Income Ratio; 7. The Credit Easing Accumulated (CEA) Index; 8. Unemployment Risk E[sub(t)]u[sub(t+4)] and Unemployment Rate (Percent); IV. Reduced-Form Saving Regressions 327 $aA. Baseline Estimates 9. The Fit of the Baseline Model and the Time Trend-Actual and Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income); B. Robustness Checks; 10. The Fit of the Baseline Model and the Model with Full Controls (of Table 2)-Actual and Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income); C. Sub-Sample Stability; D. Saving Rate Decompositions; V. Structural Estimation; A. Estimation Procedure; B. Results; 11. Extent of Credit Constraints mt (Fraction of Quarterly Disposable Income); 12. Per Quarter Permanent Unemployment Risk ?[sub(t)] 327 $a13. Fit of the Structural Model-Actual and Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income)14. Decomposition of Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income); VI. Conclusions; 15. Alternative Measures of Credit Availability; 16. Growth of Real Disposable Income (Percent); 17. Personal Saving Rate (Percent of Disposable Income); Tables; 1. Preliminary Saving Regressions and the Time Trend; 2. Additional Saving Regressions I.-Robustness to Explanatory Variables; 3. Additional Saving Regressions II.-Sub-sample Stability; 4. Personal Saving Rate-Actual and Explained Change, 2007-2010 327 $a5. Calibration and Structural Estimates6. Preliminary Saving Regressions and the Time Trend-Saving Rate Generated by the Structural Model; 7. Univariate Properties of Disposable Income and Personal Saving Rate; 8. Campbell (1987) Saving for a Rainy Day Regressions; References 330 3 $aWe argue that the U.S. personal saving rate?s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ?buffer stock? model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ?target? and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the saving rate?s long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/219 606 $aSaving and investment 606 $aWealth 615 0$aSaving and investment. 615 0$aWealth. 676 $a332.024 700 $aCarroll$b Christopher$0265898 701 $aSlacalek$b Jiri$f1975-$01759740 701 $aSommer$b Martin$01696162 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910826197203321 996 $aDissecting savings dynamics$94198386 997 $aUNINA