LEADER 09531oam 22015734 450 001 9910823113103321 005 20240405035112.0 010 $a1-4983-8524-9 010 $a1-4843-6643-3 010 $a1-4843-5058-8 035 $a(CKB)2550000001352345 035 $a(EBL)1779703 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001399020 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11805755 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001399020 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11450141 035 $a(PQKB)10080724 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1779703 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1779703 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10928012 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL642262 035 $a(OCoLC)890530047 035 $a(IMF)1PHLEE2014001 035 $a(IMF)1PHLEA2014001 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000001352345 100 $a20020129d2014 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aPhilippines : $eStaff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2014. 215 $a1 online resource (84 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Staff Country Reports 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4983-5305-3 311 $a1-322-11011-5 327 $aCover; CONTENTS; CONTEXT; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, OUTLOOK, AND RISKS; PRESERVING STABILITY AMID STRUCTURAL AND CYCLICAL FLOWS; A. External Sector Assessment; B. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy; C. Financial Sector Issues; D. Fiscal Policy; STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION FOR QUALITY GROWTH; STAFF APPRAISAL; BOXES; 1. Natural Disaster Risks and Addressing Their Social and Economic Consequences; 2. What is Driving Philippines' Growth?; 3. Financial Flows; 4. What is Happening to Potential Growth?; 5. Recent Monetary and Liquidity Policy Measures; 6. Status of Public-Private Partnership Projects 327 $a7. A Cross-Country Perspective on Bank Credit Penetration 8. Conditional Cash Transfer Program; 9. Progress in Fiscal Transparency; FIGURES; 1. Macroeconomic Developments; 2. Real Sector; 3. Financial Markets; 4. Financial Market Comparisons; 5. Cross-Country Financial Market Developments; 6. Monetary and Financial Conditions; 7. External Sector; 8. Banking Sector; 9. Emerging Markets: Social Conditions and Income Distribution; TABLES; 1. Selected Economic Indicators, 2010-15; 2. National Government Cash Accounts, 2009-15 (In billions of pesos) 327 $a3. National Government Cash Accounts, 2009-15 (In percent of GDP)4. General Government Operations, 2009-15; 5. Depository Corporation Survey, 2009-13; 6. Balance of Payments, 2010-15; 7. Medium-Term Outlook, 2011-19; 8. Banking Sector Indicators, 2009-13; 9. Indicators of External Vulnerability, 2007-13; APPENDICES; 1. Risk Assessment Matrix; 2. External Sector Assessment; 3. Developments in Real Estate; 4. Debt Sustainability Analysis; CONTENTS; FUND RELATIONS; IMF-WORLD BANK COLLABORATION; RELATIONS WITH THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK; STATISTICAL ISSUES 330 3 $aKEY ISSUES Context. Growth remains rapid, but has moderated from the 7¼ percent recorded in 2013. Remittances and accommodative monetary and financial conditions remain the primary growth drivers, despite volatile capital flows, slowing activity in the region and severe natural disasters. Inflation has picked up to over 4 percent, while the current account remains in surplus. Local financial markets were moderately impacted by the Fed?s ?taper talk and action,? weakening the peso and equity prices. Credit growth has quickened, especially to construction. Potential growth has risen to about 6?6¼ percent. However, persistent weakness in the business climate is a risk to sustained growth and hinders job creation. Foreign ownership restrictions, inadequate infrastructure and high doing-business costs have held back overall investment and employment. Along with frequent natural disasters, this has kept poverty elevated, thereby sustaining outward migration. Outlook and risks. Normalizing financial conditions are forecast to ease growth to 6?6½ percent over the medium term, while keeping inflation within the band and moderating the current account surplus. Abrupt changes in global financial conditions and a sharp growth slowdown in EMs are among the external growth risks. On the domestic