LEADER 06728oam 22012494 450 001 9910820348903321 005 20240402023543.0 010 $a1-4623-4159-4 010 $a1-4552-8315-0 010 $a1-283-56584-6 010 $a9786613878298 010 $a1-4552-1767-0 035 $a(CKB)2550000000102896 035 $a(EBL)1587215 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940846 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11494018 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940846 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10955710 035 $a(PQKB)11589086 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1587215 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10556875 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL387829 035 $a(OCoLC)867927241 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2011032 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1587215 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000102896 100 $a20020129d2011 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aRecession and Policy Transmission to Latin American Tourism : $eDoes Expanded Travel to Cuba Offset Crisis Spillovers? /$fAndy Wolfe, Rafael Romeu 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2011. 215 $a1 online resource (53 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/11/32 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4552-1768-9 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. An Analytical Framework; III. Data; Table 1. Arrivals by Selected Regions and OECD Groups; Table 2. OECD Groupings by Labor Market Characteristics; Figure 1. U.S. Unemployment and Tourist Arrivals by Caribbean Country Groups; Figure 2. OECD Unemployment Grouped by Labor Market Characteristics; Figure 3. Tests for Unit Roots in Tourist Arrivals; Figure 4. OECD Real Wage Changes Against Hotel Price Inflation, 2009; IV. Empirical Results; Table 3. OLS Regressions of Tourism Arrivals on OECD Unemployment 327 $aTable 4. Estimates of the Determinants of Tourist ArrivalsTable 5. Model Fit of Tourist Arrivals; Table 6. Estimates of the Consumer Elasticity of Substitution; V. The Role of Changing U.S. Travel Costs to Cuba; Figure 5. Arrivals from U.S. and Close Relatives to Cuba, 1990-2009; Figure 6. Arrivals from Cubans Abroad and the Rest of the World, 2005-09; Figure 7. Income Per-Capita of OECD Countries and Cubans; Figure 8. Revenue per Tourist, Cuba and Dominican Republic; Figure 9. Customs Revenue Schedule, Selected Caribbean Countries; Table 7. Consular Fees for Selected LAC Countries 327 $aVI. ConclusionsAppendix I; References; Footnotes 330 3 $aThis study measures the impact of changing economic conditions in OECD countries on tourist arrivals to countries/destinations in Latin America and the Caribbean. A model of utility maximization across labor, consumption of goods and services at home, and consumption of tourism services across monopolistically competitive destinations abroad is presented. The model yields estimable equations arrivals as a function of OECD economic conditions and the elasticity of substitution across tourist destinations. Estimates suggest median tourism arrivals decline by at least three to five percent in response to a one percent increase in OECD unemployment, even after controlling for declines in OECD consumption and output gaps. Arrivals to individual destination are driven by differing exposure to OECD country groups sharing similar business cycle characteristics. Estimates of the elasticity of substitution suggest that tourism demand is highly price sensitive, and that a variety of costs to delivering tourism services drive market share losses in uncompetitive destinations. One recent cost change, the 2009 easing of restrictions on U.S. travel to Cuba, supported a small (countercyclical) boost to Cuba?s arrivals of U.S. non-family travel, as well as a pre-existing surge in family travel (of Cuban origin). Despite the US becoming Cuba?s second highest arrival source, Cuban policymakers have significant scope for lowering the relatively high costs of family travel from the United States. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2011/032 606 $aTourism$zLatin America$xEconometric models 606 $aBusiness cycles$zLatin America$xEconometric models 606 $aGlobal Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 606 $aTourists$zOECD countries$xEconometric models 606 $aEuropeans$xTravel$zLatin America$xEconometric models 606 $aLabor$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aIndustries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism$2imf 606 $aUnemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search$2imf 606 $aSports$2imf 606 $aGambling$2imf 606 $aRestaurants$2imf 606 $aRecreation$2imf 606 $aTourism$2imf 606 $aAggregate Factor Income Distribution$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Consumption$2imf 606 $aSaving$2imf 606 $aWealth$2imf 606 $aLabour$2imf 606 $aincome economics$2imf 606 $aHospitality, leisure & tourism industries$2imf 606 $aIncome$2imf 606 $aUnemployment rate$2imf 606 $aConsumption$2imf 606 $aUnemployment$2imf 606 $aEconomics$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aTourism$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 0$aGlobal Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. 615 0$aTourists$xEconometric models. 615 0$aEuropeans$xTravel$xEconometric models. 615 7$aLabor 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aIndustries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism 615 7$aUnemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search 615 7$aSports 615 7$aGambling 615 7$aRestaurants 615 7$aRecreation 615 7$aTourism 615 7$aAggregate Factor Income Distribution 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Consumption 615 7$aSaving 615 7$aWealth 615 7$aLabour 615 7$aincome economics 615 7$aHospitality, leisure & tourism industries 615 7$aIncome 615 7$aUnemployment rate 615 7$aConsumption 615 7$aUnemployment 615 7$aEconomics 700 $aWolfe$b Andy$01674633 701 $aRomeu$b Rafael$01630339 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bWestern Hemisphere Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910820348903321 996 $aRecession and Policy Transmission to Latin American Tourism$94039597 997 $aUNINA