LEADER 07014nam 2200637Ia 450 001 9910818350203321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-280-24655-3 010 $a9786610246557 010 $a0-309-58267-9 010 $a0-585-16845-8 035 $a(CKB)110986584750980 035 $a(OCoLC)70720398 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebrary10054963 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000156446 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11160003 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000156446 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10129364 035 $a(PQKB)10755868 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3375972 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3375972 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10054963 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL24655 035 $a(OCoLC)923260145 035 $a(EXLCZ)99110986584750980 100 $a19890928d1989 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 00$aFood aid projections for the decade of the 1990s $ereport of an ad hoc panel meeting, October 6 & 7, 1988 /$fBoard on Science and Technology for International Development, Office of International Affairs, National Research Council 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aWashington, D.C. $cNational Academy Press$d[1989] 215 $a1 online resource (x, 183 pages) $cillustrations 300 $aPanel chairman: Raymond F. Hopkins. 311 0 $a0-309-04268-2 320 $aIncludes bibliographies. 327 $aFood Aid Projections for the Decade of the 1990s -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- PRINCIPAL FINDINGS -- DEFINITIONS OF FOOD AID -- METHODOLOGIES -- DEMOGRAPHIC CONSIDERATIONS -- NUTRITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS -- ESTIMATES COMPARED -- SHOCKS THAT COULD AFFECT FUTURE PROJECTIONS -- Weather and Climate -- Other External Factors -- Food Aid Projections for the 1990s: Workshop Proceedings -- INTRODUCTION -- DEFINITIONS -- METHODOLOGY -- FOOD COMMODITY TRADE AND AID FORECASTING -- OUTPUT OF THE MODELS -- PRESENTATION OF THE IFPRI FIGURES -- Hannah Ezekiel, International Food Policy Research Institute -- PRESENTATION OF FAO FIGURES -- Richard Perkins, Commodities and Trade Division -- PRESENTATION OF WORLD BANK FIGURES -- Ronald Duncan, International Commodity Markets Division -- PRESENTATION OF THE FAPRI FIGURES -- W. Meyers, Center for Agriculture and Rural Development, Iowa State University -- PRESENTATION OF USDA FIGURES -- R. Nightingale and R. Trostle, Economic Research Service -- PRESENTATION OF IIASA FIGURES -- K. Frohberg, OECD, Paris -- MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT COMMENTARY -- Lawrence Klein, Economics Department, University of Pennsylvania -- DEMOGRAPHIC CONSIDERATIONS COMMENTARY -- Robert Chen, Alan Shawn Feinstein World Hunger Program -- NUTRITIONAL CONTEXT COMMENTARY -- Per Pinstrup-Andersen, Food and Nutrition Policy Program, Cornell University -- TECHNICAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT -- Donald Plucknett, Senior Scientific Adviser, World Bank -- CLIMATIC IMPACT CONTEXT -- Norman J. Rosenberg, Climate Resources Program, Resources for the Future -- CLIMATE CHANGE -- DROUGHT IMPACT -- AFRICAN REGIONAL CONTEXT -- Christopher Delgado, IFPRI -- ESTIMATING FOOD AID -- Estimates -- USDA Projection to 2000 -- World Bank Projection -- IIASA/BLS Estimate -- IFPRI Estimate -- Nutritional Need Estimates -- FAO Estimate. 327 $aPOINTS OF CONSENSUS REACHED BY THE WORKSHOP -- REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY -- Appendix A Medium Term Estimates of Demand-Based Food Aid Requirements and Their Variability -- 1 INTRODUCTION -- Scope of Study -- Nature of Food Aid -- Estimation of Food Aid Requirements -- The Basic Model -- Cereal Exports and Commercial Cereal Imports -- Changes in Scope and Methodology -- 2 TREND ESTIMATES -- High and Low Estimates -- The Basic Estimate -- Food Aid and Commercial Imports -- Food Aid Needs by Country Income Class -- Food Aid for Low Income Countries and Commercial Imports -- 3 VARIABILITY OF FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS -- Variability in Individual Countries -- Variability in Country Groups -- REFERENCES -- Appendix B Food Aid Requirements of Developing Countries -- Results of the Reference Run -- Impact of Trade Liberalization on Hunger -- Impact of Aid on Hunger -- REFERENCES -- Appendix C Commodity Market Outlook and Trade Implications Indicated by the FAPRI Analysis -- INTRODUCTION -- MODEL DESCRIPTION -- ASSUMPTIONS -- Macroeconomic Assumptions -- Farm Policy Assumptions -- Yield Assumptions -- COMMODITY MARKET PROJECTIONS -- DETAILED REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS -- Africa and Middle East -- Latin America -- Asia -- Centrally Planned Economies -- CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS -- DOCUMENTATION AND REFERENCES -- Appendix D Outlook for Grains and Soybeans to 2000 -- INTRODUCTION -- MODEL DESCRIPTION -- ASSUMPTIONS -- SIMULATION RESULTS -- CONCLUSIONS -- Appendix E Workshop Statement -- ESTIMATION OF FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS: SOME BASIC ISSUES -- NUTRITION-BASED ESTIMATES OF FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS -- FAO'S LONG-TERM AGRICULTURAL PROJECTION MODEL: AGRICULTURE TOWARD 2000 -- FAO'S MEDIUM-TERM COMMODITY PROJECTIONS: THE WORLD FOOD MODEL -- ANNEX: EXCERPTS FROM AGRICULTURE: TOWARD 2000 -- Methodology of Projections: A Summary Note -- Evaluation of Production Projections. 327 $aFinal Adjustments -- Input Requirements -- Employment and Mechanization -- Investments -- Appendix F Food Aid Needs during the 1990s -- GLOBAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY FACTORS -- World Demand -- World Supply -- World Trade Prospects -- Excess Capacity Remains -- Prices -- OUTLOOK FOR DEMAND, SUPPLY, AND TRADE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES -- Demand in Developing Countries -- Supply in Developing Countries -- Natural Resource and Technology Concerns -- Trade Prospects for Developing Countries -- CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- Appendix G A Discussion of Long-Term Agricultural Commodity Forecasts and Food Aid Needs -- PREFACE -- INTRODUCTION -- MODEL DESIGN AND SCOPE -- POLICY IMPLEMENTATION -- MODEL INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS -- MODELS RESULTS AND LONG TERM OUTLOOK -- Prices -- Production -- Trade -- Food Aid Needs -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES. 330 $aPresents the results of a meeting held by the Board on Science and Technology for International Development. At this meeting, six groups of modelers presented their estimates of the food aid/food commodity trade picture during 1991-2000, based on their own database and assumptions about trends in global policy, climate, population, and economics. 606 $aFood relief$xForecasting 606 $aFood supply$xForecasting 615 0$aFood relief$xForecasting. 615 0$aFood supply$xForecasting. 676 $a363.8/83/09172401 701 $aHopkins$b Raymond F$0243670 712 02$aNational Research Council (U.S.).$bBoard on Science and Technology for International Development. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910818350203321 996 $aFood aid projections for the decade of the 1990s$94113056 997 $aUNINA