LEADER 05665oam 22012494 450 001 9910825975603321 005 20240402051224.0 010 $a1-4623-9310-1 010 $a1-4527-1374-X 010 $a1-4518-7250-X 010 $a1-282-84318-4 010 $a9786612843181 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055264 035 $a(EBL)1608293 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000939925 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11600605 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939925 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10938812 035 $a(PQKB)10476928 035 $a(OCoLC)645458446 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608293 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009103 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055264 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe Persistence of Capital Account Crises /$fMauro Mecagni, Ruben Atoyan, David Hofman 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (29 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1680-9 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Conceptual Framework and Methodology; A. Crisis Persistence, Complexity, and Macroeconomic Effects; Figures; 1. Average Duration and Crisis Complexity; Tables; 1. Duration and Nature of Crises; 2. Crisis Complexity, Duration, and Macroeconomic Costs; B. Determinants of the Duration of Crises; 3. Post-Crisis Vulnerabilities; C. Econometric Methodology; III. Persistence of Capital Account Crises; A. Estimation Results and Robustness Tests; 2. Estimation Results for the Capital Account Crises Duration Model; Boxes; 1. Some Further Diagnostic Results 327 $aB. Counterfactual Experiments 3. Descriptive Statistics for the Model Variables; 4. Predicted Probabilities of Staying in Crisis under Different Scenarios; 5. Increase in Predicted Probability of Exit from Crisis under Various Scenarios; 6. Reduction in Predicted Crisis Duration under Various Scenarios; IV. Conclusions; Appendices; 1. Measuring the Duration of Capital Account Crises; 2. A Model for the Duration of Capital Account Crises; References 330 3 $aThis study contributes to the literature on capital account crises in two ways. First, our analysis of crisis episodes between 1994 and 2002 establishes a clear relationship between the persistence of crises, their complexity, and the intensity of movement of key macroeconomic variables. Second, we provide a systematic examination of the determinants of crisis duration. Our econometric analysis suggests that initial conditions and the external environment plays a key role in determining crisis persistence. The policy response also matters, but cannot offset a record of poor past policies. Overall, the results underscore the critical importance of crisis prevention efforts. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/103 606 $aCapital movements 606 $aFinancial crises 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aFinancial Risk Management$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aCurrent Account Adjustment$2imf 606 $aShort-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aInternational Lending and Debt Problems$2imf 606 $aDuration Analysis$2imf 606 $aIndex Numbers and Aggregation$2imf 606 $aleading indicators$2imf 606 $aFinancial Crises$2imf 606 $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aEconomic & financial crises & disasters$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aFinancial crises$2imf 606 $aCapital account crisis$2imf 606 $aReal interest rates$2imf 606 $aExchange rate arrangements$2imf 606 $aExternal debt$2imf 606 $aBalance of payments$2imf 606 $aFinancial services$2imf 606 $aInterest rates$2imf 606 $aDebts, External$2imf 607 $aTurkey$2imf 615 0$aCapital movements. 615 0$aFinancial crises. 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aFinancial Risk Management 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aCurrent Account Adjustment 615 7$aShort-term Capital Movements 615 7$aInternational Lending and Debt Problems 615 7$aDuration Analysis 615 7$aIndex Numbers and Aggregation 615 7$aleading indicators 615 7$aFinancial Crises 615 7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aEconomic & financial crises & disasters 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aFinancial crises 615 7$aCapital account crisis 615 7$aReal interest rates 615 7$aExchange rate arrangements 615 7$aExternal debt 615 7$aBalance of payments 615 7$aFinancial services 615 7$aInterest rates 615 7$aDebts, External 676 $a332.152 700 $aMecagni$b Mauro$0453540 701 $aAtoyan$b Ruben$0855108 701 $aHofman$b David$01637021 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910825975603321 996 $aThe Persistence of Capital Account Crises$93978587 997 $aUNINA