LEADER 07022oam 22012494 450 001 9910820699303321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-4623-3965-4 010 $a1-4527-8339-X 010 $a1-4518-7001-9 010 $a9786612840944 010 $a1-282-84094-0 035 $a(CKB)3170000000054998 035 $a(EBL)1607835 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000941188 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11545404 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000941188 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10975368 035 $a(PQKB)11211956 035 $a(OCoLC)535147026 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2008143 035 $a(NBER)w14292 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607835 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3013079 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2008143 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000054998 100 $a20020129d2008 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aGlobal Business Cycles : $eConvergence or Decoupling? /$fAyhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, Christopher Otrok 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008. 215 $a1 online resource (51 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1454-7 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology and Data; A. A Dynamic Factor Model; B. Advantages of Dynamic Factor Models; C. Variance Decompositions; D. Data; III. Dynamic Factors and Episodes of Business Cycles; A. Evolution of the Global and Group-Specific Factors; B. Country Factors and Domestic Economic Activity; IV. Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations: 1960-2005; A. Common Cycles: Global and Country-Specific Factors; B. National Cycles: Country and Idiosyncratic Factors; C. Summary; V. Globalization and the Evolution of International Business Cycles; A. Convergence or Decoupling? 327 $aB. Consumption ComovementC. Dynamics of Investment; D. Summary; VI. Sensitivity Experiments; A. Results for Sub-groups of Countries; B. Changes in the Importance of Global and Group Factors; C. Implications of Crises; D. Alternative Breakpoints; VII. Conclusion; References; Appendices; I. A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Dynamic Factor Models; II. Testing for Structural Breaks; III. List of Countries; Tables; 1. Variance Decompositions-All Groups; 2. Variance Decompositions-Industrial Country Subsamples; 3. Variance Decompositions-All Groups 327 $a4. Variance Decompositions-Industrial Country Subsamples5. Variance Decompositions-Emerging Economy Subsamples; 6. Variance Decompositions-Other Developing Economy Subsamples; Figures; 1. Global and Group-Specific Factors; 2. Output Growth and Estimated Factors for Selected Countries; 3. Average Variance Explained by the Global and Group Factors; 4. Average Variance Explained by Global and Group Factors; 5. Average Variance Explained by Global Factor; 6. Average Variance Explained by Group Specific Factors; 7. Average Variance Explained by Global and Group-Specific Factors-All Countries 327 $a8. Output Variance Explained by Global Factor9. Output Variance Explained by Group Factor 330 3 $aThis paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2008/143 606 $aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models 606 $aGlobalization 606 $aBusiness cycles$2imf 606 $aClassification Methods$2imf 606 $aCluster Analysis$2imf 606 $aConsumption$2imf 606 $aEconometric models$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aEconometrics$2imf 606 $aEconomic growth$2imf 606 $aEconomics$2imf 606 $aEmerging and frontier financial markets$2imf 606 $aFactor Models$2imf 606 $aFactor models$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aFinance: General$2imf 606 $aFinancial services industry$2imf 606 $aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aGlobalization$2imf 606 $aGlobalization: General$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Consumption$2imf 606 $aPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aPrincipal Components$2imf 606 $aSaving$2imf 606 $aWealth$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 0$aGlobalization. 615 7$aBusiness cycles 615 7$aClassification Methods 615 7$aCluster Analysis 615 7$aConsumption 615 7$aEconometric models 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aEconometrics 615 7$aEconomic growth 615 7$aEconomics 615 7$aEmerging and frontier financial markets 615 7$aFactor Models 615 7$aFactor models 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aFinance: General 615 7$aFinancial services industry 615 7$aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aGlobalization 615 7$aGlobalization: General 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Consumption 615 7$aPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aPrincipal Components 615 7$aSaving 615 7$aWealth 676 $a339.015195 700 $aKose$b Ayhan$01647842 701 $aOtrok$b Christopher$01647843 701 $aPrasad$b Eswar$0124415 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910820699303321 996 $aGlobal Business Cycles$94234736 997 $aUNINA