LEADER 05071oam 22006735 450 001 9910824597203321 005 20240314003237.0 010 $a0-8213-9924-1 024 7 $a10.1596/978-0-8213-9923-1 035 $a(CKB)2550000001094911 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000917168 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11461536 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000917168 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10878249 035 $a(PQKB)10117805 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1224995 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1224995 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10732007 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL501822 035 $a(OCoLC)854974325 035 $a(The World Bank)17750413 035 $a(US-djbf)17750413 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000001094911 100 $a20130523d2013 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cn$2rdamedia 183 $anc$2rdacarrier 200 00$aToward climate-resilient development in Nigeria /$fRaffaello Cervigni, Riccardo Valentini, Monia Santini, editors 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cThe World Bank,$d2013. 215 $a1 online resource (pages cm) 300 $a"The report was prepared by a World Bank team led by Raffaello Cervigni and including (in alphabetical order) Abimbola A. Adubi, Ademola Braimoh, Amos Abu, Anushika Karunaratne, Benedicte Marie Cecile Augeard , Beula Selvadurai, Ella Omomene Iklaga, Erik Magnus Fernstrom, Francesca Fusaro, Irina Dvorak, Joseph Ese Akpokodje, Rikard Liden, Sarwat Hussain, Shobha Shetty, Stephen Danyo, Stephen Ling. Onno Ruhl, former Country Director for Nigeria, provided guidance and institutional support." 311 $a0-8213-9923-3 311 $a1-299-70571-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $tIntroduction --$tCountry and sector background --$tMethodology of analysis --$tClimate projections and their uncertainty --$tClimate change impact analysis --$tAdaptation options in the agriculture and water sectors --$tConclusions and recommendations. 330 $aIf not addressed in time, climate change is expected to exacerbate Nigeria’s currentvulnerability to weather swings and limit its ability to achieve and sustain the objectivesof Vision 20:2020 [as defined in http://www.npc.gov.ng /home/doc.aspx?mCatID=68253].The likely impacts include:• A long-term reduction in crop yields of 20-30 percent• Declining productivity of livestock, with adverse consequences on livelihoods• Increase in food imports (up to 40 percent for rice long term)• Worsening prospects for food security, particularly in the north and the southwest• A long-term decline in GDP of up to 4.5 percentThe impacts may be worse if the economy diversifies away from agriculture more slowlythan Vision 20:2020 anticipates, or if there is too little irrigation to counter the effects ofrising temperatures on rain-fed yields. Equally important, investment decisions made on the basis of historical climate may bewrong: projects ignoring climate change might be either under- or over-designed, withlosses (in terms of excess capital costs or foregone revenues) of 20-40 percent of initialcapital in the case of irrigation or hydropower.Fortunately, there is a range of technological and management options that make sense,both to better handle current climate variability and to build resilience against a harsherclimate:• By 2020 sustainable land management practices applied to 1 million hectares can offsetmost of the expected shorter-term yield decline; gradual extension of these practices to50 percent of cropland, possibly combined with extra irrigation, can also counter-balancelonger-term climate change impacts.• Climate-smart planning and design of irrigation and hydropower can more than halvethe risks and related costs of making the wrong investment decision.The Federal Government could consider 10 short-term priority responses to buildresilience to 330 8 $aboth current climate variability and future change through actions toimprove climate governance across sectors, research and extension in agriculture,hydro-meteorological systems; integration of climate factors into the design of irrigationand hydropower projects, and mainstreaming climate concerns into priority programs,such as the Agriculture Transformation Agenda. 410 0$aWorld Bank e-Library. 606 $aSustainable development$zNigeria 606 $aClimatic changes$zNigeria 606 $aClimatic changes$xEconomic aspects$zNigeria 606 $aCrops and climate$zNigeria 615 0$aSustainable development 615 0$aClimatic changes 615 0$aClimatic changes$xEconomic aspects 615 0$aCrops and climate 676 $a338.9669 701 $aCervigni$b Raffaello$0127074 701 $aValentini$b R$g(Riccardo),$f1959-$0309251 701 $aSantini$b Monia$01611029 801 0$bIEN/DLC 801 1$bIEN 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910824597203321 996 $aToward climate-resilient development in Nigeria$93939042 997 $aUNINA