LEADER 05755oam 22013214 450 001 9910825202103321 005 20240402045757.0 010 $a1-4755-7353-7 010 $a1-4755-6066-4 010 $a1-283-86693-5 010 $a1-4755-7515-7 035 $a(CKB)2550000000709428 035 $a(EBL)1607051 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001101479 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11625244 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001101479 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11068884 035 $a(PQKB)11324431 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1607051 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10635354 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL417943 035 $a(OCoLC)816025643 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012266 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012266 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607051 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000709428 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe Spillover Effects of a Downturn in China?s Real Estate Investment /$fAshvin Ahuja, Alla Myrvoda 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (25 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/266 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-4900-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Modeling the Spillover Effects; III. Domestic Feedback; Table; Table 1. Impacts one year after a 1-percent exogenous decline in China's real estate investment: Selected China Indicators; IV. Global Spillover; Table 2. Impacts one year after a 1-percent exogenous decline in China's real estate; Table 3. Impacts one year after a 1-percent exogenous decline in China's real estate investment: Trade Indicators; Table 4. Impacts one year after a 1-standard-deviation exogenous decline in China's real estate investment: Selected Commodity Prices; V. Conclusion 327 $aReferencesAppendix; A: The China-G20 Macro Financial FAVAR; B: Data Transformation and Sources 330 3 $aReal estate investment accounts for a quarter of total fixed asset investment (FAI) in China. The real estate sector?s extensive industrial and financial linkages make it a special type of economic activity, especially where the credit creation process relies primarily on collateral, like in China. As a result, the impact on economic activity of a collapse in real estate investment in China?though a low-probability event?would be sizable, with large spillovers to a number of China?s trading partners. Using a two-region factor-augmented vector autoregression model that allows for interaction between China and the rest of the G20 economies, we find that a 1-percent decline in China?s real estate investment would shave about 0.1 percent off China?s real GDP within the first year, with negative spillover impacts to China?s G20 trading partners that would cause global output to decline by roughly 0.05 percent from baseline. Japan, Korea, and Germany would be among the hardest hit. In that event, commodity prices, especially metal prices, could fall by as much as 0.8?2.2 percent below baseline one year after the shock. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/266 606 $aReal estate investment$zChina 606 $aFinancial crises$zChina 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aIndustries: General$2imf 606 $aInvestment$2imf 606 $aCapital$2imf 606 $aIntangible Capital$2imf 606 $aCapacity$2imf 606 $aGlobalization: Macroeconomic Impacts$2imf 606 $aComparative Studies of Countries$2imf 606 $aTrade: General$2imf 606 $aCommodity Markets$2imf 606 $aMetals and Metal Products$2imf 606 $aCement$2imf 606 $aGlass$2imf 606 $aCeramics$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aCommodity prices$2imf 606 $aExports$2imf 606 $aImports$2imf 606 $aMetal prices$2imf 606 $aIndustrial production$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aInternational trade$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aMetals$2imf 606 $aIndustries$2imf 607 $aChina, People's Republic of$2imf 615 0$aReal estate investment 615 0$aFinancial crises 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aIndustries: General 615 7$aInvestment 615 7$aCapital 615 7$aIntangible Capital 615 7$aCapacity 615 7$aGlobalization: Macroeconomic Impacts 615 7$aComparative Studies of Countries 615 7$aTrade: General 615 7$aCommodity Markets 615 7$aMetals and Metal Products 615 7$aCement 615 7$aGlass 615 7$aCeramics 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aCommodity prices 615 7$aExports 615 7$aImports 615 7$aMetal prices 615 7$aIndustrial production 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aInternational trade 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aMetals 615 7$aIndustries 676 $a333.30951 700 $aAhuja$b Ashvin$01599194 701 $aMyrvoda$b Alla$01206799 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910825202103321 996 $aThe Spillover Effects of a Downturn in China?s Real Estate Investment$93921769 997 $aUNINA