LEADER 08439oam 22013814 450 001 9910825921303321 005 20240402045814.0 010 $a1-4755-3974-6 010 $a1-4755-8631-0 010 $a1-283-94783-8 035 $a(CKB)2550000001003748 035 $a(EBL)1607063 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000949380 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11512175 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000949380 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10998151 035 $a(PQKB)10497123 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607063 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1607063 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10644337 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL426033 035 $a(OCoLC)870245054 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012272 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012272 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000001003748 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe East African Community : $eProspects for Sustained Growth /$fCatherine McAuliffe, Sweta Saxena, Masafumi Yabara 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (56 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/272 300 $aAt head of title: African Department -- verso of t.p. 300 $a"November 2012" -- verso of t.p. 311 $a1-4755-5357-9 311 $a1-4755-3942-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction and Summary; Figures; Figure 1. Real GDP per Capita Growth; Figure 2. Cumulative Growth in Real GDP per Capita; Figure 3. Real GDP per capita (2000 exchange rates); Figure 4. Poverty Headcount Ratio at 1.25 a Day (PPP); Boxes; 1. East African Community: An Overview; II. Review of the Literature; III. Explaining Growth: The Empirical Framework; A. Identifying Growth Episodes; 2. Definitions of Accelerated and Sustained Growth Episode; B. Predicting Growth Episodes-Regression Analysis; Tables; 1. Growth Episodes of Commodity Exporters 327 $a2. Predicting Growth Accelerations 3. Predicting Sustained Growth Episodes; C. Differentiating Sustained-and non-sustained-Growth: A Complimentary Analysis; 4. Explaining Growth; Figure 5. SGs vs. Non-SGs: Real GDP Per Capita Growth Rate; Figure 6. SGs vs. Non-SGs: Investment and Productivity; Figure 7. SGs vs. Non-SGs: Public Sector Finance; Figure 8. SGs vs. Non-SGs: Quality of Institutions; Figure 9. SGs vs. Non-SGs: CPI Inflation; Figure 10. SGs vs. Non-SGs: Human Capital; Figure 11. SGs vs. Non-SGs: Infrastructure -Telephone Lines (per 100 people) 327 $aFigure 12. SGs vs. Non-SGs: Financial Development 5. Possible Drivers and Risk Factors for Sustained High Growth; Figure 13. SGs vs. Non-SGs: External Competitiveness; IV. How Does Growth in the EAC Compare to Other High Growth Countries?: A Benchmarking Exercise; Figure 14. Real GDP Per Capita Growth Rate (five-year moving average); Figure 15. Cumulative Growth in Real per Capita GDP for SGs and Non-SGs; Figure 16. Real GDP Per Capita (t = 100); A. Investment and Productivity; Figure 17. Total Factor Productivity (t = 100, five-year moving average); B. Improved Macroeconomic Stability 327 $aFigure 18. Foreign Direct Investment/GDP (Five-year moving average)Figure 19. Fiscal Balance/GDP (t = 100, five-year moving average); C. Quality of Institutions and Infrastructure; Figure 20. CPI Inflation (five-year moving average); Figure 21. Quality of Institutions; 3. Structural Reforms and Institution Building in the EAC; Figure 22. Telephone Lines (Per 100 people); Figure 23. Mortality Rate Under Five (Per 1000); D. Limited Financial Depth and Low Domestic Savings; Figure 24. Average Years of Schooling; Figure 25. Broad Money (five-year moving average) 327 $aFigure 26. Credit to Private Sector/GDP (Five-year moving average)Figure 27. Domestic Savings/GDP (Five-year moving average); Figure 28. Savings Minus Investment (Five-year moving average); Figure 29. ODA excluding Debt Relief/GDP (Five-year moving average); Figure 30. Financial Liberalization 0 (fully repressed) - 1 (fully liberalized); E. External Competitiveness; Figure 31. Real Effective Exchange Rate (t = 100, five-year moving average); Figure 32. Current Account Balance/GDP (Five-year moving average); Figure 33. Exports/GDP (Five-year moving average); Figure 34. Export Concentration 327 $a4. The EAC Common Market: Achievements and Remaining Challenge 330 3 $aThe East African Community (EAC) has been among the fastest growing regions in sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade or so. Nonetheless, the recent growth path will not be enough to achieve middle-income status and substantial poverty reduction by the end of the decade?the ambition of most countries in the region. This paper builds on methodologies established in the growth literature to identify a group of countries that achieved growth accelerations and sustained growth to use as benchmarks to evaluate the prospects, and potential constraints, for EAC countries to translate their recent growth upturn into sustained high growth. We find that EAC countries compare favorably to the group of sustained growth countries?macroeconomic and government stability, favorable business climate, and strong institutions?but important differences remain. EAC countries have a smaller share of exports, lower degree of financial deepening, lower levels of domestic savings, higher reliance on donor aid, and limited physical infrastructure and human capital. Policy choices to address some of these shortcomings could make a difference in whether the EAC follows the path of sustained growth or follows other countries where growth upturns later fizzled out. . 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/272 606 $aEconomic development$zAfrica, East 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aIndustries: Financial Services$2imf 606 $aProduction and Operations Management$2imf 606 $aTrade: General$2imf 606 $aFinancial Institutions and Services: General$2imf 606 $aDebt$2imf 606 $aDebt Management$2imf 606 $aSovereign Debt$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aExports$2imf 606 $aFinancial sector$2imf 606 $aGovernment debt management$2imf 606 $aReal exchange rates$2imf 606 $aProductivity$2imf 606 $aInternational trade$2imf 606 $aEconomic sectors$2imf 606 $aPublic financial management (PFM)$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aFinancial services industry$2imf 606 $aDebts, Public$2imf 606 $aIndustrial productivity$2imf 607 $aKenya$2imf 615 0$aEconomic development 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aIndustries: Financial Services 615 7$aProduction and Operations Management 615 7$aTrade: General 615 7$aFinancial Institutions and Services: General 615 7$aDebt 615 7$aDebt Management 615 7$aSovereign Debt 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aExports 615 7$aFinancial sector 615 7$aGovernment debt management 615 7$aReal exchange rates 615 7$aProductivity 615 7$aInternational trade 615 7$aEconomic sectors 615 7$aPublic financial management (PFM) 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aFinancial services industry 615 7$aDebts, Public 615 7$aIndustrial productivity 676 $a332 700 $aMcAuliffe$b Catherine$01693563 701 $aSaxena$b Sweta$01680577 701 $aYabara$b Masafumi$01693564 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910825921303321 996 $aThe East African Community$94071436 997 $aUNINA