LEADER 05889oam 22013334 450 001 9910821804203321 005 20240410162248.0 010 $a1-4623-6091-2 010 $a1-4527-5217-6 010 $a1-283-51819-8 010 $a1-4519-0805-9 010 $a9786613830647 035 $a(CKB)3360000000443988 035 $a(EBL)3012546 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000960516 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11536108 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000960516 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10949504 035 $a(PQKB)10500929 035 $a(OCoLC)535146951 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2006009 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3012546 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443988 100 $a20020129d2006 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe Global Impact of Demographic Change /$fTim Callen, Warwick McKibbin, Nicoletta Batini 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2006. 215 $a1 online resource (36 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"January 2006." 300 $a"McKibbin's research in this paper was supported by the Economic and Social Research Institute of the Japanese Cabinet Office International Collaborations Project through the Brookings Institution and was prepared as background material for the September 2004 World Economic Outlook."--Title page. 311 $a1-4518-6269-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 31-34). 327 $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. SOME BACKGROUND ON GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE""; ""III. MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE""; ""IV. HOW WILL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AFFECT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY?""; ""V. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS""; ""VI. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS""; ""Appendix: The Analytical Approach""; ""References"" 330 3 $aThe world is in the midst of a major demographic transition. This paper examines the implications of such transition over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, other industrial countries, and the developing regions of the world using a dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium four-country model containing demographics calibrated to the "medium variant" of the United Nations population projections. We find that population aging in industrial countries will reduce aggregate growth in these regions over time, but should boost growth in developing countries over the next 20-30 years, as the relative size of their workingage populations increases. Demographic change will also affect saving, investment, and capital flows, implying changes in global trade balances and asset prices. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about future productivity growth and country external risk for the developing country region. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2006/009 606 $aDemography$xEconometric models 606 $aPopulation$xEconomic aspects$xEconometric models 606 $aAging$xEconomic aspects$xEconometric models 606 $aSaving and investment$xEconometric models 606 $aCapital movements$xEconometric models 606 $aDemography$2imf 606 $aDemographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts$2imf 606 $aInternational Investment$2imf 606 $aLong-term Capital Movements$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Consumption$2imf 606 $aSaving$2imf 606 $aWealth$2imf 606 $aInvestment$2imf 606 $aCapital$2imf 606 $aIntangible Capital$2imf 606 $aCapacity$2imf 606 $aEconomics of the Elderly$2imf 606 $aEconomics of the Handicapped$2imf 606 $aNon-labor Market Discrimination$2imf 606 $aDemographic Economics: General$2imf 606 $aHealth: General$2imf 606 $aPopulation & demography$2imf 606 $aPopulation & migration geography$2imf 606 $aHealth economics$2imf 606 $aDemographic change$2imf 606 $aAging$2imf 606 $aPopulation and demographics$2imf 606 $aPopulation growth$2imf 606 $aHealth$2imf 606 $aDemographic transition$2imf 606 $aPopulation$2imf 606 $aPopulation aging$2imf 607 $aJapan$2imf 615 0$aDemography$xEconometric models. 615 0$aPopulation$xEconomic aspects$xEconometric models. 615 0$aAging$xEconomic aspects$xEconometric models. 615 0$aSaving and investment$xEconometric models. 615 0$aCapital movements$xEconometric models. 615 7$aDemography 615 7$aDemographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts 615 7$aInternational Investment 615 7$aLong-term Capital Movements 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Consumption 615 7$aSaving 615 7$aWealth 615 7$aInvestment 615 7$aCapital 615 7$aIntangible Capital 615 7$aCapacity 615 7$aEconomics of the Elderly 615 7$aEconomics of the Handicapped 615 7$aNon-labor Market Discrimination 615 7$aDemographic Economics: General 615 7$aHealth: General 615 7$aPopulation & demography 615 7$aPopulation & migration geography 615 7$aHealth economics 615 7$aDemographic change 615 7$aAging 615 7$aPopulation and demographics 615 7$aPopulation growth 615 7$aHealth 615 7$aDemographic transition 615 7$aPopulation 615 7$aPopulation aging 700 $aCallen$b Tim$01630689 701 $aMcKibbin$b Warwick$01657392 701 $aBatini$b Nicoletta$01655456 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910821804203321 996 $aThe Global Impact of Demographic Change$94010818 997 $aUNINA