LEADER 05065oam 2200613 a 450 001 9910818697603321 005 20010404122632.0 010 $a979-84-00-64951-6 010 $a0-313-00277-0 024 7 $a10.5040/9798400649516 035 $a(CKB)111056485429170 035 $a(OCoLC)614715171 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebrary10020882 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000152941 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11165177 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000152941 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10392569 035 $a(PQKB)10479271 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3000750 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10020882 035 $a(OCoLC)55143237 035 $a(OCoLC)43555357 035 $a(DLC)BP9798400649516BC 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3000750 035 $a(EXLCZ)99111056485429170 100 $a20000210e20002024 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aFailing the crystal ball test $ethe Carter administration and the fundamentalist revolution in Iran /$fOfira Seliktar 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWestport, Conn. :$cPraeger,$d2000. 210 2$aLondon :$cBloomsbury Publishing,$d2024 215 $a1 online resource (xxi, 245 pages) 300 $aBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph 311 $a0-275-96872-3 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [195]-225) and index. 327 $aCover -- Failing the Crystal Ball Test -- Contents -- Preface -- Abbreviations -- Introduction: The Theory and Practice of Predicting Political Change -- 1 Theories of Political Change and Predictions of Change: Methodological Problems -- METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF TRACKING CHANGES IN A COLLECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEM -- THE DIMENSIONS OF A COLLECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEM: EXISTENTIAL IMPERATIVES AS VALIDITY CLAIMS -- THE PROCESS OF LEGITIMIZING A COLLECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEM: THE DISCURSIVE APPROACH -- THE PROCESS OF DELEGITIMATION: THE SYSTEMIC AND INDIVIDUAL LEVEL VIEW -- Systemic Level Mechanisms -- Individual Level Mechanisms -- ACTIVATING THE PROCESS OF DELEGITIMATION: TRIGGER CONDITIONS OF CHANGE -- THE NATURE OF THE DELEGITIMATION DISCOURSE: SYMBOLS AND SUBSTANCE -- THE TIMETABLE OF THE DELEGITIMATION DISCOURSE: CONTINUOUS AND REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE -- THE PROCESS OF TRANSVALUATION: REFORMIST AND RADICAL -- 2 Paradigmatic Views of Political Change: Developmentalism vs. Dependency -- THE DEVELOPMENTAL VIEW OF CHANGE: LINEAR PROGRESSION TOWARD THE WEST -- THE DEPENDENCY VIEW OF CHANGE: LINEAR PROGRESSION TOWARD A SOCIALIST UTOPIA -- HEADED TOWARD CONVERGENCE: REDEFINING THE DIRECTION OF POLITICAL CHANGE -- LEANING TO THE LEFT: THE MYTH AND REALITY OF THE OBJECTIVE SOCIAL SCIENTIST -- FROM REALPOLITIK TO MORALPOLITIK: THE INTELLECTUAL BASE OF NEW INTERNATIONALISM -- 3 Road Testing New Internationalism: The Iran Policy of the Carter Administration -- CRUSADING AGAINST REALPOLITIK: MAINSTREAMING THE NEW INTERNATIONALISM VISION -- THE UNLIKELY CRUSADER: JIMMY CARTER AND THE EMBRACE OF NEW INTERNATIONALISM -- A COAT OF MANY COLORS: THE SHAPING OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S IRANIAN POLICY -- THE RESURGENT CONGRESS: THE AWACS SALE AS A REFERENDUM ON THE SHAH'S LEGITIMACY -- BACK HOME: THE SHAH AND THE OPPOSITION TAKE MEASURE OF THE "CARTER REVOLUTION" IN FOREIGN POLICY. 327 $aWASHINGTON'S CHALLENGE: THE POLITICS OF THE PREDICTIVE PROCESS -- 4 In the Eye of the Storm: The Carter Administration and the Iranian Revolution -- THE CYCLICAL RIOTS: THE VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE CYCLICAL RIOTS: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- THE MASS PROTEST: THE VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE MASS PROTEST: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- THE GENERAL STRIKES: THE VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE GENERAL STRIKES: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- THE ENDGAME: A VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE ENDGAME: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- 5 Dealing with Chaos: The Carter Administration and the Successor Regime in Iran -- THE SHORT SPRING OF THE MODERATES: THE EMERGENCE OF A DUAL GOVERNMENT -- MAKING SENSE OF THE REVOLUTIONARY AFTERMATH: WASHINGTON'S GUIDE FOR THE PERPLEXED -- THE HOT SUMMER: THE FUNDAMENTALIST TAKEOVER -- WHAT'S IN A NAME?: WASHINGTON BETS ON THE MODERATES -- THE LONG FALL: THE PUSH FOR A FUNDAMENTALIST HEGEMONY -- THE UNWELCOME VISITOR: THE POLITICS OF THE SHAH'S ADMISSION TO THE UNITED STATES AND THE SEIZURE OF THE EMBASSY -- 6 Reflections on Predictive Failures -- PARADIGMATIC FAILURE -- POLICY FAILURE -- INTELLIGENCE FAILURE -- UNDERSTANDING THE "GREAT UNKNOWN": THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION AND PREDICTING POLITICAL CHANGE IN THE FUTURE -- References -- Index -- About the Author. 606 $aIslamic fundamentalism$zIran 607 $aUnited States$xForeign relations$zIran 607 $aIran$xForeign relations$zUnited States 615 0$aIslamic fundamentalism 676 $a327.73055/09/047 700 $aSeliktar$b Ofira$0659156 801 0$bDLC 801 1$bDLC 801 2$bDLC 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910818697603321 996 $aFailing the crystal ball test$94067909 997 $aUNINA