LEADER 05434nam 2200673 450 001 9910821375003321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-118-83953-6 010 $a1-118-59441-X 035 $a(CKB)3710000000137424 035 $a(EBL)1718756 035 $a(OCoLC)879469438 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001225720 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11730789 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001225720 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11269976 035 $a(PQKB)10399307 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1718756 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1718756 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10887099 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL622062 035 $a(PPN)192779397 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000137424 100 $a20140709h20142014 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aWillful ignorance $ethe mismeasure of uncertainty /$fHerbert I. Weisberg 210 1$aHoboken, New Jersey :$cWiley,$d2014. 210 4$dİ2014 215 $a1 online resource (454 p.) 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a0-470-89044-4 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $aWILLFUL IGNORANCE; CONTENTS; PREFACE; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; CHAPTER 1 THE OPPOSITE OF CERTAINTY; TWO DEAD ENDS; ANALYTICAL ENGINES; WHAT IS PROBABILITY?; UNCERTAINTY; WILLFUL IGNORANCE; TOWARD A NEW SCIENCE; CHAPTER 2 A QUIET REVOLUTION; THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE; INVENTING PROBABILITY; STATISTICS; THE TAMING OF CHANCE; THE IGNORANCE FALLACY; THE DILEMMA OF SCIENCE; CHAPTER 3 A MATTER OF CHANCE; ORIGINS; Probability; Risky Business; Games, Odds, and Gambling; THE FAMOUS CORRESPONDENCE; Breaking the Symmetry Barrier; The Interrupted Game; WHAT DID NOT HAPPEN NEXT; AGAINST THE ODDS; A Fateful Journey 327 $aReasoning in Games of ChanceCHAPTER 4 HARDLY TOUCHED UPON; THE MATHEMATICS OF CHANCE; Juan Caramuel; Joseph Sauveur; Jacob Bernoulli; Thomas Strode; Two Scottish Refugees: John Arbuthnot and David Gregory; Isaac Newton; EMPIRICAL FREQUENCIES; John Graunt; William Petty; Three Dutch Masters: Huygens, Hudde, and De Witt; Jacob Bernoulli; Edmond Halley; A QUANTUM OF CERTAINTY; Why not Huygens or Leibniz?; What about Probabilism?; Bernoulli's Meditations; Across the Channel; CHAPTER 5 A MATHEMATICIAN OF BASEL; PUBLICATION AT LAST; THE ART OF CONJECTURING; Part One: The Annotated Huygens 327 $aPart Two: Permutations and CombinationsPart Three: Games of Chance; Part Four: Civil, Moral, and Economic Matters; A TRAGIC ENDING; CHAPTER 6 A DEFECT OF CHARACTER; MAN WITHOUT A COUNTRY; An Itinerant Teacher; Turning Point; Expanding His Empire; Defending His Empire; A Mixed Legacy; A FRACTION OF CHANCES; De Mensura Sortis; De Moivre's Epiphany; CHAPTER 7 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY; REVOLUTIONARY REVERENDS; The Reverend Thomas Bayes; The Reverend Richard Price; The Famous Essay; Philosophical Significance; FROM CHANCES TO PROBABILITY; The French Newton; Laplace's Philosophy of Probability 327 $aThe Probability of CausesInsufficient Reason; A Coincidence?; CHAPTER 8 BABEL; THE GREAT UNRAVELING; PROBABILITY AS A RELATIVE FREQUENCY; The Meaning of Randomness; The Reference Class Problem; The Problem of the Single Case; PROBABILITY AS A LOGICAL RELATIONSHIP; Keynesian Probability; PROBABILITY AS A SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT; Another Cambridge Prodigy; Subjectivity Italian Style; Subjectivity and Statistics; PROBABILITY AS A PROPENSITY; An Unorthodox Thinker; A World of Propensities; CHAPTER 9 PROBABILITY AND REALITY; THE RAZOR'S EDGE; WHAT FISHER KNEW; WHAT REFERENCE CLASS? 327 $aThe Monty Hall ProblemA POSTULATE OF IGNORANCE; Conditional Probabilities; Predicting Unique Events; Inside Information; The Two Envelope Problem; LAPLACE'S ERROR; CHAPTER 10 THE DECISION FACTORY; BEYOND MORAL CERTAINTY; Something Brewing; A Tale of Two Students; Contriving Ignorance; Statistical Significance; DECISIONS, DECISIONS; An Odd Couple; From Knowledge to Decisions; Rage Against the Machine; The Bayesian Revival; MACHINE-MADE KNOWLEDGE; CHAPTER 11 THE LOTTERY IN SCIENCE; SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS; Early Childhood Education; Aspirin for Prevention; FOOLED BY CAUSALITY; Heuristics and Biases 327 $aAre We Really So Dumb? 330 $a An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of exist 606 $aResearch$xStatistical methods 606 $aProbabilities 606 $aResearch$xMethodology 615 0$aResearch$xStatistical methods. 615 0$aProbabilities. 615 0$aResearch$xMethodology. 676 $a001.4/22 686 $aMAT029000$aMAT000000$aMED078000$2bisacsh 700 $aWeisberg$b Herbert I.$f1944-$01641376 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910821375003321 996 $aWillful ignorance$93985460 997 $aUNINA