LEADER 09066oam 22013814 450 001 9910820348703321 005 20240402023546.0 010 $a1-4639-6191-X 010 $a1-4639-6650-4 010 $a1-283-53591-2 010 $a9786613848369 010 $a1-4639-9471-0 035 $a(CKB)2550000000102389 035 $a(EBL)1587279 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000674639 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11444368 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000674639 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10662339 035 $a(PQKB)11754712 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1587279 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1587279 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10556873 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL384836 035 $a(OCoLC)867927547 035 $a(IMF)REOAFREE2011002 035 $a(IMF)REOAFREA2011002 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000102389 100 $a20020129d2011 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aRegional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Sub-Saharan Africa : $eSustaining the Expansion 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2011. 215 $a1 online resource (115 p.) 225 1 $aRegional Economic Outlook 225 0$aWorld economic and financial surveys 300 $a"Oct 11." 311 $a1-61635-125-X 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; Abbreviations; Acknowledgments; 1. Sustaining the Expansion; Introduction and Summary; Growth with Risks; Tables; 1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Macroeconomic Aggregates, 2004-12; Figures; 1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Output Growth; 1.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Macroeconomic Indicators, December 2005-June 2011; 1.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: CPI Inflation, 2011 vs. 2010; 1.4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Food Inflation vs. CPI Inflation; 1.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Changes in Policy Interest Rates; 1.6. Sub-Saharan Africa, World: Changes in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, June 2010-11 327 $a1.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in Reserves, June 2010-111.8. Sub-Saharan Africa: Index of Monetary Conditions vs. Nonfood Inflation, June 2011; 1.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall Fiscal Balance (Excluding Grants) of Oil Importers, 2009-10 vs. 2011-12; 1.10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall Fiscal Balance (Excluding Grants) of Oil Importers, 2004-12; Risks to the Outlook; 1.11. Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall Fiscal Balance (Excluding Grants) of Oil Exporters, 2007-12; 1.12. Sub-Saharan Africa: External Current Account, 2004-12; 1.2. Change in Outlook for Commodity Prices, 2011-12 327 $a1.13. Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth Prospects to 2012Policy Challenges; 1.14. Sub-Saharan Africa: Primary Balance vs. Debt-Stabilizing Primary Balance, 2004-12; 1.15. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real Government Expenditure Growth, 2004-12; 2. How Inclusive Has Africa's Recent High-Growth Episode Been?; Introduction and Summary; 2.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth; 2.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Average Change in US1.25 Poverty Headcount and Average per Capita GDP Growth, 1995-2010; The Growth-Poverty Disconnect in Sub-Saharan Africa: More Apparent than Real? 327 $a2.3. Growth and the Evolution of Headcount Poverty Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1995-20102.4. Growth, Infant Mortality, and Human Development Index; Insights from Case Studies; 2.5. Growth Incidence Curves of Real Household Consumption per Capita; 2.1. Macroeconomic, Poverty, and Consumption Aggregates in Sample Countries; 2.6 Vietnam's Growth Incidence Curve, 1993-2002; 2.2. Log Household Consumption Determinants (Most Recent Survey); 2.7. Ghana: Density Estimates of the Consumption Distribution by Quartile, 2005; 2.8. Consumption Value of Characteristics of the Poorest Quartile 327 $a2.9. Total Employment to Working-Age Population RatioNew Evidence on the Evolution of Real Income in SSA from Engel Curves; 2.3. Employment Indicators; 2.10. Food Expenditure Share and Household Consumption Expenditure per Capita in a Sample of 84 Countries, 2010; 2.11. Ghana: Food Expenditures as a Share of Total Household Consumption by Deciles of the Total Household Consumption Distribution; 2.12. Engel Curve for Ghana Estimated Using Data for the Period 1998-2005; 2.4. Engel Curves for Food in Ghana over the Period 1991-2005 327 $a2.5. Engel Curves for Food in Cameroon, Ghana, Uganda, and Zambia 330 3 $aThis year looks set to be another encouraging one for most sub-Saharan African economies. Reflecting mainly strong demand but also elevated commodity prices, the region's economy is set to expand by more than 5¼ percent in 2011. For 2012, the IMF staff's baseline projection is for growth to be higher at 5¾ percent, owing to one-off boosts to production in a number of countries. There are, however, specters at the feast: the increase in global food and fuel prices, amplified by drought affecting parts of the region, has hit the budgets of the poor and sparked rising inflation, and hesitations in the global recovery threaten to weaken export and growth prospects. The projection for 2012 for the region is highly contingent on global economic growth being sustained at about 4 percent. A further slowing of growth in advanced economies, curtailing global demand, would generate significant headwinds for the region's ongoing expansion, with more globally integrated countries likely to be most affected. Policies in the coming months need to tread a fine line between addressing the challenges that strong growth and recent exogenous shocks have engendered and warding off the adverse effects of another global downturn. In some slower-growing, mostly middle-income countries without binding financial constraints, policies should clearly remain supportive of output growth, even more so if global growth sputters. Provided the global economy experiences the currently predicted slow and steady growth, most of the region's low-income countries should focus squarely on medium-term considerations in setting fiscal policy while tightening monetary policy wherever nonfood inflation has climbed above single digits. In the event of a global downturn, subject to financing constraints, policies in these countries should focus on maintaining planned spending initiatives, while allowing automatic stabilizers to operate on the revenue side. For the region's oil exporters, better terms of trade provide a good opportunity to build up policy buffers against further price volatility. 410 0$aRegional Economic Outlook 517 3 $aSub-Saharan Africa 606 $aEconomic forecasting$zAfrica, Sub-Saharan 606 $aEconomic development$zAfrica, Sub-Saharan 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aLabor$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aTrade: General$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Consumption$2imf 606 $aSaving$2imf 606 $aWealth$2imf 606 $aUrban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General$2imf 606 $aAggregate Factor Income Distribution$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aLabour$2imf 606 $aincome economics$2imf 606 $aSocial welfare & social services$2imf 606 $aConventional peg$2imf 606 $aExchange rate arrangements$2imf 606 $aConsumption$2imf 606 $aFloating exchange rates$2imf 606 $aExports$2imf 606 $aInternational trade$2imf 606 $aNational accounts$2imf 606 $aEconomics$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aIncome$2imf 606 $aIncome economics$2imf 607 $aSouth Africa$2imf 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 615 0$aEconomic development 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aLabor 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aTrade: General 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Consumption 615 7$aSaving 615 7$aWealth 615 7$aUrban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General 615 7$aAggregate Factor Income Distribution 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aLabour 615 7$aincome economics 615 7$aSocial welfare & social services 615 7$aConventional peg 615 7$aExchange rate arrangements 615 7$aConsumption 615 7$aFloating exchange rates 615 7$aExports 615 7$aInternational trade 615 7$aNational accounts 615 7$aEconomics 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aIncome 615 7$aIncome economics 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910820348703321 996 $aRegional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Sub-Saharan Africa$94039595 997 $aUNINA