LEADER 06819oam 22010454 450 001 9910818880803321 005 20240402050132.0 010 $a1-4623-5277-4 010 $a1-4527-7229-0 010 $a1-282-84055-X 010 $a1-4518-6961-4 010 $a9786612840555 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055008 035 $a(EBL)1607845 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000944028 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11612513 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000944028 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10982587 035 $a(PQKB)10695672 035 $a(OCoLC)815737345 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607845 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2008100 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055008 100 $a20020129d2008 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aExternal Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico : $eHow Important are U.S. Factors? /$fSebastian Sosa 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008. 215 $a1 online resource (33 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/08/100 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1415-6 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. The Econometric Model; A. Specification and Identification Strategy; B. Block Structure, Variables, and Data; C. Estimation Issues; III. The Role of U.S. Demand and Other External Shocks in Mexican Output Fluctuations..; Tables; 1. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period; 2. Size of the Shocks and Output Response in Mexico: Post-NAFTA; Figures; 1. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Industrial Production Shock; 3. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. GDP as a Proxy for U.S. Demand) 327 $a4. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. Imports as a Proxy for U.S. Demand)2. Response of Real Output to a U.S. GDP Shock; 5. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. Real Interest Rate as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions); 3. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Imports Shock; 6. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using VIX Volatility Index as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions) 327 $a7. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using Junk Bond Yields as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions)8. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: 1980Q1-2007Q2; 9. Size of the Shocks and Output Response in Mexico: 1980Q1-2007Q2; 4. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Demand Shock (Post-NAFTA and 1980-2007); IV. Capturing U.S. Demand Linkages to Mexico: Which U.S. Variables Help Explain Fluctuations in Mexican Economic Activity?; A. Bivariate VARs: Variance Decomposition Analysis; B. Synchronization Between the U.S. and Mexican Economies 327 $a10. Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables: Bivariate VARs11. Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables: Bivariate VARs; 5. Synchronization Between Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables; 12. Cross Correlations of Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables; 13. Cross Correlations of Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables; 6. Synchronization Between Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables; V. U.S. Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: Potential Spillovers and Channels of Transmission; 7. Synchronization Between Mexican GDP (Services) and U.S. Variables; A. Explaining Services Sector GDP, with Unrestricted VAR Models 327 $a14. Cross Correlations of Mexican GDP (Services) and U.S. Variables15. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services; 16. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services (Using U.S. GDP as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 8. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. Industrial Production Shock; 17. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services (Using U.S. Imports as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 9. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. GDP Shock; 10. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. Imports Shock; B. Channels Other Than External Trade? 327 $aVI. Concluding Remarks 330 3 $aThis paper examines the relative importance of external shocks as sources of business cycle fluctuations in Mexico, and identifies the dynamic responses of domestic output to foreign disturbances. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that U.S. shocks explain a large share of Mexico's macroeconomic fluctuations after NAFTA. This partly reflects greater trade integration-but also Mexico's "Great Moderation," as the country escaped its former pattern of macro-financial crises. In this period, Mexico's output fluctuations have been closely synchronized with the U.S. cycle, with a large and rapid impact of U.S. shocks on Mexican growth. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2008/100 606 $aBusiness cycles$zMexico$xEconometric models 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aIndustries: General$2imf 606 $aTrade: General$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aEconomic growth$2imf 606 $aIndustrial production$2imf 606 $aExports$2imf 606 $aImports$2imf 606 $aBusiness cycles$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aIndustries$2imf 607 $aMexico$xForeign economic relations$zUnited States$xEconometric models 607 $aMexico$xEconomic conditions$xEconometric models 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aIndustries: General 615 7$aTrade: General 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aEconomic growth 615 7$aIndustrial production 615 7$aExports 615 7$aImports 615 7$aBusiness cycles 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aIndustries 676 $a338.542 700 $aSosa$b Sebastian$01643706 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910818880803321 996 $aExternal Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico$94053517 997 $aUNINA