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100   $a20060502d2006      uf         0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 14$aThe role of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting /$fprepared by Francis Y. Kumah
205   $a1st ed.
210   $a[Washington, D.C.] $cInternational Monetary Fund$dc2006
215   $a1 online resource (27 p.)
225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/06/175
300   $a"July 2006".
311   $a1-4518-6435-3 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC""; ""III. SEASONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMER PRICES""; ""IV. MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLATION""; ""V. CONCLUDING REMARKS""; ""References""; ""Appendix. Further Empirical Results""
330 3 $aAdequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where seasonal fluctuations of economic activity and prices are pronounced. In an application of the framework, the paper characterizes and investigates the stability of the seasonal pattern of consumer prices in the Kyrgyz Republic and estimates optimal money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad specifications of an augmented error-correction model-with and without seasonal components. Findings from the paper confirm empirical superiority (in terms of information content and contributions to policymaking) of augmented error-correction models of inflation over single-equation, Box-Jenkins-type general autoregressive seasonal models. Simulations of the estimated errorcorrection models yield optimal monetary policy paths for achieving inflation targets and demonstrate the empirical significance of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting.
410  0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/06/175.
606   $aInflation (Finance)$xForecasting
606   $aMonetary policy
615  0$aInflation (Finance)$xForecasting.
615  0$aMonetary policy.
700   $aKumah$b Francis Y$01758028
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910819865003321
996   $aThe role of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting$94196075
997   $aUNINA