LEADER 03853nam 2200733Ia 450 001 9910819561603321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-282-45814-0 010 $a1-282-93627-1 010 $a9786612936272 010 $a9786612458149 010 $a1-4008-3512-7 024 7 $a10.1515/9781400835126 035 $a(CKB)2520000000006993 035 $a(EBL)483562 035 $a(OCoLC)647874719 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000458049 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11283208 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000458049 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10438457 035 $a(PQKB)10250445 035 $a(DE-B1597)446908 035 $a(OCoLC)979579415 035 $a(DE-B1597)9781400835126 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC483562 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4968587 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL4968587 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL245814 035 $a(OCoLC)741250583 035 $a(EXLCZ)992520000000006993 100 $a20090504d2010 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aForbidden fruit $ecounterfactuals and international relations /$fRichard Ned Lebow 205 $aCourse Book 210 $aPrinceton $cPrinceton University Press$dc2010 215 $a1 online resource (345 p.) 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a0-691-13290-9 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $t Frontmatter -- $tContents -- $tAcknowledgments -- $tPART ONE -- $tCHAPTER ONE. Making Sense of the World -- $tCHAPTER TWO. Counterfactual Thought Experiments -- $tPART TWO -- $tChapter Three. Franz Ferdinand Found Alive: World War I Unnecessary -- $tChapter Four. Leadership and the End of the Cold War: Did It Have to End This Way? -- $tPART THREE -- $tCHAPTER FIVE. Scholars and Causation 1 -- $tCHAPTER SIX. Scholars and Causation 2 -- $tCHAPTER EIGHT. Heil to the Chief: Sinclair Lewis, Philip Roth, and Fascism -- $tConclusions -- $tNotes -- $tIndex 330 $aCould World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, Forbidden Fruit also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's The Plot Against America to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work. 606 $aInternational relations$xResearch 606 $aWorld politics$xResearch 606 $aCold War 606 $aImaginary histories 606 $aCounterfactuals (Logic) 615 0$aInternational relations$xResearch. 615 0$aWorld politics$xResearch. 615 0$aCold War. 615 0$aImaginary histories. 615 0$aCounterfactuals (Logic) 676 $a327.1072 700 $aLebow$b Richard Ned$0308100 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910819561603321 996 $aForbidden Fruit$92637524 997 $aUNINA