LEADER 03320nam  2200625Ia 450 
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005 20200520144314.0
010   $a1-4623-8210-X
010   $a1-4519-9138-X
010   $a1-283-51703-5
010   $a9786613829481
010   $a1-4519-0863-6
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035   $a(EBL)3014478
035   $a(SSID)ssj0000943021
035   $a(PQKBManifestationID)11593656
035   $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943021
035   $a(PQKBWorkID)10975307
035   $a(PQKB)10896271
035   $a(OCoLC)694141153
035   $a(IMF)WPIEE2006067
035   $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3014478
035   $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443874
100   $a20070314d2006      uf         0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aPrimary surplus behavior and risks to fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries $ea "fan-chart" approach /$fO. Celasun, X. Debrun, and J. D. Ostry
205   $a1st ed.
210   $a[Washington, D.C.] $cInternational Monetary Fund, Research and Fiscal Affairs Dept.$d2006
215   $a1 online resource (54 p.)
225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/06/67
300   $a"March 2006."
311   $a1-4518-6327-6 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS AND RISK""; ""III. DEBT DYNAMICS AND THE CONDUCT OF FISCAL POLICY""; ""IV. RISKS TO DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN FIVE EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES""; ""V. CONCLUSION""; ""Appendix""; ""REFERENCES""
330 3 $aThis paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations, combining pure economic disturbances (to growth, interest rates, and exchange rates), the endogenous policy response to these, and the possible shocks arising from fiscal policy itself. The paper emphasizes the role of fiscal behavior, as well as the structure of disturbances facing the economy and due to fiscal policy, in shaping the risk profile of public debt. Fan charts for debt are derived from the "marriage" between the pattern of shocks on the one hand and the endogenous response of fiscal policy on the other. Applications to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey are used to illustrate the approach and its limitations.
410  0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/06/67.
606   $aDebts, Public$xEconometric models
606   $aFiscal policy$xEconometric models
615  0$aDebts, Public$xEconometric models.
615  0$aFiscal policy$xEconometric models.
700   $aCelasun$b Oya$01631986
701   $aDebrun$b Xavier$01619196
701   $aOstry$b Jonathan David$f1962-$0550297
712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch and Fiscal Affairs Dept.
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910822934203321
996   $aPrimary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries$94174433
997   $aUNINA