LEADER 05335oam 22012854 450 001 9910820340103321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-4623-1251-9 010 $a1-4527-8549-X 010 $a1-282-04589-X 010 $a1-4519-0557-2 010 $a9786613797674 035 $a(CKB)3360000000442246 035 $a(EBL)3014253 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000948576 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11576949 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000948576 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10947820 035 $a(PQKB)11664389 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3014253 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3012492 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2005002 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2005002 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000442246 100 $a20020129d2005 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries /$fStephan Danninger, Annette Kyobe, M. Cangiano 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2005. 215 $a1 online resource (34 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"January 2005." 311 $a1-4518-6021-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 32-33). 327 $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. VARIETIES OF COUNTRY INSURANCE""; ""A. Capital Controls""; ""B. Self-Insurance""; ""C. Private Insurance""; ""D. IMF-Led Packages""; ""E. Regional Swap Agreements""; ""III. A NEW COUNTRY INSURANCE FACILITY""; ""A. Eligibility Criteria""; ""B. Interest Rate""; ""C. Duration""; ""D. Size""; ""E. Procedures""; ""F. The Exit Problem""; ""IV. FINAL REMARKS"" 330 3 $aThis paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting interference through government corruption. The data broadly supports the model, and the results are robust to alternative explanations. The paper also constructs three indices-transparency, formality, and organizational simplicity-that characterize revenue-forecasting practices, and assesses their effectiveness in producing an upfront-that is, timely-budget envelope. More transparent and simple forecasting processes lead to early budget constraints, while formality has no measurable effect. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2005/002 606 $aFinancial crises 606 $aLiquidity (Economics) 606 $aLenders of last resort 606 $aCapital movements 606 $aAdministrative Processes in Public Organizations$2imf 606 $aBudget planning and preparation$2imf 606 $aBudget Systems$2imf 606 $aBudget$2imf 606 $aBudgeting & financial management$2imf 606 $aBudgeting$2imf 606 $aBureaucracy$2imf 606 $aCorporate crime$2imf 606 $aCorruption$2imf 606 $aCrime$2imf 606 $aCriminology$2imf 606 $aExpenditure$2imf 606 $aExpenditures, Public$2imf 606 $aNational Budget$2imf 606 $aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aPublic financial management (PFM)$2imf 606 $aRevenue administration$2imf 606 $aRevenue forecasting$2imf 606 $aRevenue$2imf 606 $aTax administration and procedure$2imf 606 $aTax policy$2imf 606 $aTaxation$2imf 606 $aTaxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General$2imf 606 $aWhite-collar crime$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aFinancial crises. 615 0$aLiquidity (Economics) 615 0$aLenders of last resort. 615 0$aCapital movements. 615 7$aAdministrative Processes in Public Organizations 615 7$aBudget planning and preparation 615 7$aBudget Systems 615 7$aBudget 615 7$aBudgeting & financial management 615 7$aBudgeting 615 7$aBureaucracy 615 7$aCorporate crime 615 7$aCorruption 615 7$aCrime 615 7$aCriminology 615 7$aExpenditure 615 7$aExpenditures, Public 615 7$aNational Budget 615 7$aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aPublic financial management (PFM) 615 7$aRevenue administration 615 7$aRevenue forecasting 615 7$aRevenue 615 7$aTax administration and procedure 615 7$aTax policy 615 7$aTaxation 615 7$aTaxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General 615 7$aWhite-collar crime 700 $aDanninger$b Stephan$01674585 701 $aCangiano$b M$01769951 701 $aKyobe$b Annette$01674586 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910820340103321 996 $aThe Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries$94245290 997 $aUNINA