LEADER 08458oam 22015374 450 001 9910821505803321 005 20240405110411.0 010 $a1-4983-9784-0 010 $a1-4983-5704-0 035 $a(CKB)2670000000574357 035 $a(EBL)1831407 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001398971 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11790774 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001398971 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11447569 035 $a(PQKB)11074197 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1831407 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1831407 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10980871 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL656144 035 $a(OCoLC)894791629 035 $a(IMF)1BDIEA2014002 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000574357 100 $a20020129d2014 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aBurundi : $eStaff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2014. 215 $a1 online resource (93 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Staff Country Reports 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4983-3277-3 311 $a1-322-24864-8 327 $aCover; CONTENTS; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION; OUTLOOK AND RISKS; POLICY DISCUSSIONS; A. Expanding Fiscal Space and Mitigating Risks; B. Improving the Transmission of Monetary Policy and Allowing Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility; BOXES; 1. Fiscal Risks in Burundi; C. Improving Competitiveness and Allowing Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility; D. Safeguarding Financial Sector Soundness; 2: Burundi External Competitiveness Assessment, 2013; E. Other Structural Reforms: Achieving Inclusive Broad-Based Growth and Enhancing Competitiveness; PROGRAM ISSUES 327 $a3. Burundi Electricity Sector Developments 4. Spotlight on Quick Wins; STAFF APPRAISAL; FIGURES; 1. Recent Developments, 2008-14; 2. Monetary Developments, 2008-14; 3. Fiscal Developments, 2009-14; TABLES; 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2012-17; 2a. Central Government Operations, 2012-17 (BIF billion); 2b. Central Government Operations, 2012-17; 3. Monetary Survey, 2012-15; 4. Central Bank Accounts, 2012-14; 5. Balance of Payments, 2012-17; 6. Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2014-25; 7. Tentative Schedule of ECF Disbursements and Reviews, 2012-15 327 $a8. Banking Systems Soundness Indicators, 2009-2014 ANNEXES; I. Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM); II. Impediments to Growth; III. Deepening Burundi's Financial Intermediation; APPENDIX; I. Letter of Intent; Attachment I. Amendments to the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies; Attachment II. Amendments to the Technical Memorandum of Understanding 330 3 $aKEY ISSUES Context: Since the last Article IV Consultation in 2012, notable progress has been achieved to enhance macroeconomic stability, underpinned by the Fund-supported program. However, continued progress could be tested as the country faces a more challenging environment, due to increasing social and political tensions and frequent strikes in the run-up to the 2015 elections. Moreover, recent political developments reinforce uncertainties surrounding external budget support. Program: The Executive Board approved the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) on January 27, 2012, with a total access of SDR 30 million. The first, second, third, and fourth reviews were completed on July 27, 2012, February 14, 2013, September 6, 2013, and February 28, 2014, respectively. For the fifth review, all end-March performance criteria were observed, but fiscal revenues underperformed in the first quarter of 2014 requiring corrective fiscal measures (about 1 percent of GDP on an annual basis). Satisfactory progress has been made on structural reforms, albeit with some delays. Outlook and risks: The medium-term macroeconomic outlook is challenging. The principal near-term risk is an intensification of election-related uncertainty, economic disruptions and violence, which would affect investment and growth. Governance issues or delays in making measurable progress in public financial management (PFM) reforms, and heightening of political tensions could curtail donor support. Reintegrating repatriated refugees is likely to add to unemployment pressures, increase demand for public services, and exacerbate social conflict over access to land. Staff Views: The staff recommends the completion of the fifth review under the ECF arrangement, setting of revised performance criteria and indicative targets for September?December 2014, and disbursement of SDR 5 million. The authorities have consented to the publication of this report following the completion of the review. 410 0$aIMF Staff Country Reports; Country Report ;$vNo. 2014/293 606 $aEconomic indicators$zBurundi 606 $aEconomic forecasting$zBurundi 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aStatistics$2imf 606 $aMoney and Monetary Policy$2imf 606 $aBanks$2imf 606 $aDepository Institutions$2imf 606 $aMicro Finance Institutions$2imf 606 $aMortgages$2imf 606 $aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General$2imf 606 $aData Collection and Data Estimation Methodology$2imf 606 $aComputer Programs: Other$2imf 606 $aFiscal Policy$2imf 606 $aDebt$2imf 606 $aDebt Management$2imf 606 $aSovereign Debt$2imf 606 $aPublic Administration$2imf 606 $aPublic Sector Accounting and Audits$2imf 606 $aGeneral Aggregative Models: General$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aBanking$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aMonetary economics$2imf 606 $aPublic financial management (PFM)$2imf 606 $aGovernment finance statistics$2imf 606 $aExchange rate flexibility$2imf 606 $aFiscal policy$2imf 606 $aEconomic and financial statistics$2imf 606 $aFiscal risks$2imf 606 $aNational accounts$2imf 606 $aPublic debt$2imf 606 $aBanks and banking$2imf 606 $aFinance, Public$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aNational income$2imf 607 $aBurundi$xEconomic conditions 607 $aBurundi$xEconomic policy 607 $aBurundi$2imf 615 0$aEconomic indicators 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aStatistics 615 7$aMoney and Monetary Policy 615 7$aBanks 615 7$aDepository Institutions 615 7$aMicro Finance Institutions 615 7$aMortgages 615 7$aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General 615 7$aData Collection and Data Estimation Methodology 615 7$aComputer Programs: Other 615 7$aFiscal Policy 615 7$aDebt 615 7$aDebt Management 615 7$aSovereign Debt 615 7$aPublic Administration 615 7$aPublic Sector Accounting and Audits 615 7$aGeneral Aggregative Models: General 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aBanking 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aMonetary economics 615 7$aPublic financial management (PFM) 615 7$aGovernment finance statistics 615 7$aExchange rate flexibility 615 7$aFiscal policy 615 7$aEconomic and financial statistics 615 7$aFiscal risks 615 7$aNational accounts 615 7$aPublic debt 615 7$aBanks and banking 615 7$aFinance, Public 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aNational income 676 $a338.9675720091734 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910821505803321 996 $aBURUNDI$9633594 997 $aUNINA