front, excessive flow of real and financial resources to the property sector could increase volatility of asset prices and GDP growth over the longer run. Policy recommendations. A more restrictive policy stance is needed to preserve macro- financial stability, with rebalancing of the mix to allow higher public investment spending, while implementing reforms to sustain vibrant growth and make it more inclusive: ? Absorbing liquidity and raising official interest rates would address second-round inflation effects and potential overheating and financial stability risks. Allowing the exchange rate to adjust more fully to structural inflows, while smoothing the effect of cyclical flows, would limit further sustained reserve buildup. ? Addressing specific risks from real estate and large credit exposures requires further targeted measures and broadening the BSP?s mandate to include financial stability. This would help prevent diversion of systemic risk to shadow banking and strengthen tools to manage risks from deepening cross-border financial integration. ? Raising the fiscal deficit from below 1½ percent of GDP in 2013 to 2 percent of GDP in 2014 to accommodate reconstruction spending should be accompanied by tighter monetary and financial conditions. Mobilizing sizable additional stable revenue would ensure room for structural spending priorities while preserving fiscal prudence. ? Improving the investment climate by relaxing foreign ownership limits, reducing red tape, limiting tax holidays, and reducing labor and product market rigidities would enhance competition, support PPP execution and create employment opportunities within the Philippines. 410 0$aIMF Staff Country Reports; Country Report ;$vNo. 2014/245 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMoney and Monetary Policy$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aNatural Disasters$2imf 606 $aBudgeting$2imf 606 $aStatistics$2imf 606 $aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General$2imf 606 $aDebt$2imf 606 $aDebt Management$2imf 606 $aSovereign Debt$2imf 606 $aBanks$2imf 606 $aDepository Institutions$2imf 606 $aMicro Finance Institutions$2imf 606 $aMortgages$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General$2imf 606 $aClimate$2imf 606 $aNatural Disasters and Their Management$2imf 606 $aGlobal Warming$2imf 606 $aNational Budget$2imf 606 $aBudget Systems$2imf 606 $aGeneral Aggregative Models: General$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aBanking$2imf 606 $aMonetary economics$2imf 606 $aNatural disasters$2imf 606 $aBudgeting & financial management$2imf 606 $aCivil service & public sector$2imf 606 $aPublic debt$2imf 606 $aExpenditure$2imf 606 $aPublic financial management (PFM)$2imf 606 $aBank credit$2imf 606 $aEnvironment$2imf 606 $aBudget planning and preparation$2imf 606 $aNational accounts$2imf 606 $aDebts, Public$2imf 606 $aBanks and banking$2imf 606 $aExpenditures, Public$2imf 606 $aFinance, Public$2imf 606 $aCredit$2imf 606 $aBudget$2imf 607 $aPhilippines$xEconomic policy 607 $aPhilippines$2imf 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMoney and Monetary Policy 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aNatural Disasters 615 7$aBudgeting 615 7$aStatistics 615 7$aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General 615 7$aDebt 615 7$aDebt Management 615 7$aSovereign Debt 615 7$aBanks 615 7$aDepository Institutions 615 7$aMicro Finance Institutions 615 7$aMortgages 615 7$aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General 615 7$aClimate 615 7$aNatural Disasters and Their Management 615 7$aGlobal Warming 615 7$aNational Budget 615 7$aBudget Systems 615 7$aGeneral Aggregative Models: General 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aBanking 615 7$aMonetary economics 615 7$aNatural disasters 615 7$aBudgeting & financial management 615 7$aCivil service & public sector 615 7$aPublic debt 615 7$aExpenditure 615 7$aPublic financial management (PFM) 615 7$aBank credit 615 7$aEnvironment 615 7$aBudget planning and preparation 615 7$aNational accounts 615 7$aDebts, Public 615 7$aBanks and banking 615 7$aExpenditures, Public 615 7$aFinance, Public 615 7$aCredit 615 7$aBudget 676 $a332.152 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910823113103321 996 $aPhilippines$91147238 997 $aUNINA